![Image](http://i59.tinypic.com/2upq06u.gif)
In terms of the sub-surface it has the fuel just as 1997 did.
![Image](http://i60.tinypic.com/2udx46o.gif)
![Image](http://i60.tinypic.com/29crnm9.gif)
Even with an epic collapse from here on out, would still be enough for strong event though a bigger event is probable.
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TeamPlayersBlue wrote:Ntxw wrote:Another WWB just happened that well didn't seem too strong in the models but ended up more potent. Its becoming so common not even a big deal it seems.
Should continue with the Typhoons. Will these large typhoons continue into Nov? Possible buckle of Jet stream?
Ntxw wrote::uarrow: Here is a Himawari image of the potential super twins. Wonder if they will kick start another WWB? Looks like they might.
Hammy wrote:With the similarities to 1997 and there still being months left for this to peak, could we end up with a near record (if not record-breaking) Nino before all is said and done?
Ntxw wrote:AJC3 wrote:Thanks. So it looks like the two prior monthly SSTA data that I took from here:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... .ascii.txt
...for May and June are fine.
It's just the number I ball parked for July (+1.58C) was too high, since the weeklies are taken from the older dataset. In order to bring the MJJ tercile down from what I arrived at (+1.14C) to the official value +1.02C seen at:
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/oni.data
...then the actual monthly 3.4 SSTA for July would have had to be somewhere around +1.22C instead of +1.58C. +0.36C is a pretty big difference between datasets.
[+1.02C*3 - (+0.97C + 0.87C)] = +1.22C
The different datasets have had some profound restructuring of some ENSO events notably the El Nino's. 2009 during it's time would've been tracked as a strong Nino then changed borderline and now solidly moderate similar to 2002. Eliminates 1957-58, 1968-69, and 2014-15 as unbroken multi-year events.
spiral wrote:Just a question could the cold water up-welling from the recent and the now 'modeled' twin typhoons in the WPac effectively lead to colder surface pools moving east and much weaker kelvin waves and westerly winds and a brake down in this elino down the track.
spiral wrote:Just a question could the cold water up-welling from the recent and the now 'modeled' twin typhoons in the WPac effectively lead to colder surface pools moving east and much weaker kelvin waves and westerly winds and a brake down in this elino down the track.
Dean_175 wrote:Kingarabian wrote:Ntxw, if the El Nino strengthens to unprecedented levels, what are the chances it continues until next summer?
Its still possible that a strong El Nino would persist to the start of meteorological summer June 1- but not much longer after that. The 1982 El Nino was still around June of the next year. 1997 on the other hand, decayed rapidly before June.
El Nino events tend to decay late winter and revert to neutral or La Nina by summer. El Nino events grow by positive feedback processes where the wind stress over the ocean adjust to SST anomalies, but negative feedback processes are also occurring. The wind stress curl produces Sverdrup transport of water away from the equator (lowering SSH and the mean thermocline depth) and generates ocean Rossby waves. Rossby waves travel to the west Pacific boundary and reflect as an upwelling KW response several months later.
During winter, the maximum "total SSTs" in the central Pacific move south of the equator as part of the natural seasonal cycle. The anomalous deep convection during El Nino follows this shift of SSTs, causing the westerly wind stress anomalies to also move south of the equator. This cuts off the equatorial wind stress anomalies - and the anomalous tilt of the thermocline starts to diminish. With the positive feedbacks diminished, the negative feedbacks can dominate and terminate the El Nino.
Strong El Nino events actually have an extra push towards La Nina: during strong events - warm total SSTs actually penetrate into the east Pacific- allowing deep convection and westerly wind anomalies to occur there. In May, when total SSTs seasonally start to diminish there, the water becomes too cool to support deep convection and strong easterlies abruptly return. Strong Ninos are almost invariably followed by La Nina- which typically has started to develop during summer.
Hammy wrote:With the similarities to 1997 and there still being months left for this to peak, could we end up with a near record (if not record-breaking) Nino before all is said and done?
AJC3 wrote:Just a quick followup...I found the monthlies based off of the older OISST.v2 data, and it was +1.60C for JUL, pretty close (+0.2C) to that rough estimate. The actual JUL monthly from v4 was +1.21C, which was almost (-0.1C) spot on as well. I sure as heck hope that after this event winds down, from here on out CPC will switch to "v4-based" weeklies so that we down have both apples and orange being thrown at us. If it's confusing for us mets in the field, just think how bad it must be for the rest of you.
cycloneye wrote:The August CPC update continues with the 90% of El Nino thru winter and around 85% thru the 2016 spring.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... odisc.html
WeatherEmperor wrote:cycloneye wrote:The August CPC update continues with the 90% of El Nino thru winter and around 85% thru the 2016 spring.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... odisc.html
Would it be possible this El Nino will extend into the 2016 atlantic hurricane season? How crazy would that be
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