ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Ntxw]

4C is pretty out there for a trimonthly reading. 3 is probably the upper bound and that is to the extreme historic.

[WALL-E]

A short comparison between 1st and 7th. A new down-welling K wave is originating at date-line.
As it propagates to EPAC, the anomaly is going to stage a new peak.

[cycloneye]

CPC July update has over 90% of having El Nino thru Winter and 80% thru the Spring.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... odisc.html

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
9 July 2015


ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory




Synopsis: There is a greater than 90% chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-16, and around an 80% chance it will last into early spring 2016.

During June, sea surface temperatures (SST) anomalies exceeded +1.0oC across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1). The largest SST anomaly increases occurred in the Niño-3 and Niño-3.4 regions, while the Niño-4 and Niño-1+2 indices remained more constant through the month (Fig. 2). Positive subsurface temperature anomalies weakened (Fig. 3) due to the eastward shift of an upwelling oceanic Kelvin wave, which reduced above-average temperatures at depth in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific (Fig. 4). In many respects, the atmospheric anomalies remained firmly coupled to the oceanic warming. Significant westerly winds were apparent in the western equatorial Pacific and anomalous upper-level easterly winds continued. The traditional and equatorial Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) were both negative, which are consistent with enhanced convection over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific and suppressed convection over Indonesia (Fig. 5). Collectively, these atmospheric and oceanic features reflect an ongoing and strengthening El Niño.

Nearly all models predict El Niño to continue into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-16, with many multi-model averages predicting a strong event at its peak strength (3-month values of the Niño-3.4 index of +1.5oC or greater; Fig. 6). At this time, the forecaster consensus is in favor of a significant El Niño in excess of +1.5oC in the Niño-3.4 region. Overall, there is a greater than 90% chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-16, and around an 80% chance it will last into early spring 2016 (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

Across the contiguous United States, temperature and precipitation impacts associated with El Niño are expected to remain minimal during the Northern Hemisphere summer and increase into the late fall and winter (the 3-month seasonal outlook will be updated on Thursday July 16th). El Niño will likely contribute to a below normal Atlantic hurricane season, and to above-normal hurricane seasons in both the central and eastern Pacific hurricane basins (click Hurricane season outlook for more).

[Ntxw]

Looks like they are on board with a strong Nino with lesser hesistation. With the dynamical models rising and statistical models giving in, wonder if we will see a near 2C model consensus plume soon?

Nearly all models predict El Niño to continue into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-16, with many multi-model averages predicting a strong event at its peak strength (3-month values of the Niño-3.4 index of +1.5oC or greater; Fig. 6). At this time, the forecaster consensus is in favor of a significant El Niño in excess of +1.5oC in the Niño-3.4 region. Overall, there is a greater than 90% chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-16, and around an 80% chance it will last into early spring 2016 (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

A month ago it included this excerpt that they have left out this time as the spring barrier is no more

the consensus of forecasters slightly favors a strong event (3-month values of the Niño-3.4 index +1.5oC or greater), relative to a weaker event. However, this prediction may vary in the months ahead as strength forecasts are the most challenging aspect of ENSO prediction. A moderate, weak, or even no El Niño remains possible, though at increasingly lesser odds.

[curtadams]

I saw quite a few runs go over +4.0C on this, and maybe as high as +5.0C since it is off the charts?
https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/ ... 8185196544

That forecast looks to be for monthly averages, not trimonthlies, so in that way not quite so outlandish. That said, forecasts haven't been very good lately, and forecasts at the edge of or even beyond the conditions used to develop the forecasts are generally garbage. A Nino above 3C would probably activate effects not ever seen before, and those aren't going to be accounted for by the models. I agree there's a very high chance of a strong Nino and a significant chance of a super, based on the fact than ongoing Ninos almost always strengthen in the latter part of the year. But citing the forecast models for probabilities or even semi-precise duration forecasts is IMO ridiculous.

