2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Stratton23]

GFS rub is a carbon copy of katrina

[BobHarlem]

within 24 hours of 20th Anniversary of Katrina too.

[Cachondo23]

12z GFS has wave behind Erin developing and moves thru the NE Caribbean islands including Puerto Rico. This is below 10 days.

https://i.imgur.com/UGw2128.gif

Looks like a variety of Irma, Maria, Georges, and Katrina at the end in the gulf tracks. Nice GFs Happy Hour.

[Kazmit]

within 24 hours of 20th Anniversary of Katrina too.
https://i.imgur.com/EzQQIwf.png

Take a look at the size of that wind field too.
Very Katrina-esque.

[Hurrilurker]

That GFS run showing it avoiding the worst obstacles, keeping the core just north of Hispaniola and Cuba and entering a lot of open Gulf water to traverse, is very scary. If I were living anywhere on the Gulf Coast or SFla I'd be keeping a very close eye on that one.

[Steve H.]

Well, considering how far out that is, the only thing that may be relevant is that there is the possibility that it could come pretty far west since ridging should pump up behind the exiting Erin.

[TomballEd]

10 days out and supported by ensembles, well, someone should have the PPV Euro by now. The storm forms by this time next week.

Well worth watching.

[LarryWx]

10 days out and supported by ensembles, well, someone should have the PPV Euro by now. The storm forms by this time next week.

Well worth watching.

Agreed. I’m especially watching ensembles.
Fwiw, the 12Z Euro like the 0Z has no TC following it. It like earlier runs just has a disturbance.

[Cpv17]

Yeah, the ensembles are really the only thing worth paying attention to this far out.

[Hurricaneman]

That GFS run showing it avoiding the worst obstacles, keeping the core just north of Hispaniola and Cuba and entering a lot of open Gulf water to traverse, is very scary. If I were living anywhere on the Gulf Coast or SFla I'd be keeping a very close eye on that one.

Yep, it’s the wave over Mali, the GFS ensembles show anything from New Orleans to a similar track to Erin

[cycloneye]

12z Euro does not have anything developing from wave that GFS had but also anywhere in the basin.

[LarryWx]

That GFS run showing it avoiding the worst obstacles, keeping the core just north of Hispaniola and Cuba and entering a lot of open Gulf water to traverse, is very scary. If I were living anywhere on the Gulf Coast or SFla I'd be keeping a very close eye on that one.

Yep, it’s the wave over Mali, the GFS ensembles show anything from New Orleans to a similar track to Erin

I count 8 of 30 12Z GFS ensemble members landfalling on the Conus from TX to ME within 8/27-9. GEFS suggests the MJO will most likely then be in phase 5, a rather active phase for Conus though not as active as phases 2 and 8. This is keeping me with a moderate concern for now.

[Stratton23]

Yeah this next wave will have my attention because it could get a boost from an active kelvin wave passing through the atlantic , the bermuda high should build back in after Erin departs

[AutoPenalti]

GFS happy hour will be interesting the next couple of days.

[LarryWx]

Regarding the followup to Erin that GEFS remains pretty active with along with the MH the GFS op has, the 12Z Euro ensemble is much quieter for the same time around the Conus.

[Stratton23]

AIFS like the wave that the GFS/ GEFS see showing, should see a lemon later today or tommorow

[Pelicane]

GFS against all the models currently with this next wave. Much better defined again in four days than the other models.

[LAF92]

AIFS like the wave that the GFS/ GEFS see showing, should see a lemon later today or tommorow

18z GFS gearing up for round 2 so far through 117 hours

[Hypercane_Kyle]

GFS against all the models currently with this next wave. Much better defined again in four days than the other models.

The Euro at least shows a sharp wave axis in the area/time the GFS shows this system, so at the very least it doesn't appear to be a ghost storm.

Overall the Atlantic appears favorable to support hurricanes at 55W and west.

[Hurricaneman]

Jacksonville Fl landfall on 18zGFS