ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[WPBWeather]

Hi mark. There are too many model sites to post here. A simple Google search should help.

Hmmm, that's an interesting response.

I googled "has the 2015 el nino peaked" and the first hit is this:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html

I believe the key paragraph is this:

All models surveyed predict El Niño to continue into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2016, and all multi-model averages predict a peak in late fall/early winter (3-month values of the Niño-3.4 index of +1.5oC or greater; Fig. 6). The forecaster consensus unanimously favors a strong El Niño, with peak 3-month SST departures in the Niño 3.4 region near or exceeding +2.0oC. Overall, there is an approximately 95% chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-16, gradually weakening through spring 2016 (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).


Late fall early winter would be end of November to early December as far as I know, and these guys are the pros, so I think it's safe to stick with that forecast.

That is an interesting response. I can't post the Weatherbell paywall models here. But I agree with you, we best leave this to the ProMets and not argue among ourselves.

[NDG]

Hi mark. There are too many model sites to post here. A simple Google search should help.

Hmmm, that's an interesting response.

I googled "has the 2015 el nino peaked" and the first hit is this:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html

I believe the key paragraph is this:

All models surveyed predict El Niño to continue into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2016, and all multi-model averages predict a peak in late fall/early winter (3-month values of the Niño-3.4 index of +1.5oC or greater; Fig. 6). The forecaster consensus unanimously favors a strong El Niño, with peak 3-month SST departures in the Niño 3.4 region near or exceeding +2.0oC. Overall, there is an approximately 95% chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-16, gradually weakening through spring 2016 (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).


Late fall early winter would be end of November to early December as far as I know, and these guys are the pros, so I think it's safe to stick with that forecast.

That is an interesting response. I can't post the Weatherbell paywall models here. But I agree with you, we best leave this to the ProMets and not argue among ourselves.

Ahh, if you would had said Weatherbell since the beginning we would had known where you were getting that the El Nino has peaked.
JB has been downplaying this El Nino.
I take it as him just being biased, just my opinion. His forecast for a 2002 repeat so far has busted.

[tolakram]

That is an interesting response. I can't post the Weatherbell paywall models here. But I agree with you, we best leave this to the ProMets and not argue among ourselves.

I'm a paid subscriber to Weatherbell as well. I see some CFSV2 charts being posted when it shows cooling, the latest being a comparison of forecasts, but I have yet to see any actual cooling.

Here is SST animations of actual conditions from Late June until Sept 9th.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/sstanim.shtml

saved image


I see fairly steady, shifting west, and then maybe some slight warming but steady is probably a better description. What I don't see is cooling.

Here are the latest weekly actuals.


To be fair to JB, he is working on the winter forecast and is posting CSFV2 prediction comparisons, showing how CSFV2 was predicting a much warmer el nino than what actually happened and is now correcting cooler. These are still predictions, not actuals, so while the CSFV2 shows cooling from earlier forecasts the actuals are still warming.

[NDG]

Nino 1+2 warmed up a little this week so I would expect Monday's update to show it.

[WPBWeather]

That is an interesting response. I can't post the Weatherbell paywall models here. But I agree with you, we best leave this to the ProMets and not argue among ourselves.

Ahh, if you would had said Weatherbell since the beginning we would had known where you were getting that the El Nino has peaked.
JB has been downplaying this El Nino.
I take it as him just being biased, just my opinion. His forecast for a 2002 repeat so far has busted.

Guilty as charged, your honor.

[Ntxw]

Reynolds SST's (uses OISST for the weekly updates) shows 3C or greater anomaly about the eastern half of Nino 3.4. Even 4C+ pocket is showing up near 100W. Wouldn't be out of the realm of possibility if we see weekly readings in the 2.4-2.6C or higher sometime within the next 2 months as it works it's way west (anoms), while actual SST's warm eastward.





September is often the the time when El Nino events weaken before they really go to town in the fall due to intraseasonal shifts of SST's. So far it's done very little to the blossoming event.

If you are wondering 2.8C is the weekly mark for 1997's peak in late November.

[Dean_175]

Interesting that some people are not convinced that this is a strong episode when it is currently up there with 1997, 1982 and 1972.

Just the fact that there has not been tropical development west of 65 deg Long since the middle of July, speaks volume. And the two storms that tried to track west of 65W got decapitated. I have no idea either why people are not convinced yet, lol.
Glad the JB gave up during the past couple of days on comparing this El Nino to 2002.

