2015 Global model runs discussion

[tailgater]

Come on east coast trough

[ninel conde]

And Larry Cosgrove says more Atlantic storms over the next few weeks. So much for the MDR is dead nonsense.

As we see with danny, its quite dead as far as making it to the west atlantic.

Welcome back! We had a hurricane while you were away.

Yea, yet another one that died over deep tropical waters.

[WPBWeather]

And Larry Cosgrove says more Atlantic storms over the next few weeks. So much for the MDR is dead nonsense.[/quote]



Welcome back! We had a hurricane while you were away.[/quote]

Yea, yet another one that died over deep tropical waters.[/quote]

Don't go away for too long or you'll miss the next few hurricanes!

[Hammy]

Yea, yet another one that died over deep tropical waters.

I'd say the fact that one formed there in the first place, especially as strong as it was, given the last several years having nothing there at all could still be an indication of the last several years' conditions changing (though El Nino is still in charge this year)

[ninel conde]

Yea, yet another one that died over deep tropical waters.

I'd say the fact that one formed there in the first place, especially as strong as it was, given the last several years having nothing there at all could still be an indication of the last several years' conditions changing (though El Nino is still in charge this year)

I think its the continuation of the same conditions though i think 2016 will have storms make it past 60w. Probably similar to 1996/99

[Steve]

It's not the same conditions, but there are some similarities. Certainly the Eastern Caribbean is a graveyard (which it usually is most of the first half of most seasons anyway), and there are shear and dry air levels and apparently vertical instability issues. But the water temperature profiles aren't the same. Troughs and ridges are moving in from different source regions and at different latitudes.

Here would be my question for you. What were your seasonal prediction numbers if you put that out, and do you think it's time to increase? I was around 7-3/4-0/1. If this mini-burst results in 2 names for the two African Waves (98L and the one behind it), we'd be at "F" with all of September and October to go. Even 3 homegrown systems could get us to the I storm from there. I certainly wouldn't have guessed 9 systems heading into the season.

[WPBWeather]

Yea, yet another one that died over deep tropical waters.

I'd say the fact that one formed there in the first place, especially as strong as it was, given the last several years having nothing there at all could still be an indication of the last several years' conditions changing (though El Nino is still in charge this year)

I think its the continuation of the same conditions though i think 2016 will have storms make it past 60w. Probably similar to 1996/99

If you stay away too long this week, you will miss Erika and Fred soon after.

[hurricanehunter69]

Yea, yet another one that died over deep tropical waters.

I'd say the fact that one formed there in the first place, especially as strong as it was, given the last several years having nothing there at all could still be an indication of the last several years' conditions changing (though El Nino is still in charge this year)

I think its the continuation of the same conditions though i think 2016 will have storms make it past 60w. Probably similar to 1996/99

Yeah it died. They all do at some point. But no mention of how impressive the storm was? It was a major Hurricane. Question is: Do you think any more majors can form this year?

[ninel conde]

i didnt think any would form, so yea, i suppose another could form but i dont get interested until they are intact past 60w

[tolakram]

i didnt think any would form, so yea, i suppose another could form but i dont get interested until they are intact past 60w

In other words the season is dead unless a storm threatens the US?

[ninel conde]

i didnt think any would form, so yea, i suppose another could form but i dont get interested until they are intact past 60w

In other words the season is dead unless a storm threatens the US?

not dead, but less interesting. Im 100% certain TWC will tell you their rating spike up with a US threat from a strong cane.

[Hammy]

i didnt think any would form, so yea, i suppose another could form but i dont get interested until they are intact past 60w

In other words the season is dead unless a storm threatens the US?

not dead, but less interesting. Im 100% certain TWC will tell you their rating spike up with a US threat from a strong cane.

A lot of that is people tuning in to see if they (or people they know) will be affected.

[gatorcane]

Latest Euro has yet another Cape Verde system rolling off Africa in about 10 8-9 days.

[hurricanetrack]

One thing is for sure, not likely to see anymore posts from a certain someone who has pretty much nothing but Debby Downer things to say just for the sake of saying them. So much for a dead, non-active MDR this season....

Think the warmer than thought MDR is probably helping:

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/anomwne.gif

[wxmann_91]

One thing is for sure, not likely to see anymore posts from a certain someone who has pretty much nothing but Debby Downer things to say just for the sake of saying them. So much for a dead, non-active MDR this season....

Think the warmer than thought MDR is probably helping:

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/anomwne.gif

The MDR has been warm for years now though. I recall some studies indicating that Atlantic instability increases during an El Nino. Perhaps that's allowing for these waves to push off the SAL.

[tolakram]

Posted this in the Erica models thread, I had not checked in a while.

[ninel conde]

One thing is for sure, not likely to see anymore posts from a certain someone who has pretty much nothing but Debby Downer things to say just for the sake of saying them. So much for a dead, non-active MDR this season....

Think the warmer than thought MDR is probably helping:

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/anomwne.gif

depends on what you mean by dead. danny died over the MDR and erika is struggling. be interesting to see if the 2 big models agree on anything making it across as a strong cane.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

One thing is for sure, not likely to see anymore posts from a certain someone who has pretty much nothing but Debby Downer things to say just for the sake of saying them. So much for a dead, non-active MDR this season....

Think the warmer than thought MDR is probably helping:

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/anomwne.gif

Not as bad as some who do the exact opposite and continually post and make reference to Katrina and Andrew with every wave or invest. Just saw a post earlier today about a sub 940mb cane threatening south Florida Plus ask Danny how dead it is out there. One of the quickest ive ever seen go from major to nothing. Sure he blew up and over achieved for 24 hrs, there's always a storm system that does so during every meteoroligical season. And Erika is and has been suffering from the same hostile conditions as well.

[ninel conde]

One thing is for sure, not likely to see anymore posts from a certain someone who has pretty much nothing but Debby Downer things to say just for the sake of saying them. So much for a dead, non-active MDR this season....

Think the warmer than thought MDR is probably helping:

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/anomwne.gif

Not as bad as some who do the exact opposite and continually post and make reference to Katrina and Andrew with every wave or invest. Just saw a post earlier today about a sub 940mb cane threatening south Florida Plus ask Danny how dead it is out there. One of the quickest ive ever seen go from major to nothing. Sure he blew up and over achieved for 24 hrs, there's always a storm system that does so during every meteoroligical season. And Erika is and has been suffering from the same hostile conditions as well.

The 2 big models give little or no support to erika. Models show the atlantic ridge is evaporating. may get a recurver east of 40w.

[tolakram]

Ok, you all had your say, let's get back to model runs.

Ninel, if this is about Erika use the Erika model thread and present some evidence of the evaporating ridge please.