[cycloneye]

CPC blog as always with interesting discussions and this one is a great one that explains what is going on and proposes the naming of El Ninos. Excerpt:

What’s in a name?

Tropical storms and hurricanes have been given names since the early 1950s, which helps to clarify communications. In recent years, the Weather Channel has attracted attention by naming winter storms, perhaps with similar intentions. “So why don’t we name ENSO events?” you ask. Excellent question! I propose we do name them, starting this year. Since I think we should have a theme to the names, and the theme should be action movie stars, I hereby designate the 2015-2016 event as El Niño Bruce Lee.

http://www.climate.gov/news-features/bl ... -bruce-lee

[cycloneye]

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 · 2m2 minutes ago
The current wly wind burst will be remembered as the event that propelled the 2015 #ElNino to strong levels #climate

[Hammy]

Given the continued strengthening of El Nino, does anyone know what the general prospects are for snow east of Atlanta this winter?

[Ntxw]

Given the continued strengthening of El Nino, does anyone know what the general prospects are for snow east of Atlanta this winter?

Odds will be better than the typical year. Other things comes to play though for Georgia such as the NAO/AO and of course the state of the North Pacific. It will be wet and stormy that's likely.

[Ntxw]

Cooling climo starts kicking in soon after mid July. If the SST's don't change or even warm then the anomalies will get stronger all things relative.

[Ntxw]

What an amazing WWB this was and still going 20+ days from west to east.



Another blog update from the CPC

ENSO blog

...In the first half of June, the MJO was traveling through the Indian Ocean and Indonesia, which put an area of suppressed convection over the tropical Pacific. The related strengthening of the easterly trade winds and drier conditions over the Pacific temporarily weakened the atmospheric signal of El Niño conditions. (This is a good example of the short-term variations that Michelle discussed in her post couple of days ago.) But as soon as the MJO moved along, El Niño conditions strengthened again, and the monthly average conditions remained consistent with El Niño.

...During the end of June and first week of July, another very strong westerly wind burst occurred in the western Pacific, on the heels of the MJO event. It is likely that this westerly wind burst will reinforce the movement of warmer waters to the east, maintaining and probably strengthening this El Niño.

[Ntxw]

Latest MEI came out and it was a whopping +2.06 for May/June highest in 17 years. Readings that high are reserved basically for the super El Nino's (1991 had a brief period of that reading). That means in measurement of both ocean and atmospheric coupling, it is resembling that of 1982 and 1997.

[cycloneye]

Another good sign for El Nino to stay healthy is the PDO and the June data is up to +1.54.Is up from the May data of +1.20.

http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest

[Ntxw]

It has been almost two decades since we have seen an El Nino like this. I would be surprised if tomorrow's reading held steady again. I'm guessing around 1.6C. Remember, the SST climo is falling second half of July so we can start getting bigger anomalies without having to actually warm the SSTs it just has to hold steady.



The difference between the big ENSO events is they don't feel too much the effects of seasonal variability as climo changes with late summer into fall. Events such as 2002/2009 wait until after these changes to really blossom.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Historic reading this week

Niño 4: +1.1°C
Niño 3.4: +1.5°C
Niño 3: +2.1C
Niño 1+2: +3.3°C

[euro6208]

wow...

[cycloneye]

Text of CPC weekly update that has Nino 3.4 at +1.5C.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

[Ntxw]

CFSv2 predicted ENSO 1+2 from about 2.7C. It's up to 3.3C now, way under forecasting it, as with most things with this event models have under performed.


Full gradient from west to stronger east canonical El Nino.

[cycloneye]

Ntxw,this is telling.

Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach · 23m23 minutes ago
Latest westerly wind burst has shifted 2C temp anomaly westward 20 degrees longitude in just two weeks! #ElNino

[JDawg512]

Ntxw,this is telling.

Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach · 23m23 minutes ago
Latest westerly wind burst has shifted 2C temp anomaly westward 20 degrees longitude in just two weeks! #ElNino

They need to get that buoy array up and running ASAP. Of all the times it has to go out.