TD 10...Back Again

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jabber
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#601 Postby jabber » Wed Aug 17, 2005 3:33 pm

jabber wrote:
WeatherEmperor wrote:
Scorpion wrote:This wave is really ticking me off, it needs to develop im getting sick and tired of waiting.


I feel your frustration Scorpion. Im starting to get really iritated at it. Either develop or dont develop, I hate when it just cant make up its mind already.

<RICKY>


Reminds me of another system lately... hummm what was her name.


I also wish I could get a shear map that shows actual shear in the area... the ones I use show this system should have very little shear near it currently.


http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html
http://www.wunderground.com/data/640x480/atlm_shear.gif
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#602 Postby WeatherEmperor » Wed Aug 17, 2005 3:34 pm

HURAKAN wrote:
WeatherEmperor wrote:
Scorpion wrote:This wave is really ticking me off, it needs to develop im getting sick and tired of waiting.


I feel your frustration Scorpion. Im starting to get really iritated at it. Either develop or dont develop, I hate when it just cant make up its mind already.

<RICKY>


I think EX-TD 10 will reply to your comments in this way,

"Well, if I had the ideal conditions, or at least something close to it, I would have already become Jose and I will be a happy hurricane transversing the Atlantic. But because the only thing good I have to work with is hot sea surface temperatures, get use to only see sporadic burst of convection."


well since it doesnt have a mind of its own and cant speak, all that is just imaginary like a cartoonist bringing his cartoon art to life.

<RICKY> :D
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#603 Postby storms in NC » Wed Aug 17, 2005 3:34 pm

jabber wrote:
WeatherEmperor wrote:
Scorpion wrote:This wave is really ticking me off, it needs to develop im getting sick and tired of waiting.


I feel your frustration Scorpion. Im starting to get really iritated at it. Either develop or dont develop, I hate when it just cant make up its mind already.

<RICKY>


Reminds me of another system lately... hummm what was her name.


IRENE?LOL

Well I have to go to work and hope I don't have to come back to 5 or 6 pages later like I did yesterday and was only gone2 1/2 hours.
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#604 Postby InimanaChoogamaga » Wed Aug 17, 2005 3:36 pm

Watching TD 10 is worse than waiting for the cable guy. When will he arrive between 8am and 1PM? Will he even show at all? :eek:
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#605 Postby dwg71 » Wed Aug 17, 2005 4:14 pm

InimanaChoogamaga wrote:Watching TD 10 is worse than waiting for the cable guy. When will he arrive between 8am and 1PM? Will he even show at all? :eek:


Well if his window was from 11AM to the 5PM advisory, then he called to reschedule, because he didnt make it at 5PM, just a wave.
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#606 Postby Ivanhater » Wed Aug 17, 2005 4:59 pm

folks, ive been watching the low and i still dont see a wnw motion and certainly not a 300 motion....if you look closely you can see the low with the new blow up convection to the nw side

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
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#607 Postby Sanibel » Wed Aug 17, 2005 5:03 pm

A weak system failing to refire in low shear is probably being horizontally sheared (subsidence) - or was just weak by nature to begin with.

To me this one looks more likely to dissipate than Irene, but as long as it has a spiral it should reflare. The upper is nicely curved like a thin ghost. All we can do is wait for the next re-fire...
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#608 Postby Ivanhater » Wed Aug 17, 2005 5:05 pm

Sanibel wrote:A weak system failing to refire in low shear is probably being horizontally sheared (subsidence) - or was just weak by nature to begin with.

To me this one looks more likely to dissipate than Irene, but as long as it has a spiral it should reflare. The upper is nicely curved like a thin ghost. All we can do is wait for the next re-fire...


its already in the process of another flare
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#609 Postby WeatherEmperor » Wed Aug 17, 2005 5:06 pm

ivanhater wrote:folks, ive been watching the low and i still dont see a wnw motion and certainly not a 300 motion....if you look closely you can see the low with the new blow up convection to the nw side

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html


I know what you are talking about because I see the same as you do on that loop. Perhaps the overall motion for several days averaged out would be WNW.

<RICKY>
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#610 Postby Ivanhater » Wed Aug 17, 2005 5:08 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:
ivanhater wrote:folks, ive been watching the low and i still dont see a wnw motion and certainly not a 300 motion....if you look closely you can see the low with the new blow up convection to the nw side

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html


I know what you are talking about because I see the same as you do on that loop. Perhaps the overall motion for several days averaged out would be WNW.

<RICKY>



ya, but looking at the latest models...the xtrap is even off, and its already moving south of the models.....im just not seeing the 300
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#611 Postby wxman57 » Wed Aug 17, 2005 5:08 pm

ivanhater wrote:folks, ive been watching the low and i still dont see a wnw motion and certainly not a 300 motion....if you look closely you can see the low with the new blow up convection to the nw side

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html


Let me tell you how I measured 299 deg motion. I have a 20" flat panel monitor on which I'm running GARP 2.1. I can display a high-res satellite image with 1-deg lat/lon lines overlaid. I ran a visible loop from sunrise to early afternoon. On the first image, I lock my cursor onto the location of the small vortex. I then advance the loop slowly to the end, following the vortex along. On the last image, I position my cursor over the vortex. On the bottom of my screen is the heading between the first and last images. That came to 298.7 degrees.

