2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[cycloneye]

This is looong range. GFS with a hurricane making landfall in South Carolina on the 16th.

[cycloneye]

Latest GFS (12z) in fantasyland range is modeling a similar setup to the Euro Ensembles.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2023073112/gfs_mslp_pcpn_atl_62.png

https://i.ibb.co/wKFTmc1/Euro-Ensembles-0731.jpg

Second full week in August looks to be active.

To let you know that merged your post to this thread.

[SFLcane]

This wave is one to watch rolls of africa in 2- 3 days.

[zzzh]

Latest GFS (12z) in fantasyland range is modeling a similar setup to the Euro Ensembles.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2023073112/gfs_mslp_pcpn_atl_62.png

https://i.ibb.co/wKFTmc1/Euro-Ensembles-0731.jpg

Second full week in August looks to be active.

But with completely different origin. EPS has it formed from a tropical wave (CMC also shows this), while the GFS has it formed from a non tropical low.

[wxman57]

This is looong range. GFS with a hurricane making landfall in South Carolina on the 16th.

https://i.imgur.com/UGYghGv.gif

It's a done deal, then. The GFS has never predicted a spurious U.S. hurricane hit at hour 384. Better evacuate the Carolinas now.

[Ivanhater]

This is looong range. GFS with a hurricane making landfall in South Carolina on the 16th.

https://i.imgur.com/UGYghGv.gif

It's a done deal, then. The GFS has never predicted a spurious U.S. hurricane hit at hour 384. Better evacuate the Carolinas now.

What do you think about activity in August?

[SFLcane]

This is looong range. GFS with a hurricane making landfall in South Carolina on the 16th.

https://i.imgur.com/UGYghGv.gif

It's a done deal, then. The GFS has never predicted a spurious U.S. hurricane hit at hour 384. Better evacuate the Carolinas now.

What do you think about activity in August?

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/766981155262300160

[rickcorvin]

This is looong range. GFS with a hurricane making landfall in South Carolina on the 16th.

https://i.imgur.com/UGYghGv.gif

It's a done deal, then. The GFS has never predicted a spurious U.S. hurricane hit at hour 384. Better evacuate the Carolinas now.

I don’t think that’s what cycloneye was saying. On this thread in particular I think most cast a skeptical eye toward 16 day+ forecasts. As an amateur (non met), i don’t place much confidence in any particular model after 4 or 5 days, especially pre storm genesis. This thread, to me anyway, is about squinting for signals on the horizon.

[wxman57]

This is looong range. GFS with a hurricane making landfall in South Carolina on the 16th.

https://i.imgur.com/UGYghGv.gif

It's a done deal, then. The GFS has never predicted a spurious U.S. hurricane hit at hour 384. Better evacuate the Carolinas now.

I don’t think that’s what cycloneye was saying. On this thread in particular I think most cast a skeptical eye toward 16 day+ forecasts. As an amateur (non met), i don’t place much confidence in any particular model after 4 or 5 days, especially pre storm genesis. This thread, to me anyway, is about squinting for signals on the horizon.

I know that he wasn't saying that it would happen. Looks like landfall changed to Tampico, MX at 00Z and New Orleans at 06Z.

[SFLcane]

[jlauderdal]

:eek:

https://i.postimg.cc/133BgvcQ/IMG-7364.gif

2nd time this season a GFS product has nailed sofla, sept oct should be good for at least 2 more model canes hitting below the lake.

[Blown Away]

GEFS... Usually the safest place to be is the GFS/GEFS landfall point after 300 hours...

[Jr0d]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/wvGGDLcD/32698870.gif [/url]
GEFS... Usually the safest place to be is the GFS/GEFS landfall point after 300 hours...

That did not work out well for Irma:(

I have noticed the CMC is even more bullish than the GFS on this one.

Until the wave is in the open water, any development is pure speculation of course. Guessing a potential landfall is exactly that.

[cycloneye]

Does anyone has the wave pinpointed inside Africa to see when it will emerge?

[SFLcane]

[BobHarlem]

Canadian chiming in with some activity after really being pro development of anything this season so far.

[Kingarabian]

Global models are really bad right now. Check the Dora thread.

[USTropics]

Does anyone has the wave pinpointed inside Africa to see when it will emerge?

The wave axis the CMC and some GFS ensembles are developing appears to be along 2W currently (highlighted in pink in below analysis):


The 12z CMC has the most organized vorticity (roughly highlighted in pink in the animation below) with the AEW emerging off the coast on Friday:

[Category5Kaiju]

00z CMC at it again with a compact, bona fide TC just north of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands by August 12.

[SFLcane]

EPS waking up this morning...