Pouch P17L in Eastern Atlantic -(Now Invest 97L)

[Hurricaneman]

Not much different so far

[ROCK]

in 66hrs this will be knocking on the door of the islands....that high is strong to move it that fast...sheesh...

[rockyman]

Almost identical so far...perhaps slightly slower

[SFLcane]

Not sure if this was posted...

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
330 PM EDT WED AUG 17 2011

VALID 12Z SAT AUG 20 2011 - 12Z WED AUG 24 2011

THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A WEST COAST RIDGE AND ERN NOAM
TROF. FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A LONG TIME...THERE WILL BE AN AREA
OF ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ALONG THE PACIFIC NW COAST ALMOST THE
ENTIRE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.


THE ONLY CHANGE TO FINAL GRAPHICS WAS TO ADJUST AN ERN CONUS COLD
FRONT FASTER BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AFTER IT BECAME OBVIOUS
THAT ALL THE NEW 12Z DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE NEW
GFS...WAS STAYING AWAY FROM THE SLOWER 00Z AND 06Z GFS FAMILY OF
SOLUTIONS IN CANADA DAYS 6-7 WHICH HAD ALSO BEEN SUPPORTED BY THE
00Z DGEX/CANADIAN. IN RESPONSE TO SOMEWHAT FLATTER FLOW UPSTREAM
ACROSS SWRN CANADA THAN CONSENSUS OF 00Z GUIDANCE...THE NEW ECMWF
AND GFS ARE FILLING/LIFTING OUT THE TROF ALONG THE E COAST OF THE
CONUS FASTER BY NEXT WED DAY 7 THAN THEIR 00Z CONTINUITY. IF UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS DEPARTING TROF FROM THE
ATLANTIC...IT WOULD OPEN THE DOOR FOR TROPICAL ACTIVITY TO AFFECT
THE SE COAST OF THE LOWER 48 BEYOND A WEEKS TIME. HPC AND NHC WILL
BE FOLLOWING A WAVE ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT
WEEK...EXPECTING IT TO BE SOMEWHERE VICINITY OF THE BAHAMAS BY
THIS TIME NEXT WEEK. PLEASE STAY CURRENT ON NHC DISCUSSIONS OVER
THE NEXT WEEK.

[weatherguy2]

78 hour:

[ROCK]

nice big fat ridge

[weatherguy2]

hr 90:

[ROCK]

ok lets have one dude post the graphics....no sense to wasting bandwidth with all these images....

[rockyman]

Still practically identical through 96 hours

[Scorpion]

Right on schedule for the 12th consecutive FL hit

[WeatherEmperor]

ok lets have one dude post the graphics....no sense to wasting bandwidth with all these images....

Yeah no offense to anybody else but I agree. I hope everybody understands. ROCK, please post the pics. Thanks!

[ROCK]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_084l.gif


this looks over cooked IMO....first the GFS cant find a storm then when it does it goes bonkers with it....

[ROCK]

ok lets have one dude post the graphics....no sense to wasting bandwidth with all these images....

Yeah no offense to anybody else but I agree. I hope everybody understands. ROCK, please post the pics. Thanks!

someone else can do it.....they seem to get a few hours ahead of me anyway....I will just comment....

[ConvergenceZone]

Keep up the graphics Rock! Looking forward to seeing what it does this time as it approaches the US

[rockyman]

Another direct hit on Hispaniola:

[weatherguy2]

Here you go hr120:
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal120.gif

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

Also direct hit on SW Puerto Rico in 108 hrs

[ROCK]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_102l.gif

ridge is holding ....under PR...getting stronger....

with heat content like this it should if shear is not an issue or the dreaded dry air....

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

[rockyman]

Low pressure moving into Maine is a good bit stronger on this run (997 mb!)...could move it more poleward sooner

[weatherguy2]

Hour 126:



Hour 132:
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal132.gif