2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[StormLogic]

Anyone else see the system being sent into the Louisiana/Texas area at the ICONs 06Z run.

can be seen 120 out now, is this a telegram from our good friend dorian? will it make its way into the gom? im getting a bad feeling about this one.

[StormLogic]

12z 180hr out, if you watch it play out, track almost resembles Rita 05'

[StormLogic]

cmc also onto some GOM anomalies

[StormLogic]

NAVGEM onto GOM anomaly

[StormLogic]

icon 12z

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Never liked icon

Looks like a 1 - 2 punch for texas

A second storm

[USTropics]

00z ECMWF hinting at an active MDR, with a potential long tracking, classic CV system:

[DioBrando]

00z ECMWF hinting at an active MDR, with a potential long tracking, classic CV system:

https://i.imgur.com/AJk5ZEY.png

And that east coast system is dorian?

[USTropics]

00z ECMWF hinting at an active MDR, with a potential long tracking, classic CV system:

https://i.imgur.com/AJk5ZEY.png

And that east coast system is dorian?

Yes, Dorian essentially does a cyclonic loop over FL and ejects off the EC:

[DioBrando]

00z ECMWF hinting at an active MDR, with a potential long tracking, classic CV system:

https://i.imgur.com/AJk5ZEY.png

And that east coast system is dorian?

Yes, Dorian essentially does a cyclonic loop over FL and ejects off the EC:
https://i.ibb.co/nCXsvD2/ecmwf-z500-mslp-us-fh96-240.gif

And what name does this model long tracker have?

[AnnularCane]

And that east coast system is dorian?

Yes, Dorian essentially does a cyclonic loop over FL and ejects off the EC:
https://i.ibb.co/nCXsvD2/ecmwf-z500-mslp-us-fh96-240.gif

And what name does this model long tracker have?

I think that will remain to be seen.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

00z ECMWF hinting at an active MDR, with a potential long tracking, classic CV system:

https://i.imgur.com/AJk5ZEY.png

And that east coast system is dorian?

Yes, Dorian essentially does a cyclonic loop over FL and ejects off the EC:
https://i.ibb.co/nCXsvD2/ecmwf-z500-mslp-us-fh96-240.gif

Thats crap

Tampa Area doesn't need this.

[Hammy]

Euro says no to Cape Verde cyclone train this run as it's back to the higher-latitude waves. Still quite a bit stronger than the last few afternoon runs. CFS has been saying between Sep 4 and 8 for the actual Cape Verde season to wake up so that's about on par either way.

[captainbarbossa19]

Euro says no to Cape Verde cyclone train this run as it's back to the higher-latitude waves. Still quite a bit stronger than the last few afternoon runs. CFS has been saying between Sep 4 and 8 for the actual Cape Verde season to wake up so that's about on par either way.

This was the Euro's forecast for yesterday evening's conditions. The forecast was made last Thursday. There is not even a small sign of Dorian on this map. While model runs can be helpful in the short-range, this is a perfect example of why one model run should never be trusted (especially long-range). I am not sure whether or not we will have an increase in activity soon, but it is clear that conditions can quickly change and models often cannot detect these changes.

[Hammy]

Euro says no to Cape Verde cyclone train this run as it's back to the higher-latitude waves. Still quite a bit stronger than the last few afternoon runs. CFS has been saying between Sep 4 and 8 for the actual Cape Verde season to wake up so that's about on par either way.

https://i.imgur.com/yT7i4QM.png

This was the Euro's forecast for yesterday evening's conditions. The forecast was made last Thursday. There is not even a small sign of Dorian on this map. While model runs can be helpful in the short-range, this is a perfect example of why one model run should never be trusted (especially long-range). I am not sure whether or not we will have an increase in activity soon, but it is clear that conditions can quickly change and models often cannot detect these changes.

I don't disagree, just posting what that particular run was saying. I've been pretty much expecting by the end of the first week of September that we'd start getting into the more active wave train for some time as the longer range signals have been very consistent on this, even if at various strong and weak intensities.

[Kazmit]

The Euro and the GFS are both showing some MDR mischief later next week.

[South Texas Storms]

Canadian and ICON have been showing a possible brief spin up in the western Gulf during the first half of next week. At a minimum it looks like a disturbance will form in the Gulf this weekend and then head westward most likely towards northern Mexico. Hopefully it can at least bring some rain and heat relief to south TX.

[StPeteMike]

Canadian and ICON have been showing a possible brief spin up in the western Gulf during the first half of next week. At a minimum it looks like a disturbance will form in the Gulf this weekend and then head westward most likely towards northern Mexico. Hopefully it can at least bring some rain and heat relief to south TX.

I believe this is the ULL that is just west of Dorian at the moment. The past few hours has seen the low start moving a little faster west. Then seems to enter the Gulf by late Friday, form a LLC, and become a lower end TS before cruising into the NoMe/Brownsville area.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

12z ECMWF showed 1-2 hurricanes in the MDR.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

658
ABNT20 KNHC 300551
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Aug 30 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Dorian, located a few hundred miles east-northeast of the
southeastern Bahamas.

A tropical wave is moving westward from the coast of Africa.
Some development of this system is possible early next week over
the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven