TS Irene=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[clfenwi]

You can't discount anything with this storm.

Actually, yeah, I think I will discount the possibility of it becoming a category five...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Andrew was falling apart at this stage in its game. Don't discount anything.

[Astro_man92]

Andrew was falling apart at this stage in its game. Don't discount anything.

wow you are almost at 3000 posts as of now 2009 to go to cat 3

[clfenwi]

Andrew was falling apart at this stage in its game. Don't discount anything.

Andrew was also further progressed at this state in the game... even when he regressed he was still a 40 knot storm...

[clfenwi]

06Z guidance... LBAR returns, so SHIPS is back as well...

430
WHXX01 KWBC 090636
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE (AL092005) ON 20050809 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050809 0600 050809 1800 050810 0600 050810 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 22.4N 53.1W 22.3N 54.6W 22.3N 56.2W 22.7N 58.2W
BAMM 22.4N 53.1W 22.2N 54.8W 22.1N 56.8W 22.4N 58.9W
A98E 22.4N 53.1W 22.3N 55.2W 22.3N 57.3W 22.6N 59.6W
LBAR 22.4N 53.1W 22.3N 54.9W 22.6N 57.0W 23.4N 59.3W
SHIP 30KTS 32KTS 36KTS 41KTS
DSHP 30KTS 32KTS 36KTS 41KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050811 0600 050812 0600 050813 0600 050814 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 23.2N 60.2W 24.7N 64.5W 26.2N 67.7W 27.1N 70.4W
BAMM 22.7N 61.1W 23.8N 65.3W 24.7N 69.0W 25.4N 72.0W
A98E 23.2N 62.0W 24.2N 66.4W 25.6N 70.5W 27.3N 74.1W
LBAR 24.2N 61.6W 26.3N 65.8W 28.2N 68.2W 29.6N 69.1W
SHIP 46KTS 55KTS 60KTS 63KTS
DSHP 46KTS 55KTS 60KTS 63KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 22.4N LONCUR = 53.1W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 22.4N LONM12 = 50.9W DIRM12 = 279DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 21.8N LONM24 = 48.3W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 105NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[gkrangers]

THIS IS A MAJOR SHIFT WEST.

[clfenwi]

THIS IS A MAJOR SHIFT WEST.

Yep, pretty much an across the board shift to the south and west.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_09.gif is updated.

Comparing the 18Z and 06Z SHIPS output... not much change once you account for the 12 hr splits... maybe slightly more optimistic in the mid-term, but otherwise the same.

[superfly]

As far as I'm concerned, this is a wait and see for me. Models right now are pretty much out the door since they have been so inconsistent from run to run.

[gkrangers]

THIS IS A MAJOR SHIFT WEST.

Yep, pretty much an across the board shift to the south and west.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_09.gif is updated.

Comparing the 18Z and 06Z SHIPS output... not much change once you account for the 12 hr splits... maybe slightly more optimistic in the mid-term, but otherwise the same.

Well...I'm going to bed. First Shuttle landing attempt at KSC has been scrubbed...second chance is at 6:42 Eastern. I'll be up around 6ish..5AM discussion could be interesting giving the Euro and tropical suite all missing the weakness and sending Irene, presumably, around the periphery of the ridge. Lets go New Jersey landfall!.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The LLC is now totally covered by deep convections. It is likely a tropical storm again but we will see if that convection can hold.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR2/20.jpg

[hicksta]

Hm, decent shift to the west with the models

[elysium]

The LLC is now under the CDO!! Bursting magenta over the core. Irene may be rapidly intensifying. W.S.W. motion now due west. Ridge continues building in robustly. All models have uniformally made a major convincing shift to the left. Ridge building, trough weakening. In about 48 hrs. we should see Irene motion W.N.W. followed by hard westward drive under the ridge. Another huge burst over the LLC of wrapping CDO magenta evidences rapid intensification has begun.

[hicksta]

Rutrow, poor flordia

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Not likely to go to Florida more likely the outter banks. But that could change. I think this will fellow a westward track for a while. I don't see any recurving for this storm. It should also turn more to the west-northwest near the end. That is my guest by the shifting of the models...

