2015 Global model runs discussion

[ninel conde]

Ok, you all had your say, let's get back to model runs.

Ninel, if this is about Erika use the Erika model thread and present some evidence of the evaporating ridge please.

evaporating ridge wont effect erika:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=180hr

see it clearly here. strong negative NAO, low pressure over se canada, and we can see a huge break in the ridge.

[stormlover2013]

also euro shows trough kicking out quick to the east and doesn't dig as for out, friday or saturday we will have a pretty good idea on how the pattern will be

[gatorcane]

240 hour ECMWF. Note new Cape Verde system to the east.

[WPBWeather]

I wonder where our MDR deniers are at the moment??

[Siker]

Both the Euro and the GFS show a strong CV wave coming off of Africa in about 6 days, both showing development very quickly as It tracks westward.

[gatorcane]

More Cape Verde activity from the 12Z ECMWF:

[Gustywind]

More Cape Verde activity from the 12Z ECMWF:

We have to wait for more consistency for the next runs but looks like some activity is maybe on tape. We shall see...

[gatorcane]

Although all models busted on Erika in the short to medium range, I am going to give some credit to the GFS for it's long-range prediction. If we rewind back to last weekend, the model was basically showing a weak low taking basically the same path that Erika took. Granted the GFS started showing a hurricane near or just east of the FL peninsula for a few runs on Wed/Thu. time frame when Erika was near or over the NE leewards but it did back off.

Meanwhile the European models - the ECMWF and UKMET were bombing this thing out anywhere from just north of Puerto Rico (in the case of the UKMET) and as far west as the Bahamas depending upon the run on a recurve path.

I think the GFS upgrades have improved the model this year and will be giving it some more weight when looking at the models the rest of this hurricane season.

[NDG]

Yeah, overall the GFS did the best among the horrible models lol.
Really disappointed in the Euro and UKMET this year in our basin.

[Ntxw]

Was it the GFS doing better? Or was the most (any) conservative model the best for the basin given the struggles?

[South Texas Storms]

The GFS has been hinting in some of it's runs over the past few days that at an area of low pressure will form in the Bay of Campeche in about 10 days. The 0z GFS shows a TS moving inland into south Texas around September 11.

[gatorcane]

The 12Z GFS has the Gulf low again, and also a pretty nice area of disturbed weather with a broad low pressure area east of the southern Leewards:

[gatorcane]

The 18Z GFS is showing another Cape Verde system that rolls off Africa in about 3-4 days and it traverses west across the Atlantic with gradual development through 10 days.

Graphic below shows it a 1002MB tropical storm between the Leewards and Africa. Also included 700MB steering, 216 hours is where this system appears to be the strongest on this run:




I circled the wave that the GFS is developing below:

[gatorcane]

The GFS does have support from the GEM which quickly develops this same wave as soon as it rolls off the coast and shoots it NW into a weakness.

[Weatherlover12]

Does anyone think another system could threatened the U.S./Fla this year?
Not hyping for one.. But Erika has boiled my interested and I have all these supplies trying to prepare for her?

[TheStormExpert]

Does anyone think another system could threatened the U.S./Fla this year?
Not hyping for one.. But Erika has boiled my interested and I have all these supplies trying to prepare for her?

Yeah Erika most certainly got me all worked up over nothing. I know the same certainly can't be said for those in the Caribbean but having what almost looked like a possible legit hurricane threat to Florida for several days can be something else!

Personally I don't think Florida has much to be concerned about since the MDR/Caribbean are quite hostile for the most part, and shear seems to be all over the place limiting anything that wants to try and get going. Though IMHO IF Erika was well organized from the start(vertically stacked) it really IMO could've been Florida's first hurricane hit in 10 years! So that's something to think about.

All in all here in Florida we've been lucky for way too long and everything has been working in our favor lately.

Still could be wrong about a potential Florida threat for the rest of the season so be prepared just in case!

[gatorcane]

Looking at the global models, there doesn't look to be any threat to Florida or the U.S. in the next week at least. That said, for Southern Florida, September is the month where more major hurricanes have hit than any other month, while October is the month where more tropical storms and hurricanes have hit than any other month. So a long way to go for South Florida. Fortunately things look quiet for the first week in September at least.

One would think with the super El Nino, it should hopefully continue to keep the Caribbean at check which is where the majority of South Florida strikes originate (from the south NOT the east). But El Nino is no guarantee and as TheStormExpert mentioned, be prepared is all you can do.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[LarryWx]

Does anyone think another system could threatened the U.S./Fla this year?
Not hyping for one.. But Erika has boiled my interested and I have all these supplies trying to prepare for her?

Per ENSO analogs (2nd year strong) fwiw, I have been stating for several weeks that I think there is a heightened risk of a H hit or two (with one possibly as strong as cat 3) to the NE Gulf (centered on NW FL) some time during the ~9/15-10/15 period and have been thinking that could easily be the worst period for the CONUS as a whole this season. We'll see as analogs like these do NOT make outright predictions. They only provide hints. My point is to not get complacent about a relatively quiet early season for the CONUS in case ENSO analogs have any clue.

This was my 1,000th post in case anyone cares. It feels good to finally make cat 5 just behind Ninel.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

The gulf and even more so the Caribbean has been the most inhospitable i have seen in a long time. Don't see how a minimal hurricane much less major threatens the gulf coast. Especially from here on out as el nino is only going to flex its muscles more and more.

[ninel conde]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=180hr

nice pattern for something big to develop in the sw atlantic or west carib if it werent for el nino.