2014 WPAC Season

[euro6208]

What the models are showing is not 94W right?

Yes...likely 95W soon...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

94W would likely dissipate overland while 95W is expected to be a monster.

[euro6208]

06Z Parellel GFS takes this into Luzon and EURO at end of run has storm east of visayas vs original GFS's recruve...

[cycloneye]

From the Guam NWS about the developing cyclone in the next few days.

MODELS ARE STILL GRAPPLING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION OVER THE NEXT WEEK OR SO...WITH A DIFFERENT
PLAN WITH EACH MODEL RUN. FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS...THE GFS
AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING A CYCLONE IN THE CHUUK-POHNPEI
REGION AND MOVING IT GENERALLY WNW. THE ECMWF TAKES A DEVELOPING
CYCLONE BETWEEN YAP AND KOROR THIS COMING WEDNESDAY...THEN FORMS A
SECOND CYCLONE BETWEEN YAP AND CHUUK THE FOLLOWING MONDAY. THE 12Z
GFS FORMS TWIN CIRCULATIONS SOUTH OF CHUUK AND POHNPEI SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...THEN MERGES THEM TUES NIGHT AND MOVES THE
RESULT AS A TYPHOON BETWEEN YAP AND GUAM WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
BUT THE EARLIER 06Z GFS TAKES THE STORM MUCH FURTHER SOUTH...NEAR
YAP.

SINCE SATELLITE SHOWS PLENTY OF DISTURBED WEATHER AROUND POHNPEI
AND KOSRAE...CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT SEEMS QUITE POSSIBLE THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...BUT DETAILS ARE FAR FROM SETTLED. AS A RESULT...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE BEYOND THE NEXT 3 DAYS OR SO IS LOW...AND RESIDENTS OF
THE MARIANAS SHOULD KEEP TABS ON ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

[cycloneye]

Taking their time to designate the invest as this should be one already by the look.

[euro6208]

Taking their time to designate the invest as this should be one already by the look.

agreed...

another classic close to the equator long tracker. many islands in the path..interesting days ahead!

[euro6208]

LLC if there is one seems to be in the southern hemisphere...Crossover?

[cycloneye]

LLC if there is one seems to be in the southern hemisphere...Crossover?

http://i.imgur.com/14QSaTj.jpg?1

They may be waiting for it to cross the equator to then have the invest up.Otherwise,this should have been already a invest.

[euro6208]

LLC if there is one seems to be in the southern hemisphere...Crossover?

http://i.imgur.com/14QSaTj.jpg?1

They may be waiting for it to cross the equator to then have the invest up.Otherwise,this should have been already a invest.

Another amazing photo...Black line is equator and this system is very large. West of Nauru and Northeast of New Caledonia with outflow extending almost to Fiji...

[euro6208]

COC forming closer to the west pacific but still south of equator in the south pacific...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Are there any other systems [except Agni] that crossed the equator from south to north?

[xtyphooncyclonex]

In that image, the center actually appears to be near 1N

[euro6208]

Pacific Streamline Analysis from NWS Guam has low now over the WPAC...Invest 95W?

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Wew

[euro6208]

Seems like ages waiting for this invest designation It already looks classifiable as a TD or a TS

[jaguarjace]

SSD has set up a floater for this system.
No invest designation per NRL/FNMOC yet.

[cycloneye]

Invest 95W is up

[euro6208]

A few of the models especially EURO and GFS suggesting more activity later on...

[cycloneye]

It looks like more activity is on the pipe on GFS long range.

[mrbagyo]

Most beautiful storm (appearance wise) of 2014 goes to ______________?
Take your pick

I pick Hagupit closely folled by Vongfong.