There's no guessing involved, with the exception of finding the center toward the last images, as it's difficult to pinpoint exactly. I don't watch individual thunderstorms, as they won't give the motion of the vortex. They'll trick your eyes, though. If I just watch the loop, it LOOKS like the center is moving due west as of the past 2-3 hours. But when I zoom in and look for the VORTEX, I can see that the thunderstorm on the western side of the vortex has been rotating southward for the past 2-3 hours, giving the illusion that the vortex, itself, is moving westward. The vortex has continued moving WNW.

I would say that the 299 degree estimate is accurate to within 5 degrees, with the margin of error due to the poorly-defined center.
Last edited by wxman57 on Wed Aug 17, 2005 5:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#612 Postby WeatherEmperor » Wed Aug 17, 2005 5:09 pm

Currently I am not seeing 300 motion either. not at all.

<RICKY>
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#613 Postby Ivanhater » Wed Aug 17, 2005 5:13 pm

wxman57 wrote:
ivanhater wrote:folks, ive been watching the low and i still dont see a wnw motion and certainly not a 300 motion....if you look closely you can see the low with the new blow up convection to the nw side

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html


Let me tell you how I measured 299 deg motion. I have a 20" flat panel monitor on which I'm running GARP 2.1. I can display a high-res satellite image with 1-deg lat/lon lines overlaid. I ran a visible loop from sunrise to early afternoon. On the first image, I lock my cursor onto the location of the small vortex. I then advance the loop slowly to the end, following the vortex along. On the last image, I position my cursor over the vortex. On the bottom of my screen is the heading between the first and last images. That came to 298.7 degrees. There's no guessing involved, with the exception of finding the center toward the last images, as it's difficult to pinpoint exactly. I don't watch individual thunderstorms, as they won't give the motion of the vortex. They'll trick your eyes, though.

I would say that the 299 degree estimate is accurate to within 5 degrees, with the margin of error due to the poorly-defined center.



well im not going to get into another motion debate with you since last time another storm was heading west and you told me it wasnt and it actually was moving west and you accused me of having a desire for a landfall which is totally absurd
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#614 Postby wxman57 » Wed Aug 17, 2005 5:15 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:Currently I am not seeing 300 motion either. not at all.

<RICKY>


You have to track the vortex, not the thunderstorms. There is a cell west of the vortex that's moving southward, giving the appearance that the vortex is moving westward. That thunderstorm moved from NW of the vortex to SW of the vortex over the last few hours. But the vortex continues moving WNW. You won't be able to see the vortex well except on high-res visible imagery, and then it helps to have a lat/lon grid overlaid.

I estimate the vortex center at 17.3N/56.9W presently. At sunrise, it was near 16.9N/56W. So about 0.4N and 0.9W through the day today. Definitely not to the west.
Last edited by wxman57 on Wed Aug 17, 2005 5:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#615 Postby Ivanhater » Wed Aug 17, 2005 5:16 pm

and actually ive been tracking the low before the new thunderstorm and i have yet to see wnw at 300
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#616 Postby wxman57 » Wed Aug 17, 2005 5:18 pm

ivanhater wrote:and actually ive been tracking the low before the new thunderstorm and i have yet to see wnw at 300


What do you estimate the center position to be at 12Z and again on the last visible image? See my edited positions above.
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#617 Postby Sanibel » Wed Aug 17, 2005 5:20 pm

Estimate 275* - At most 280*


Better weak outflow to north...
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#618 Postby Ivanhater » Wed Aug 17, 2005 5:23 pm

wxman57 wrote:
ivanhater wrote:and actually ive been tracking the low before the new thunderstorm and i have yet to see wnw at 300


What do you estimate the center position to be at 12Z and again on the last visible image? See my edited positions above.


read my post above wxman....i lost my respect for you when you accused me of having a desire for a landfall, and one who has experienced the hell of ivan...i would never have a "desire" for a landfall...i will not get into a debate with you sense you cannot have a civil discussion of movement without accusing people , of which you dont know and dont know there experiences, of having "desires"
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#619 Postby elysium » Wed Aug 17, 2005 5:24 pm

The vortex is moving WNW and is on the WSW side of the system. That's unimportant. Look at the increased sysmmetrical integrity of TD 10 over the past few frames. It's in a better environment as is being forecast by the NHC. It does have remnant shear to contend with but nothing too severe. I wouldn't look for rapid intensification right away.
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#620 Postby wxman57 » Wed Aug 17, 2005 5:27 pm

Sanibel wrote:Estimate 275* - At most 280*


Better weak outflow to north...


Again, I would point you to my "method" post above. Unless you have the ability to actually follow the center using high-res visible imagery on a lat/lon grid and measure the angle on your screen, your motion estimate could be way off.
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