TD#9

[Astro_man92]

then when did it actually form the structual eye


the thread is getting loooooooooooong lol

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Where going for the record for the longest thread

[gkrangers]

then when did it actually form the structual eye


the thread is getting loooooooooooong lol

I dunna..would have to go back and look at the recon data. They'll report eye structure...diameter...shape...temperature...etc...

[clfenwi]

I'm starting to buy the idea that the left curve of the convection is the right side of the LLC (meaning that the llc did jump/reorganize to the north). Not high confidence by any means, but it is plausible to me att.

[Swimdude]

Where going for the record for the longest thread

I believe that's the "Yes or No" thread in 'Off Topic.' 128 pages at my last check.

[gkrangers]

I'm starting to buy the idea that the left curve of the convection is the right side of the LLC (meaning that the llc did jump/reorganize to the north). Not high confidence by any means, but it is plausible to me att.

Yep..I'm gonna look at it again in a minute...its funny how the main options right now are the storm is screwed, or strengthening. Both extremes are viable.

[Astro_man92]

Where going for the record for the longest thread

nah these one are running for that

and the nomonations are

Yes or NO
"clapping"
Pacific NorthWest Weather
"clapping"
News from the Lone Stat State
"clapping"
The Person Above You
"clapping"
and the Final one that i'm looking for is
This or That
"clapping"

come here and vote http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 472#988472

[djones65]

TD 9 is not dying, at least not yet...
If you look at the IR loop at this site...
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastnheir.html
You can see the circulation center is at the very western edge of the deep convection still exposed or partially exposed near 19.1N and 44.0W
I believe that Avila of the NHC "got ahead" of the circulation center in projecting the 03Z position and the system has slowed down.
But if you look at the low level clouds in the loop you can definitely still see a circulation at the very edge of the convection. The convection has become less well organized and I agree that this system has not yet reached tropical storm status, although earlier today I personally thought the system was deserving of being upgraded based on the low cloud center definition. It reminded me a lot of Sebastian in 1995 and Hortense in 1996 when it temporarily weakened (got sheared) prior to reorganizing and striking Puerto Rico.
At this time whatever comes of this system I don't believe the ridge will strengthen significantly to preclude recurvature. Just my two cents.

[gkrangers]

I want to say that the center might be reforming north of the original one...still not under the convection.

I'm sure I'm going to wake up to a surprise....

[djones65]

Personally I believe the low level circulation is simply too large and well defined to suddenly reform, so if it is farther north it is likely due to a change in motion.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

How on earth can this be a weak tropical depression. In still have a well defined LLC with also be able to fire off minus 80 convection. This is just my guest but if this had a recon into it they would likely find this to be a 50 mph tropical storm right now. Please this is just a guest by looking at other storms.

[clfenwi]

GFDL didn't kill off the system in its most recent run...recurves it at 57.4 West in 120 h...

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/05080705

[clfenwi]

Comments from the 205 AM TWD:

CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH TSTMS CLOSER TO THE CENTER THAN HAS BEEN SEEN IN AT LEAST 36 HOURS. SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...A
LARGE UPPER LOW IS POSITIONED N OF THE CYCLONE WITH WLY SHEAR
AND DRY AIR ALOFT INHIBITING MUCH DEVELOPMENT. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS IN THE ERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE DEPRESSION
FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 41W-44W. LATEST NIGHT VISIBLE IMAGES
SUGGEST THE CENTER MAY BE REFORMING TO THE N NEAR THE DEEP
CONVECTION.

[gkrangers]

GFDL didn't kill off the system in its most recent run...recurves it at 57.4 West in 120 h...

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/05080705

Thats a rather big change...its been dissipating it early since its inception.

Matt...what well defined LLC do you speak of? Cuz I surely can't see it anymore.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The one that is reforming under the western side of the convection. Arlene did not look this good. At least it seems like it...

[djones65]

Gkrangers, Please go to this site and click on the "right" box.
It is a nighttime visible loop of TD#9 and I believe you will see what Matt is able to see... a very well defined low level circulation at the western edge of the deep convection and is moving northwest.
http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html

[clfenwi]

I'm fairly convinced at this point that the center relocated to the north and is IVO 19.5 N 44 W or thereabouts.

[clfenwi]

SSD's position/intensity estimate

07/0545 UTC 19.2N 44.3W T1.0/1.0 09 -- Atlantic Ocean

[gkrangers]

Gkrangers, Please go to this site and click on the "right" box.
It is a nighttime visible loop of TD#9 and I believe you will see what Matt is able to see... a very well defined low level circulation at the western edge of the deep convection and is moving northwest.
http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html

I just looked at the shortwave IR...I agree with clfenwi regarding the position.

Right on the western edge of the convection, north of where the old center was.

Its gotten a little better organized over the last hour.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Darn it the LLC is being torn away to the west of the convection again. Looks like this doe's not went to become Irene. Even so I would go to Vegas in bet good money that this is strong enough to be so.