ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Dean_175]

I wonder if we will get a positive IOD. They often start to develop this time of year. Doesn't happen every El Nino , but it often happens when you start getting cooling way out in the far west Pacific--which produces easterly wind anomalies over the equatorial Indian Ocean. 1997 and 2006 were both positive IOD. Though 2006 was a weak El Nino, it had some cool waters in the far west and near Australia this time of year. 2009 didn't see a positive IOD, despite being a moderate El Nino-- possibly since it stayed warm out west.

We are seeing a fairly mature El Nino with a cool far west Pacific- and net easterly wind anomalies over the Indian Ocean in July.

At 850mb:

[Ntxw]

Daily anoms at 3.4

[Dean_175]

Daily anoms at 3.4

Warmest week yet this year in the dailies. Could we see 2.1 or 2.2C on Monday?

[Ntxw]

Warmest week yet this year in the dailies. Could we see 2.1 or 2.2C on Monday?

I think it should. Greatest sea level rises have been in Nino 3.4. We'll be near 2.4C-2.6C pretty soon later next month. This is the first Super Nino of the real digital age and of this board. It's going to be compared to future events for sure. I'm equally as interested to see if we transition to La Nina next year, if so that will be unique to track as well.




This event has also cleared up some things for me, such as global moisture and tropical activity increasing, even with the Atlantic (for now, next year it may follow) not fully on board but the net globe is dramatic. Record pace in fact.

[Ntxw]

Update tomorrow, I'm calling for 2.1C. Latest daily from tropicaltidbits is 2.244C. Just amazing run for this powerful El Nino.

1997 around the same week saw 2.1C and then 2.0C for the final week of August. It held very close to that (2.2C) for the remainding of September and then continued more impressive warming in October.

[Dean_175]

This weekly will be :

Nino3.4 up to 2.1
Nino1+2 down to 1.7
Nino3 at 2.2
Nino 4 at 1.1

[cycloneye]

Text of CPC weekly update up to +2.1C at Nino 3.4.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[Ntxw]

Of note the 2.1C ties 1997 as the monthly August record for nino 3.4

[Iknownothing]

So it seems we are more or less on par with 97' in the 3.4 region. But what effect will the much lower Temps in the 1-2 region mean for the development of this El Nino?

[JDawg512]

So it seems we are more or less on par with 97' in the 3.4 region. But what effect will the much lower Temps in the 1-2 region mean for the development of this El Nino?

From what I understand, (and someone correct me if I'm wrong), the cooling is temporary. There are bits of cooler water in between the warmer segments rather than one solid kelvin wave. So you could say it's a little upwelling phase if you can even call it that. The water is not extremely cool, still above average but it's cooler than the warmer segments. We should see new warming anytime as it looks like the next batch has reached off the coast of South America.

It will probably just elongate the warming in 3.4. As the slightly cooler water makes its way west it may cool 3.4 a little but then warm again later in the autumn.

Let me know Ntxw or someone else if that sounds about right.

[Ntxw]

From what I understand, (and someone correct me if I'm wrong), the cooling is temporary. There are bits of cooler water in between the warmer segments rather than one solid kelvin wave. So you could say it's a little upwelling phase if you can even call it that. The water is not extremely cool, still above average but it's cooler than the warmer segments. We should see new warming anytime as it looks like the next batch has reached off the coast of South America.

It will probably just elongate the warming in 3.4. As the slightly cooler water makes its way west it may cool 3.4 a little but then warm again later in the autumn.

Let me know Ntxw or someone else if that sounds about right.

Sounds like a good explanation to me! That's one area I'm not too good with on research is the warming of ENSO 1+2. It can happen so fast and dramatic mostly because the cold tongue nature (cool water is pushing up naturally while warm water is being pushed east, the further east the warmer 1+2). To make things more complicated it is relative to what the climatology for the time year as the seasons change to determine the anomalies.

This is why it can be so difficult to label modoki, or canonical unless there is a definitive cold east (la nina levels) and warm central for a prolonged time. Otherwise anomalies fluctuates back and forth with the cold tongue nature and climo. This area is warmer now with this climo etc then is cooler than that area with the same SST's a month later etc yuck.

[LarryWx]

We've had 50 straight days of a -SOI. That's the longest -SOI streak by a good margin since the 1997-8 super-Nino.

[Ntxw]

Streak continues on Larry.

Update Monday, any guesses? I'm going for 2.2C

Above, below doesn't matter how you look at it. It is a full blown super El Nino. Warm waters of the WPAC have migrated way east beyond the dateline.

[Dean_175]

Update Monday, any guesses?

I would guess 2.1C- -stay constant from last week.

[tstorm98]

2.1 or 2.2

[Kingarabian]

What's the chances that next year we'll be in a neutral rather than a La Nina?

[Dean_175]

What's the chances that next year we'll be in a neutral rather than a La Nina?

I am favoring a La Nina - but neutral is still a good possibility. Its certainly not unheard of to get neutral after a strong El Nino. In fact, the 1982 super El Nino was followed by cool neutral in late 1983--with La Nina waiting till 1984 develop ; though this cool neutral was short of La Nina by only one month's ONI.

Since 1950- only around half of strong El Ninos (3 consecutive ONIs at/above 1.5C) were followed by La Nina. Similar result for Ninos of at least moderate intensity. In fact the strong 1957 El Nino was followed by a weaker El Nino. But even if we assume that no El Nino will occur next year (as that would almost be 3 consecutive Ninos if you count 2014 as an unofficial one) - the odds of a La Nina predicted from this still wouldn't be much higher than 60 percent or so.

There are dynamical reasons that El Ninos - particularly moderate or strong ones- are often followed by La Nina--but history shows that its hardly a slam dunk by any means that we get La Nina.

I'd put it the chances of neutral in the 25-45 percent range.

[LarryWx]

I believe that chance of 2016-7 being a Niño is very low since that would make it essentially a triple and there has been only one triple since the late 1800's: 1939-40, 40-1, 41-2.

[Dean_175]

:uarrow: I believe that chance of 2016-7 being a Niño is very low since that would make it essentially a triple and there has been only one triple since the late 1800's: 1939-40, 40-1, 41-2.

Yeah - I think that's a pretty safe assumption.

[Hurricaneman]

:uarrow: I believe that chance of 2016-7 being a Niño is very low since that would make it essentially a triple and there has been only one triple since the late 1800's: 1939-40, 40-1, 41-2.

Yeah - I think that's a pretty safe assumption.

There is evidence so far that this El Nino might be peaking now and by november it will start on a downward trend with the + subsurface kelvin wave starting to decrease this could be the peak of this el nino with it being steady until november with a decline to La Nina by Summer 2016 at least IMO

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