Low pressure developing over the western Caribbean Sea (Is Invest 97L)

[caneman]

Convection still looks very impressive in the Caribbean. Looks higher than 50% to me.

[Stratton23]

NOAA has a highlighted risk zone of heavy rain and high winds all the way from the florida panhandle to the middle texas coast, that tells me all i need to know lol, could be a very large system

[Frank P]

NOAA has a highlighted risk zone of heavy rain and high winds all the way from the florida panhandle to the middle texas coast, that tells me all i need to know lol, could be a very large system

link please, thanks

[LAF92]

12z Euro ensembles have come to life

[gatorcane]

12Z NAVGEM, think it is a bit too far to the left but yikes, CAT 4:

[Kazmit]

Can’t wait to see what the hurricane models do with it in a few days.

[StPeteMike]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/xCmdW8MT/IMG-1494.gif [/url]
12z Euro ensembles have come to life

So, either trough comes in and pulls it to the NE or ridge builds in and nudges it west until it can move N/NE.

I need Monday to get here so we can grasp what this thing will do better.

[Stratton23]

Frank P

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ntours.png

Hope this link works

[toad strangler]

NOAA has a highlighted risk zone of heavy rain and high winds all the way from the florida panhandle to the middle texas coast, that tells me all i need to know lol, could be a very large system

That noted area extends halfway down the peninsula let alone the panhandle.

[cheezyWXguy]

12Z NAVGEM, think it is a bit too far to the left but yikes, CAT 4:

https://i.postimg.cc/9fZ5278S/navgem-mslp-uv850-watl-fh96-180.gif

That might be the strongest storm I’ve ever seen the NAVGEM model. Good thing it’s terrible. On a similar note, a recent run of the Korean model has a cat5 a bit south of there. No idea if that model is any good but seems too extreme either way.

[Frank P]

Frank P

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ntours.png

Hope this link works

thanks Stratton what I was looking for...

[Frank P]

12Z NAVGEM, think it is a bit too far to the left but yikes, CAT 4:

https://i.postimg.cc/9fZ5278S/navgem-mslp-uv850-watl-fh96-180.gif

That might be the strongest storm I’ve ever seen the NAVGEM model. Good thing it’s terrible. On a similar note, a recent run of the Korean model has a cat5 a bit south of there. No idea if that model is any good but seems too extreme either way.

that is one big ole hurricane right there! surge would be close to Katrina levels if it comes in at the right direction and a slow mover.. you know those Navy guys tend to sip on some good stuff in the early afternoon... hopefully that the cast with this run.. cheers.

[mcheer23]

12Z NAVGEM, think it is a bit too far to the left but yikes, CAT 4:

https://i.postimg.cc/9fZ5278S/navgem-mslp-uv850-watl-fh96-180.gif

That might be the strongest storm I’ve ever seen the NAVGEM model. Good thing it’s terrible. On a similar note, a recent run of the Korean model has a cat5 a bit south of there. No idea if that model is any good but seems too extreme either way.

KMA has back to back Cat 5 runs.

[TallyTracker]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/xCmdW8MT/IMG-1494.gif [/url]
12z Euro ensembles have come to life

The majority have a right hook at the end. There are a handful drifting west at the end of the run too. Generally cyclones this time of year have a right hook but some notable exceptions include 2020’s Delta and Zeta. The steering and conditions were WAY different than 2024 though.

[DunedinDave]

I think it’s interesting to note with a lot of these ensembles we’re looking for landfall spots. But there’s a lot that stall it out in the Gulf as well that kind of gets lost in the shuffle. I do think a stall out is possible. We’ve seen it happen a lot this time of year. Opal got stuck there for a couple of days near the BOC just waiting for something to pick it up.

To me the stall out scenario is the worse case one because it can sit and blow up in the southern Gulf. That’s what the GFS early happy hour run did yesterday…the 12z one.

[SoupBone]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/xCmdW8MT/IMG-1494.gif [/url]
12z Euro ensembles have come to life

The majority have a right hook at the end. There are a handful drifting west at the end of the run too. Generally cyclones this time of year have a right hook but some notable exceptions include 2020’s Delta and Zeta. The steering and conditions were WAY different than 2024 though.

Not impossible, of course, but a late September landfall in Texas would be fairly rare. This season has been so whacky though, that I think all bets are off.

[CourierPR]

The latest satellite loop appears to show something forming in the SW Caribbean. If it comes together faster than forecast, would future track be affected?

[StPeteMike]

The latest satellite loop appears to show something forming in the SW Caribbean. If it comes together faster than forecast, would future track be affected?

It’s the precursor to the eventual system. This should give the future Helene (yes, think this will take the H name) plenty of juice to tap into. I would not be surprised if it forms a little earlier than some of the models have it consolidating.

[Steve]

12Z NAVGEM, think it is a bit too far to the left but yikes, CAT 4:

https://i.postimg.cc/9fZ5278S/navgem-mslp-uv850-watl-fh96-180.gif

That might be the strongest storm I’ve ever seen the NAVGEM model. Good thing it’s terrible. On a similar note, a recent run of the Korean model has a cat5 a bit south of there. No idea if that model is any good but seems too extreme either way.

I don’t know anything about the KMA but when NAVGEM and CMC are teamed up vs the big 3, I got some doubts. Their solutions are not unreasonable. If you run them at 500 it comes down to a cutoff upper low and its influence on the system coming up.

NAVGEM cuts that low off back in Arizona and keeps it in the 4 corner states. 150 hours
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 012&fh=150

Canadian has it in the Great Plains
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 012&fh=150

GFS has it at the MO/IA border

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 012&fh=150

ICON has it in southern Missouri

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 012&fh=150

EC 6z has a different setup with a negatively tilted trough reaching down from the eastern Great Lakes.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 006&fh=156

[Frank P]

12Z NAVGEM, think it is a bit too far to the left but yikes, CAT 4:

https://i.postimg.cc/9fZ5278S/navgem-mslp-uv850-watl-fh96-180.gif

That might be the strongest storm I’ve ever seen the NAVGEM model. Good thing it’s terrible. On a similar note, a recent run of the Korean model has a cat5 a bit south of there. No idea if that model is any good but seems too extreme either way.

KMA has back to back Cat 5 runs.

I have searched the web for the KMA to no avail, do you have a link please? thanks