2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[ElectricStorm]

GFS develops the next wave as soon as it leaves Africa, but it's weak and short lived.


GFS also tries to get something going in the subtropics in the long range (after 96L)

[aspen]

EPS has a ton of ensemble members in support of a strong wave with the potential to develop emerging into the Atlantic at around 144-156 hours out. Let’s see if it takes a different track than every other AEW system this year if it forms.

[aspen]

12z GFS and CMC have a strong tropical wave reach the Lesser Antilles on Friday and travel through the Caribbean. Assuming it doesn’t magically take the exact same track as Fred/Grace, it might need to be watched for development.

[toad strangler]

12z GFS LONG range shows a hurricane meandering around the subtropics well off the CONUS SE coast.

[chaser1]

12z GFS LONG range shows a hurricane meandering around the subtropics well off the CONUS SE coast.

F R E D (j/k )

[SFLcane]

12z GFS LONG range shows a hurricane meandering around the subtropics well off the CONUS SE coast.

[captainbarbossa19]

12z GFS LONG range shows a hurricane meandering around the subtropics well off the CONUS SE coast.

https://i.postimg.cc/gjSZfG8J/35-B56-C01-D253-4675-B24-F-35-BCCD1-F0-DA0.png

https://i.postimg.cc/TPzQ4JGS/D238-DE1-D-FEA1-495-A-A3-DA-3814-A736-A7-C7.png

For whatever it's worth, 12z Euro shows another strong wave approaching the Florida Straits around August 24th. Looks like it's developing, but first I want to see it get a handle on short-term forecasting.

[Blown Away]

GFS not to excited about anything up to August 31st...

[gatorcane]

I would keep a close eye on the wave I circled over Africa which has noticeable spin already. The GFS developed this wave on the 12Z in the long-range and the Euro moved it likely too far north coming off Africa, so failed to develop. Models might start to latch onto this one in subsequent runs.

Source which has an “animate” button: https://www.wunderground.com/maps/satel ... ared/afric



18Z GFS depiction of wave just off the coast of Africa:


18Z GFS 850mb forecast showing a broad low with distinct spin:

[SFLcane]

[SFLcane]

Pretty good signal for next cv wave this morning on the European ensembles.

[AutoPenalti]

Pretty good signal for next cv wave this morning on the European ensembles.

https://i.postimg.cc/fLcd5hGb/2-A38-EB60-D0-CB-40-D1-B791-4-E459-AB49-FAA.gif

I'm starting to think a lot of waves this year will suffer from the AEJ flow which sort of acts as a caveat for development and explains why all 3 storms tangled or, in the case of Grace, will tangle with Hispanola.

[SFLcane]

Pretty good signal for next cv wave this morning on the European ensembles.

https://i.postimg.cc/fLcd5hGb/2-A38-EB60-D0-CB-40-D1-B791-4-E459-AB49-FAA.gif

I'm starting to think a lot of waves this year will suffer from the AEJ flow which sort of acts as a caveat for development and explains why all 3 storms tangled or, in the case of Grace, will tangle with Hispanola.

At some point though the ridge will break down a little.

[SoupBone]

Pretty good signal for next cv wave this morning on the European ensembles.

https://i.postimg.cc/fLcd5hGb/2-A38-EB60-D0-CB-40-D1-B791-4-E459-AB49-FAA.gif

I'm starting to think a lot of waves this year will suffer from the AEJ flow which sort of acts as a caveat for development and explains why all 3 storms tangled or, in the case of Grace, will tangle with Hispanola.

At some point though the ridge will break down a little.

Ridge over the US or are you referring to the Bermuda High? As we start moving toward mid-September, we know the target sort of moves a bit.

[gatorcane]

I would keep a close eye on the wave I circled over Africa which has noticeable spin already. The GFS developed this wave on the 12Z in the long-range and the Euro moved it likely too far north coming off Africa, so failed to develop. Models might start to latch onto this one in subsequent runs.

Source which has an “animate” button: https://www.wunderground.com/maps/satel ... ared/afric

https://i.postimg.cc/fR72pw7D/F2-D0-D14-D-7080-4-D4-D-A653-FF2-C6152-CFF2.jpg

18Z GFS depiction of wave just off the coast of Africa:
https://i.postimg.cc/nc9LtLL8/gfs-ir-eatl-18.png

18Z GFS 850mb forecast showing a broad low with distinct spin:
https://i.postimg.cc/4dngb87C/gfs-z850-vort-eatl-18.png

The CMC is on board for the first time:

[SFLcane]

I would keep a close eye on the wave I circled over Africa which has noticeable spin already. The GFS developed this wave on the 12Z in the long-range and the Euro moved it likely too far north coming off Africa, so failed to develop. Models might start to latch onto this one in subsequent runs.

Source which has an “animate” button: https://www.wunderground.com/maps/satel ... ared/afric

https://i.postimg.cc/fR72pw7D/F2-D0-D14-D-7080-4-D4-D-A653-FF2-C6152-CFF2.jpg

18Z GFS depiction of wave just off the coast of Africa:
https://i.postimg.cc/nc9LtLL8/gfs-ir-eatl-18.png

18Z GFS 850mb forecast showing a broad low with distinct spin:
https://i.postimg.cc/4dngb87C/gfs-z850-vort-eatl-18.png

The CMC is on board for the first time:

https://i.postimg.cc/wMg2Db4g/gem-mslp-pcpn-eatl-fh138-240.gif

There we go.

[toad strangler]

gatorcane is a wee bit bullish about a land wave. Uh Oh

[lsuhurricane]

Some decent agreement between the above CMC storm at 240 hours and a few 12z Euro Ensembles.

All appear to be headed due west with stout ridging their north. Would certainly match climatology for that last week of August.

[captainbarbossa19]

I would keep a close eye on the wave I circled over Africa which has noticeable spin already. The GFS developed this wave on the 12Z in the long-range and the Euro moved it likely too far north coming off Africa, so failed to develop. Models might start to latch onto this one in subsequent runs.

Source which has an “animate” button: https://www.wunderground.com/maps/satel ... ared/afric

https://i.postimg.cc/fR72pw7D/F2-D0-D14-D-7080-4-D4-D-A653-FF2-C6152-CFF2.jpg

18Z GFS depiction of wave just off the coast of Africa:
https://i.postimg.cc/nc9LtLL8/gfs-ir-eatl-18.png

18Z GFS 850mb forecast showing a broad low with distinct spin:
https://i.postimg.cc/4dngb87C/gfs-z850-vort-eatl-18.png

The CMC is on board for the first time:

https://i.postimg.cc/wMg2Db4g/gem-mslp-pcpn-eatl-fh138-240.gif

There we go.

Y'all realize that this wave will most likely be the "I" storm right? TD8 is now Henri.

[AutoPenalti]

Some decent agreement between the above CMC storm at 240 hours and a few 12z Euro Ensembles.

All appear to be headed due west with stout ridging their north. Would certainly match climatology for that last week of August.

12z Euro ens hasn't updated yet.