And yes, the El Nino has peaked.

I don't think the event has peaked quite yet. I can see where you are coming from though and I don't think that we will see that much strengthening from here on out.

The interesting thing is the subsurface temperature profile. A while ago CFS had very warm subsurface anomalies (6C+) persisting through the fall. Now CFS shows 3-4C subsurface anomalies in October. This might result in slower strengthening- but not necessarily weakening. We'd need a strong WWB to force another robust Kelvin wave to maintain very large subsurface temp anomalies. Since there is a delay between a strong WWB and the full ocean adjustment - we are running out of time for that to occur.

[Ntxw]

The interesting thing is the subsurface temperature profile. A while ago CFS had very warm subsurface anomalies (6C+) persisting through the fall. Now CFS shows 3-4C subsurface anomalies in October. This might result in slower strengthening- but not necessarily weakening. We'd need a strong WWB to force another robust Kelvin wave to maintain very large subsurface temp anomalies. Since there is a delay between a strong WWB and the full ocean adjustment - we are running out of time for that to occur.

Plus the event is already way up there, it takes exponentially more to go even higher. Something I've noticed not sure if you have too, the CFSv2 is very sensitive it seems to the oceanic Kelvin waves. It seems to go off the roof with forecasts during the weeks there is an active or to be WWB but after it passes it lowers. It's been on this cycle for months.

[NDG]

That's the atmospheric index Nino forecast.
Below is the actual latest Sept 1st ECMWF ENSO forecast for 3.4 which it forecasts to peak in Nov/Dec time frame.

[Ntxw]

As suggested earlier by NDG I started a thread over in the USA weather forums about the California/Southwest rainy season. Already this week there will be action to talk about with EPAC bringing unusual rains to the region.

viewtopic.php?f=24&t=117573

[Ntxw]

Unless I'm misinterpreting that EC atmospheric model NDG as it appears to me it indicates a downward trend in the atmospheric coupling has already begun. With that said i usually rely on the BOM updates they call the shots. On another note ENSO affects are Global far more reaching than just the California/Southwest rain forecast. In my neck of the woods it spells bush fires (ASH WEDNESDAY) drought farmers going under loosing their livelyhoods and the needless death of millions of animals.

.

Hopefully your government set plans well ahead for such a loss because of the ENSO event for those farmers and resources to fighting fires. That's the importance of such long term forecast, this event did not sneak up on everybody it has been well advertised. We can discuss freely in a forum like this one, but a government agency is another and hopefully they have not been downplaying the event and instead been proactive in preventing loss.

[Ntxw]

Update tomorrow and the satellite presentations this week shows little change. +/- 0.1C seems reasonable.

There is westerly winds going on near the dateline and should progress east. SSH is still rising throughout the basin so doesn't appear like any major cooling will take place in the foreseeable future.

[Ntxw]

This week's update will hold steady at 2.3C.

All the other regions warmed

[cycloneye]

Here is the text of the CPC update of 9/21/15 that has Nino 3.4 at +2.3C.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[Ntxw]

One thing to note from the update is that Nino 1+2 is higher than nino 3.4 this week at 2.6C. It has remained above 2C for a month now so its not like there's been significant cooling there as some have portrayed. This is not modoki El Nino by definition. I've heard this term thrown around yet still when a true modoki event has La Nina like readings in the east.

To add, in a post above, the current going WWB is the strongest of the past month. We're about to see what this nino is made of at peak.

[NDG]

Yeap, traditional El Nino at its best.

[HURRICANELONNY]

:uarrow: Yeap, traditional El Nino at its best.

Can you post the SST's of 1997-98 elnino for around same time. To compare to this one.

[NDG]

:uarrow: Yeap, traditional El Nino at its best.

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anoma ... 1.2015.gif

Can you post the SST's of 1997-98 elnino for around same time. To compare to this one.

[Hurricaneman]

From about 100W on westward seems to be equal to 1997 the only area that is cooler is the 1-2 area

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[HURRICANELONNY]

:uarrow: Yeap, traditional El Nino at its best.

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anoma ... 1.2015.gif

Can you post the SST's of 1997-98 elnino for around same time. To compare to this one.

Thanks for the info...