Tropical Wave has emerged from West Africa (Is Invest 95L)

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toad strangler
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Re: Tropical Wave has emerged from West Africa

#621 Postby toad strangler » Thu Sep 10, 2020 5:08 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:
toad strangler wrote:
SouthFLTropics wrote:Hour 84, much more vorticity than 12z.


Yes sir, the biggest difference so far. Could mean an even earlier re-curve. We'll see here ...


Not with the ridge that the 500mb charts are showing. It's Westward bound. And as you pointed out, at a good clip too.


Ooof just switched maps to 500mb as current run strength warrants it and :eek:
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Re: Tropical Wave has emerged from West Africa

#622 Postby toad strangler » Thu Sep 10, 2020 5:11 pm

At 132 hours on 1he 18z GFS the ridge appears to be weakening in the direction of PR and a more WNW movement has commenced.
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Re: Tropical Wave has emerged from West Africa

#623 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Sep 10, 2020 5:13 pm

I'm not sure I like where this is headed. Paulette looks to be weakening the ridge enough to bring it North towards PR but I'm guess she will move out in time to allow the ridge to build back in and turn our storm here back to the West. Could bring it North of the GA's as a strong storm.
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Re: Tropical Wave has emerged from West Africa

#624 Postby toad strangler » Thu Sep 10, 2020 5:20 pm

LOOK OUT @cycloneye on the 18z GFS 168hrs
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Re: Tropical Wave has emerged from West Africa

#625 Postby cheezyWXguy » Thu Sep 10, 2020 5:21 pm

Looking like a PR hit this time. Ridge building in to the N. If the weakness behind Paulette closes, this could send it to the east coast of Florida on this run.
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Re: Tropical Wave has emerged from West Africa

#626 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 10, 2020 5:22 pm

Maria 2. :eek:
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Re: Tropical Wave has emerged from West Africa

#627 Postby NDG » Thu Sep 10, 2020 5:22 pm

This looks like a set up similar to yesterday's 18z run, heading for the Bahamas on this run.
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Re: Tropical Wave has emerged from West Africa

#628 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Sep 10, 2020 5:22 pm

Watch out Luis!!! :double:

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Re: Tropical Wave has emerged from West Africa

#629 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Sep 10, 2020 5:23 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:Looking like a PR hit this time. Ridge building in to the N. If the weakness behind Paulette closes, this could send it to the east coast of Florida on this run.


That's what I'm afraid of. Of course this is all speculation at this point, BUT........
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Re: Tropical Wave has emerged from West Africa

#630 Postby aspen » Thu Sep 10, 2020 5:25 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:Watch out Luis!!! :double:

https://i.imgur.com/OeTpYEO.gif

Maria 2: Electric Boogaloo in that run :eek:
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Re: Tropical Wave has emerged from West Africa

#631 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Sep 10, 2020 5:25 pm

Hour 186 and the 591mb high returns and bridges to the GOM. Trap door closed.
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Re: Tropical Wave has emerged from West Africa

#632 Postby toad strangler » Thu Sep 10, 2020 5:25 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:
cheezyWXguy wrote:Looking like a PR hit this time. Ridge building in to the N. If the weakness behind Paulette closes, this could send it to the east coast of Florida on this run.


That's what I'm afraid of. Of course this is all speculation at this point, BUT........


We can only call 'em as we see 'em inside a individual run. BUT, it is just one op run. Drop in the puddle of the stew.
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Re: Tropical Wave has emerged from West Africa

#633 Postby ColdMiser123 » Thu Sep 10, 2020 5:26 pm

Early on in the forecast you could tell that this would still be west enough to pose problems for the islands on the 18z GFS. 18z Euro will still be able to tell us a lot even with it only going out to hour 90.
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Re: Tropical Wave has emerged from West Africa

#634 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Sep 10, 2020 5:27 pm

Headed for the shredder...

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Re: Tropical Wave has emerged from West Africa

#635 Postby toad strangler » Thu Sep 10, 2020 5:27 pm

Hispaniola next
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Re: Tropical Wave has emerged from West Africa

#636 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Sep 10, 2020 5:28 pm

Oh 18z GFS living up to its happy hour name! :lol:
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Re: Tropical Wave has emerged from West Africa

#637 Postby toad strangler » Thu Sep 10, 2020 5:29 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:Headed for the shredder...



Now THIS is the type of cyclone the islands can mess up bad if the interaction is even semi lengthy. But not as bad as the cyclone will mess up the islands.
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Re: Tropical Wave has emerged from West Africa

#638 Postby Keldeo1997 » Thu Sep 10, 2020 5:29 pm

And I see no Trough to force this OTS away from the US
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Re: Tropical Wave has emerged from West Africa

#639 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Sep 10, 2020 5:30 pm

Crash and burn...

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Re: Tropical Wave has emerged from West Africa

#640 Postby sma10 » Thu Sep 10, 2020 5:30 pm

ColdMiser123 wrote:Early on in the forecast you could tell that this would still be west enough to pose problems for the islands on the 18z GFS. 18z Euro will still be able to tell us a lot even with it only going out to hour 90.


Do the ensembles go out to 144?
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