2014 EPAC Season

[Yellow Evan]

This thread kinda died but

A large area of disturbed weather centered about 1600 miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
is associated with a tropical wave. Some slow development of this
system is possible over the next few days while it moves to the
west or west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Looks in a decent environment. But still likely another dud tropical storm in the middle of nowhere.

[Yellow Evan]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 141734
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON JUL 14 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad area of low pressure located about 1600 miles
east-southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii is producing a
few showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development of this
system is possible while it moves toward the west or west-northwest
at 10 to 15 mph, and into the Central Pacific Basin later this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

[Yellow Evan]

Also on CPAC TWO:

1. An area of disturbed weather centered about 1550 miles east-southeast of Hilo is associated with a tropical wave. Slow development of this system is possible over the next couple of days while it moves to the west of west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph. This system will cross 140°W into the central Pacific on Wednesday. *formation chance through 48 hours, low, 20 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

GFS tries to develop this and one behind it. Also shows stuff in the CPAC near the dateline (typical of monster El Ninos).

CMC shows 3 systems within in 10 days.

GFS and Euro aren't very good with forecasting genesis in the WDR. You rarely see phantom storms there.

CFS hints at an active MJO spanning multiple tropical cyclones.

[cycloneye]

An area of low pressure located about 1550 miles east-southeast of
the Big Island of Hawaii has become better defined over the past
several hours. Further development of this system is possible over
the next few days while it moves toward the west or west-northwest
at 10 to 15 mph and into the central Pacific Basin on Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Blake

[Yellow Evan]

An area of low pressure located about 1550 miles east-southeast of
the Big Island of Hawaii has become better defined over the past
several hours. Further development of this system is possible over
the next few days while it moves toward the west or west-northwest
at 10 to 15 mph and into the central Pacific Basin on Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Blake

Will likely be invest's soon. It has a shot at becoming Genevieve/Wali.

[cycloneye]

Invest 90E is up.

[Yellow Evan]

Here is my up to date 2014 PHS forecast. I am currently calling for 18-7-5, but I note large uncertainty in the strength of this likely El Nino.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Yellow Evan]

6z GFS developed something in the long range. 12z did not though.

[hurricanes1234]

No surprise in my opinion.

[Yellow Evan]

No surprise in my opinion.

It was long range though. Conditions are still quite favorable across the EPAC and we have a Kelvin Wave and then MJO coming to provided aid. It is only one run.

[hurricanes1234]

Nice area of convection here but I won't be surprised if it doesn't develop.



Uploaded using TinyPic.

[Yellow Evan]

Nice area of convection here but I won't be surprised if it doesn't develop.

http://i59.tinypic.com/iness0.jpg

Models have sorta been hinting at this. Shear is somewhat strong though.

[Yellow Evan]

[Yellow Evan]

Here's the EPAC problem.



Shear (due to a somewhat unfavorable MJO)



It's obviously here. The reason why we are getting storms in the deep tropical WDR is because it's an El Nino year (which sometimes favors the deep tropics), and w/o MJO and the fact it's the midsummer drouhht, where the EDR is unfavorable. Right now, there is strong trade winds elsewhere.

The good news is that when MJO comes around, it appears we'll start to break this pattern, and all of the EPAC will become favorable.



In about a month, we will probably have to watch the coast of Mexico again (or the area around 110W).

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[hurricanes1234]

I don't know how much to trust this from so early in advance because if I remember correctly, a huge MJO pulse was expected for July and it seems as though we turned out with quite the opposite. But I could be wrong.

[Yellow Evan]

I don't know how much to trust this from so early in advance because if I remember correctly, a huge MJO pulse was expected for July and it seems as though we turned out with quite the opposite. But I could be wrong.

We did get some MJO pulse, but it wasn't ever suppose to be huge. It was a little less than we expected but we still got two systems out of it.

[Yellow Evan]

GFS once again has shown low shear at the end of the run. Not sure if we'll get a major but I'm liking our chances at seeing some activity in late July/early August.

[Yellow Evan]

I haven't checked the 12z GFS yet

but both the 0z and 6z GFS have shown 1-2 system at the end of the period. I think we could see Genevieve sometime next week.

[Yellow Evan]

12z GFS shows the western storm