Wave WSW of CV Islands
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ConvergenceZone
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Re: Wave WSW of CV Islands - Code Orange
wow, one thing for sure, you can't say that this wave lacks convection like we've been saying so far this year with previous years....
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hurricaneCW
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Re: Wave WSW of CV Islands - Code Orange
boca wrote:Is it normal to have this area a code orange and not be a invest yet. I find that wierd.
Maybe they'll skip the invest and go straight to TD.
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Re: Wave WSW of CV Islands - Code Orange
I was just going to mention that. I agree....
Sanibel wrote:I think I see a spin around 9N-36W on shortwave:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-ir2.html
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ConvergenceZone
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Re: Wave WSW of CV Islands - Code Orange
Maybe they'll skip the invest and go straight to TD.
Well, I know our fellow met WXMAN was saying about 4 hours ago that he didn't think this would develop into a TD in the next 48 hours. He was giving it a really low percentage. We just have to be careful not to be too fooled by convective blows up like this.. As impressive as it is, there's no evidence that it's going to sustain itself like this over the next 24 hours. Now if we wake up tomorrow and the convection looks this good, game is on............
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cycloneye
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Re: Wave WSW of CV Islands - Code Orange
TC probabilities going up.
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Nogaps 00Z
End of run has system over eastern carribean S of PR and strengthening.
**Anyone get the 00z canadian yet?
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical
End of run has system over eastern carribean S of PR and strengthening.
**Anyone get the 00z canadian yet?
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical
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Evil Jeremy
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Re: Wave WSW of CV Islands - Code Orange
Impressive blow up for sure. Based off a single look at a satellite picture, this looks like a EPAC system forming to me. Lots of convection with this one. I would say bring this up to 40% in an hour, and if the convection sticks around over the next 6-12 hours, then bring it up to code red.
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Re: Wave WSW of CV Islands - Code Orange
A little stronger on the CMC and a tad further west it seems compared to the 12z. Still looks like a re-curve candidate.
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TwisterFanatic
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Re: Wave WSW of CV Islands - Code Orange
Evil Jeremy wrote:Impressive blow up for sure. Based off a single look at a satellite picture, this looks like a EPAC system forming to me. Lots of convection with this one. I would say bring this up to 40% in an hour, and if the convection sticks around over the next 6-12 hours, then bring it up to code red.
Its already at 40% FWIW
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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cycloneye
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Re: Wave WSW of CV Islands - Code Orange
Evil Jeremy wrote:Impressive blow up for sure. Based off a single look at a satellite picture, this looks like a EPAC system forming to me. Lots of convection with this one. I would say bring this up to 40% in an hour, and if the convection sticks around over the next 6-12 hours, then bring it up to code red.
It was upped to 40% at 8 PM.
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SouthFloridawx
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Re: Wave WSW of CV Islands - Code Orange
On another note... The ITCZ is looking pretty tonight...
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Evil Jeremy
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Re: Wave WSW of CV Islands - Code Orange
TwisterFanatic wrote:Evil Jeremy wrote:Impressive blow up for sure. Based off a single look at a satellite picture, this looks like a EPAC system forming to me. Lots of convection with this one. I would say bring this up to 40% in an hour, and if the convection sticks around over the next 6-12 hours, then bring it up to code red.
Its already at 40% FWIW
My bad lol, I thought it was at 30%. On that note, how is this at 40% and still not re-invested? Are they waiting until the morning?
Last edited by Evil Jeremy on Sun Aug 01, 2010 12:26 am, edited 2 times in total.
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SFLcane
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Re:
Vortex wrote:Nogaps 00Z
End of run has system over eastern carribean S of PR and strengthening.
**Anyone get the 00z canadian yet?
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical
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TwisterFanatic
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Re: Wave WSW of CV Islands - Code Orange
Evil Jeremy wrote:TwisterFanatic wrote:Evil Jeremy wrote:Impressive blow up for sure. Based off a single look at a satellite picture, this looks like a EPAC system forming to me. Lots of convection with this one. I would say bring this up to 40% in an hour, and if the convection sticks around over the next 6-12 hours, then bring it up to code red.
Its already at 40% FWIW
My bad lol, I thought it was at 30%. On that note, how is this at 40% and still not re-invested? Are they waiting until the morning?
Everyone else is wondering this also...
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: Wave WSW of CV Islands - Code Orange
Exactly as I suspected, canadian heads NW then slows as SW passes ridging builds back in and westbound young man..Consensus is certainly growing to have a significant system in or near the bahamas in a weeks time...
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Re: Wave WSW of CV Islands - Code Orange
Two things to notice on the CMC tonight. First it finally got rid of the idea of competing vorts throughout the run and consolidates our area tonight and runs it all the way through. Second it makes it stronger.
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SouthFloridawx
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Re: Re:
SFLcane wrote:Vortex wrote:Nogaps 00Z
End of run has system over eastern carribean S of PR and strengthening.
**Anyone get the 00z canadian yet?
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical
http://i30.tinypic.com/2rxbqlh.gif
What's that other little area of low pressure heading in the direction of Florida towards the end of that run. A different wave?
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SFLcane
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Re: Wave WSW of CV Islands - Code Orange
Vortex wrote:Exactly as I suspected, canadian heads NW then slows as SW passes ridging builds back in and westbound young man..Consensus is certainly growing to have a significant system in or near the bahamas in a weeks time...
00z canadian brings it in around the carolinas.
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