ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[HURRICANELONNY]

Mike Ventrice on twitter posted this



And today it's been raining in NorCal. Can anyone say El Nino?

Amen!

[dexterlabio]

Mike Ventrice on twitter posted this



And today it's been raining in NorCal. Can anyone say El Nino?

I hope this is the beginning of the end of the horrid drought. Hopefully the northern part of CA will get more rain too.

[cycloneye]

The Mid-September plume of models have a peak of +2.4C at November,December and January.

http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/c ... o/current/

[Hurricaneman]

The Mid-September plume of models have a peak of +2.4C at November,December and January.

http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/c ... o/current/

The plume models seem to pretty much say this El Nino has pretty much peaked and is going to maintain until January and substansially drop after that

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[NDG]

While not direct, Los Angeles just had nearly 2 inches of rain today (Linda moisture) and with Dolores remnants earlier this summer it has been abnormally wet during the dry time of year for SoCal. Not many have been talking about.

Sept averages 0.27 inches of rain in Downtown LA. This however does not help much in terms of the water supply. What will be needed here is the mountain snows this winter.

Yep; Linda's heavy rains (extremely heavy by Southern California standards) caught everyone off guard since we were only expecting scattered showers. Havoc on the morning commute and people calling in sick and skipping classes due to fact that everyone "knows" how bad the traffic and roads are when we get the first rain of the fall.

More tropical moisture expected next week (remnants of the yet-to-form Marty?).

SST has also reached 26 C off of San Diego which is technically warm enough to sustain a hurricane should we get another strong EPAC storm that moves up off the coast of Baja.

Not really, Just because a surf beach might have reached 26 C it might have been very localized, offshore waters in southern Calif and northern Baja are in the the low to mid 70s, 26 deg C isotherm is way down closer to lower Baja Calif.

[WPBWeather]

The Mid-September plume of models have a peak of +2.4C at November,December and January.

http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/c ... o/current/

The plume models seem to pretty much say this El Nino has pretty much peaked and is going to maintain until January and substansially drop after that

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Yes, while this might be a strong El Nino, it is not super or Godzilla. Way too much hype by media and even Pro Mets that should know better.

[Ntxw]

The Mid-September plume of models have a peak of +2.4C at November,December and January.

http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/c ... o/current/

That seems pretty reasonable thus the weekly readings should peak around late October or November. Trimonthly the peak should favor OND or NDJ. Most guidance agrees with the line of thinking thus the El Nino will peak anywhere from third to first highest (second may be the best middle ground) at Nino 3.4. We'll have to see what ONI (ERSSTv4) does since it is hard to predict that dataset but all others will be 1 or 2. Peak will be sometime late fall or early winter and weakening should occur late winter into next spring. If it does achieve a trimonthly of 2.4C then it would be the strongest El Nino on record.

Remember a trimonthly is an average of three months. So NDJ does not mean peak in November, it means all three months averaged, it could be any of the three months or even all three. It has it ending around MJJ thus the average of the 3 months thus the likely end of the event will be sometime early to mid summer of next year per the IRI in May-June-July period.

[dexterlabio]

Interesting that some people are not convinced that this is a strong episode when it is currently up there with 1997, 1982 and 1972.

[Ntxw]

Interesting that some people are not convinced that this is a strong episode when it is currently up there with 1997, 1982 and 1972.

1997 was stronger to the east, but weaker to the west. 1982 up to this point started cranking up so 2015 is stronger earlier. 1972 is no contest as it's peak was barely 2C already left behind.

[NDG]

The Mid-September plume of models have a peak of +2.4C at November,December and January.

http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/c ... o/current/

The plume models seem to pretty much say this El Nino has pretty much peaked and is going to maintain until January and substansially drop after that

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Yes, while this might be a strong El Nino, it is not super or Godzilla. Way too much hype by media and even Pro Mets that should know better.

The way I look at it is that the media finally started mentioning this El Niño episode, they might be over doing it for ratings, but compared to Just a few months ago when they were blaming climate change instead of El Niño on the flooding across the south central US and the drought in India.

[NDG]

Interesting that some people are not convinced that this is a strong episode when it is currently up there with 1997, 1982 and 1972.

Just the fact that there has not been tropical development west of 65 deg Long since the middle of July, speaks volume. And the two storms that tried to track west of 65W got decapitated. I have no idea either why people are not convinced yet, lol.
Glad the JB gave up during the past couple of days on comparing this El Nino to 2002.

[Yellow Evan]

Why do people think this El Nino has peaked?

[WPBWeather]

Why do people think this El Nino has peaked?

Well there is a lot of model support for it having peaked.

[WPBWeather]

Interesting that some people are not convinced that this is a strong episode when it is currently up there with 1997, 1982 and 1972.

Just the fact that there has not been tropical development west of 65 deg Long since the middle of July, speaks volume. And the two storms that tried to track west of 65W got decapitated. I have no idea either why people are not convinced yet, lol.
Glad the JB gave up during the past couple of days on comparing this El Nino to 2002.

And yes, the El Nino has peaked.

[Hurricaneman]

might go up .1 to .3 but thats it IMO

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Yellow Evan]

Why do people think this El Nino has peaked?

Well there is a lot of model support for it having peaked.

Models don't have a great short-term handle on ENSO.

Untill we see a solid decline in SST values, I don't think it's a good idea to know for say this has peaked for sure.

[tolakram]

Interesting that some people are not convinced that this is a strong episode when it is currently up there with 1997, 1982 and 1972.

Just the fact that there has not been tropical development west of 65 deg Long since the middle of July, speaks volume. And the two storms that tried to track west of 65W got decapitated. I have no idea either why people are not convinced yet, lol.
Glad the JB gave up during the past couple of days on comparing this El Nino to 2002.

And yes, the El Nino has peaked.

Since this is a weather based discussion forum can you provide your evidence that el nino has peaked, or at least what you are thinking and why? Maybe we can learn something. Looks to me like the peak will be sometime in November if the models are correct, with a steady cooling next year.

[NDG]

It may not be a bad idea fairly soon to start a thread for California fairly soon as things will start getting fairly active for them during the next couple of months thanks to El Nino.

More much needed rains for southern CA and SW US forecasted for early next week.

[WPBWeather]

And yes, the El Nino has peaked.[/quote]

Since this is a weather based discussion forum can you provide your evidence that el nino has peaked, or at least what you are thinking and why? Maybe we can learn something. Looks to me like the peak will be sometime in November if the models are correct, with a steady cooling next year.[/quote]

Hi mark. There are too many model sites to post here. A simple Google search should help.

[tolakram]

Hi mark. There are too many model sites to post here. A simple Google search should help.

Hmmm, that's an interesting response.

I googled "has the 2015 el nino peaked" and the first hit is this:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html

I believe the key paragraph is this:

All models surveyed predict El Niño to continue into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2016, and all multi-model averages predict a peak in late fall/early winter (3-month values of the Niño-3.4 index of +1.5oC or greater; Fig. 6). The forecaster consensus unanimously favors a strong El Niño, with peak 3-month SST departures in the Niño 3.4 region near or exceeding +2.0oC. Overall, there is an approximately 95% chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-16, gradually weakening through spring 2016 (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

Late fall early winter would be end of November to early December as far as I know, and these guys are the pros, so I think it's safe to stick with that forecast.