TD 24,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[rockyman]

what does this WNW movement so soon mean for florida?

I think it means that it will probably miss the Florida west coast and move more towards the pandhandle and northern Gulf.

unfortunately the models are underestimating the trof. The shift back east will occur on the next runs. Look at the tracks this year thus far. I believe all of them were too far west early on. I will watch this one closely!!

Actually...that's not true...Katrina was too far east early on...then shifted back west. The ridge turned out to be stronger than anticipated.

Dennis was too far west early on...

I don't think a generalization can be made.

[tampaflwx]

check out the burst of deep convection on IR imagery right now near the center of the storm...this looks like Wilma's effort at defining an inner core, because with 1001 mb but only 35mph winds she strongly desires to begin her rapid intensification process immediately.

[floridahurricaneguy]

[quandary]

I think there should be a poll for "what's your favorite W name" since (here's hoping), we'll probably only ever get to see one of them. Also possibly a "what's your favorite late alphabet name," since O and especially R, S, T, V, W never get much use.

[ronjon]

what does this WNW movement so soon mean for florida?

Good news for the Peninsula(especially Tampa southward)... I'm really skeptical that Miami sees anything now.

Way too soon to say good news for anyone from the Keys to Mobile. The model tracks will continue to shift both east and west. The only sure bet is climatology which means this storm isn't headed for TX. Everyone has to remember we're 5-6 days out - the average NHC error 5 days out is 325 miles! It is also the Fall season with upper air patterns that are highly evolving - troughs always are difficult for models to handle even in the short term (i.e. Charley). The good news is it hasn't strengthened yet and we have 5 days to prepare and watch it.

[floridahurricaneguy]

Still concerned for west coast.

Matt

When next models out?

[CHRISTY]

so i dont get it there is not going to be a trough?or this WNW movement the beginings of a turn in the future?

[TS Zack]

Southern Florida is starting to look a little better. Meaning out the woods but you never know so stay alert.

To me the Big Bend looks good for a direct hit.

If this trough is weaker than expected, don't expect a sharp recurvature till she nears the North Gulf.

[MGC]

Yep on the Fla west coast. Same trough that will weaken ridge over GOM will turn cyclone towards NE......MGC

[hicksta]

No storm will make it W past FL panhandle in late Oct...Please Note the The GFS may be Way further west but notice the E turn...Its ENE not NNE....Timeing will be everything and this sit still a W coast FL storm..

[deltadog03]

and its a GIRL!!! she will BOMB...jmo...more later tonight

[fasterdisaster]

check out the burst of deep convection on IR imagery right now near the center of the storm...this looks like Wilma's effort at defining an inner core, because with 1001 mb but only 35mph winds she strongly desires to begin her rapid intensification process immediately.

I agree, she is definitely getting her act together, and I wouldn't be surprised to see a TS at 11 PM.

[Rainband]

No storm will make it W past FL panhandle in late Oct...Please Note the The GFS may be Way further west but notice the E turn...Its ENE not NNE....Timeing will be everything and this sit still a W coast FL storm..

points of origin way different. Way far west of 24

[floridahurricaneguy]

Yep on the Fla west coast. Same trough that will weaken ridge over GOM will turn cyclone towards NE......MGC

Your saying yep to me to be concerned? I think they will flip.

Matt

[hicksta]

No storm will make it W past FL panhandle in late Oct...Please Note the The GFS may be Way further west but notice the E turn...Its ENE not NNE....Timeing will be everything and this sit still a W coast FL storm..

points of origin way different. Way far west of 24

Look at the bold[/b]

[MGC]

Yep Matt, I'd keep a very close eye on this. Just my opinion though.....MGC

[wxman57]

what does this WNW movement so soon mean for florida?

The WNW "movement" means nothing. It's just drifting around. Any motion at 1-2 mph isn't a movement, so don't take it as meaning anything now. If it starts moving off at 5-10 mph, then that's significant.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The current model runs keep this system well West of the west
coast...and hint at a panhandle event...but they will
continue to shift- perhaps further westward and then
eastward....who knows...

But it looks better for the FL West Coast for Now.
But no one should let their guard down for a forecast 5-7 days out.

[Stratosphere747]

Hicksta...

Jerry was a quirk..

Untill you see anything about a building High over Fla and no trough coming down, then west of the Mississipi river should feel a bit easier. Strange season though, but very doubtful Texas is in the mix...

Scott

[wxman57]

Southern Florida is starting to look a little better. Meaning out the woods but you never know so stay alert.

To me the Big Bend looks good for a direct hit.

If this trough is weaker than expected, don't expect a sharp recurvature till she nears the North Gulf.

I wouldn't say that south Florida is looking a little better, yet. If the storm doesn't move as quickly as forecast, then any NE turn begins from farther south, putting south Florida under the gun. Typical forecast errors for this type of system are to the left. Such weak systems tend to track right of the forecast about 70-75% of the time (per a study by Lance Wood of the Houston/Galveston NWS office).