[clfenwi]

Looking at the cloud pattern in the sw ir and night-time visible imagery, I am not convinced that the center is under the convection. While the convection has gotten closer to the center in the past three hours or so, I think it is still on the eastern side of center, not over (if that interpretation is correct then Irene has broken her ssw-w motion for the moment).

Intensity will probably be held at 30 kts for this advisory.

[clfenwi]

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... 080906.png

Throwing up a link for an image that shows the forecast track of the shallow BAM model since it was mentioned in the 5 AM discussion.

[superfly]

The LLC is now under the CDO!! Bursting magenta over the core. Irene may be rapidly intensifying. W.S.W. motion now due west. Ridge continues building in robustly. All models have uniformally made a major convincing shift to the left. Ridge building, trough weakening. In about 48 hrs. we should see Irene motion W.N.W. followed by hard westward drive under the ridge. Another huge burst over the LLC of wrapping CDO magenta evidences rapid intensification has begun.

Irene's convection can hardly be considered a CDO at this point. Its western half is still barren and until it wraps, there will be no intensification.

[elysium]

After the trough fails to lift out Irene, she will be positioned east of the south central Bahamas under an entrenched building high pressure ridge, forecast to be there for a very long time; perhaps weeks. Starting today, you will begin to hear more and more references about the similarities between Hurricane Andrew and Hurricane Irene, with the possible exception of Andrew not being as well organized as Irene is now at this stage of his development. Additionally, the odds of Irene getting above 27N between here and Florida are almost non-existant.

Irene is not like any other system that has developed in the Atlantic since Hurricane Andrew. No hurricane since Andrew had a building ridge over head as strong as the ridge that is forecast to be in place as Irene approaches the Bahamas, nor more entrenched. The lesson of Hurricane Andrew was that high pressure and not the hurricane itself is what creates powerful storms of historical proportion. Of course, there are many other factors involved, however, without a strong high pressure ridge, you haven't got a powerhouse.

Irene will have it all on her approach into the southern Bahamas. And so did Andrwe. Irene may still fizzle out, but as the NHC says, that option is becoming more remote by the hour.

[clfenwi]

Next Quikscat overpass of Irene is scheduled for 0943 Z ... with any look it will actually pass over the center this time...note that it will take a bit for the new image to actually hit the servers so don't go looking for it at say 0945/1000Z...

[Tertius]

After the trough fails to lift out Irene, she will be positioned east of the south central Bahamas under an entrenched building high pressure ridge, forecast to be there for a very long time; perhaps weeks. Starting today, you will begin to hear more and more references about the similarities between Hurricane Andrew and Hurricane Irene, with the possible exception of Andrew not being as well organized as Irene is now at this stage of his development. Additionally, the odds of Irene getting above 27N between here and Florida are almost non-existant.

Irene is not like any other system that has developed in the Atlantic since Hurricane Andrew. No hurricane since Andrew had a building ridge over head as strong as the ridge that is forecast to be in place as Irene approaches the Bahamas, nor more entrenched. The lesson of Hurricane Andrew was that high pressure and not the hurricane itself is what creates powerful storms of historical proportion. Of course, there are many other factors involved, however, without a strong high pressure ridge, you haven't got a powerhouse.

Irene will have it all on her approach into the southern Bahamas. And so did Andrwe. Irene may still fizzle out, but as the NHC says, that option is becoming more remote by the hour.

Elysium, with all due respect, I keep seeing your posts pop up but I rarely have any idea what you are talking about after reading them. You are quite dramatic but I cannot see any reasoning behind the doom and gloom. "High pressure creates storms of historical proportion". What on earth does that mean? High pressure ridging can drive a storm westward into the SE US but other than that I don't get your point. Plenty of major hurricanes have formed and landed WITHOUT any high pressure ridging steering them, in such cases they simply track in a different direction. Camille for example. No high pressure ridge steering her so she headed for the North Pole. Not much help for Mississippi was it?

Your basic point is clear. The ridge is building back in and you believe it will force the storm westward towards the US coast. Fine. If so the waters are warm and conditions are right for strengthening before it lands but other than that you make little sense. Please explain your reasoning so I can understand.