2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

[CyclonicFury]

Another CCKW is expected to pass the Atlantic in about 2-3 weeks. This one will be a good test to see how favorable the Atlantic really is. The MDR usually starts to become favorable around this time per climatology, early August is still kind of early. We'll see what happens.
 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1157254803304648704

[TheStormExpert]

Things as we know are dry over the middle of the Atlantic but this might be also a reason why the majority of the EPAC systems have struggled (compared to the last few years) across the EPAC.
Something has to give and like some have said this month is the month to watch for trends as we head into the peak of the season.

https://i.imgur.com/KXWcYEe.gif

We saw this same exact issue in 2013 globally. Not sure if this can just change overnight or if it’ll last all season long. My guess is it’ll continue.

[CyclonicFury]

Things as we know are dry over the middle of the Atlantic but this might be also a reason why the majority of the EPAC systems have struggled (compared to the last few years) across the EPAC.
Something has to give and like some have said this month is the month to watch for trends as we head into the peak of the season.

https://i.imgur.com/KXWcYEe.gif

We saw this same exact issue in 2013 globally. Not sure if this can just change overnight or if it’ll last all season long. My guess is it’ll continue.

The mid-level dryness over the Atlantic will likely continue into the peak of the season BUT even with the most hostile base state it's highly unlikely the Atlantic will be as quiet as 2013 in terms of hurricanes/majors/ACE.

[Kingarabian]

Things as we know are dry over the middle of the Atlantic but this might be also a reason why the majority of the EPAC systems have struggled (compared to the last few years) across the EPAC.
Something has to give and like some have said this month is the month to watch for trends as we head into the peak of the season.

[url]https://i.imgur.com/KXWcYEe.gif[url]

2013, in the EPAC, only had one major hurricane and it wasn't until late October that it got it.

[USTropics]

Things as we know are dry over the middle of the Atlantic but this might be also a reason why the majority of the EPAC systems have struggled (compared to the last few years) across the EPAC.
Something has to give and like some have said this month is the month to watch for trends as we head into the peak of the season.

https://i.imgur.com/KXWcYEe.gif

We saw this same exact issue in 2013 globally. Not sure if this can just change overnight or if it’ll last all season long. My guess is it’ll continue.

I don't see the global issues that 2013 had. EPAC just pumped out 3 systems and WPAC will next week as well (with 1 or 2 potent typhoons at that). Also, 2013 EPAC had an issue with intensity, not number of named storms. There was only one major all season, we've seen 2 so far this year. I think there's kind of a recency bias, where things aren't quite as hyper-active as the past few years, but climatology speaking, I don't see the global tropics having the same issues as 2013.

[Hammy]

Things as we know are dry over the middle of the Atlantic but this might be also a reason why the majority of the EPAC systems have struggled (compared to the last few years) across the EPAC.
Something has to give and like some have said this month is the month to watch for trends as we head into the peak of the season.

https://i.imgur.com/KXWcYEe.gif

We saw this same exact issue in 2013 globally. Not sure if this can just change overnight or if it’ll last all season long. My guess is it’ll continue.

I don't see the global issues that 2013 had. EPAC just pumped out 3 systems and WPAC will next week as well (with 1 or 2 potent typhoons at that). Also, 2013 EPAC had an issue with intensity, not number of named storms. There was only one major all season, we've seen 2 so far this year. I think there's kind of a recency bias, where things aren't quite as hyper-active as the past few years, but climatology speaking, I don't see the global tropics having the same issues as 2013.

On top of that, this year looks more similar to 2016 than 2013 as far as the WPAC goes--fairly active subtropics rather than mostly deep tropics systems forming and then struggling.

Edit: It looks like the waves are coming off again at extremely high latitudes (20-25) yet again like they did the last few years, albeit they're doing so much later than they were those years, which is probably contributing to the delayed activity (if the models are correct) as well as causing so much SAL.

[jconsor]

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1157960851355328514

[Dylan]

 https://twitter.com/dylanfedericowx/status/1158124174201823234

[TheStormExpert]

Geez!! You’d at least expect something little showing up in the ensembles considering it’s August but I guess the MJO will play a HUGE roll this year in how much activity happens in the Atlantic.

[Hurricaneman]

2002 may be the best analog, things didn’t get going really until September

Another one activity wise may be 1999 especially if the climate models are to be believed

2013 is still a possibility if the MJO doesn’t come to the Atlantic and it stays dry in the atmosphere

[DioBrando]

See ya in 2020.

[NotSparta]

:uarrow: Geez!! You’d at least expect something little showing up in the ensembles considering it’s August but I guess the MJO will play a HUGE roll this year in how much activity happens in the Atlantic.

It's more how models won't really pick up anything until it's pretty close in

[tarheelprogrammer]

If the long range GFS is right about the shear values (it seems to be doing well with shear predictions so far this season), we may not see any activity before September. Image below:

[BYG Jacob]

Things as we know are dry over the middle of the Atlantic but this might be also a reason why the majority of the EPAC systems have struggled (compared to the last few years) across the EPAC.
Something has to give and like some have said this month is the month to watch for trends as we head into the peak of the season.

https://i.imgur.com/KXWcYEe.gif

We saw this same exact issue in 2013 globally. Not sure if this can just change overnight or if it’ll last all season long. My guess is it’ll continue.

I don't see the global issues that 2013 had. EPAC just pumped out 3 systems and WPAC will next week as well (with 1 or 2 potent typhoons at that). Also, 2013 EPAC had an issue with intensity, not number of named storms. There was only one major all season, we've seen 2 so far this year. I think there's kind of a recency bias, where things aren't quite as hyper-active as the past few years, but climatology speaking, I don't see the global tropics having the same issues as 2013.

Agreed, based on everything I’d say we are in for a fairly average season

[DioBrando]

Are you even kidding me? -_- We're not even in winter


Then, between the patches of blue comes DRY AIR, I bet

[StruThiO]

Lol. Y'all gonna be singing a completely different tune come August 20th

[CyclonicFury]

If the long range GFS is right about the shear values (it seems to be doing well with shear predictions so far this season), we may not see any activity before September. Image below:

https://i.ibb.co/zQ2p1Gx/fdsghdfghdfg.png

Considering there has only been one year in the last 50 years (1997) that had no tropical storms in August and that was during a Super El Niño which 2019 is not, that is extremely unlikely.

[DioBrando]

Lol. Y'all gonna be singing a completely different tune come August 20th

any feedback from anyone on this?

[StruThiO]

any feedback from anyone on this?

There is a reason Dr Gray chose that date for his infamous bell ringing. Conditions will become more favorable as they always do. Years where they don't, like 2013, are probably as anomalous as 2005 was, given the non el Nino and positive AMO background state.

[DioBrando]

think we're on phase 6 rn

no wonder