2017 WPAC Season
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season
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- 1900hurricane
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season
Named storms have been near average, but stats such as Average TS Duration, ACE per TS, and ACE per TS Day are all in the bottom three going back to 1970.
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- CyclonicFury
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season
1900hurricane wrote:Named storms have been near average, but stats such as Average TS Duration, ACE per TS, and ACE per TS Day are all in the bottom three going back to 1970.
Definitely a weak season, that's for sure. Only one minimal Category 5 equivalent and that was for just 6 hours (Noru). What's really notable about this season is how weak the storms have been east of the Philippines. Not a single typhoon has hit the Philippines this year. Feels like the WPAC's 2013, to a lesser extreme.
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- 1900hurricane
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season
My biggest complaint on the year would have to be the handling of Typhoon Banyan by both JMA and JTWC. I think both agencies were for the most part too low with intensity from genesis to extratropical transition of the small typhoon, but particularly when Banyan rapidly intensified on August 12th. Instantaneous DTs were nearly that expected of a category 5 by 18Z. Constraints obviously come into play, but I think it's safe to assume that it ended up becoming a category 3 at the end of the intensification bout, and I'd even argue for a category 4 (although I am a little aggressive at times).
At the time of the image above, the JMA intensity estimate was 70 kt and the one from JTWC was at 80 kt.
At the time of the image above, the JMA intensity estimate was 70 kt and the one from JTWC was at 80 kt.
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- xtyphooncyclonex
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season
CyclonicFury wrote:1900hurricane wrote:Named storms have been near average, but stats such as Average TS Duration, ACE per TS, and ACE per TS Day are all in the bottom three going back to 1970.
Definitely a weak season, that's for sure. Only one minimal Category 5 equivalent and that was for just 6 hours (Noru). What's really notable about this season is how weak the storms have been east of the Philippines. Not a single typhoon has hit the Philippines this year. Feels like the WPAC's 2013, to a lesser extreme.
What if the GFS gets its right with 98W? Hmmm.... Not to mention Tembin, now approaching typhoon status headed for the most unprecedented location: Southern Palawan
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- xtyphooncyclonex
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season
#BringBackVicente
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REMINDER: My opinions that I, or any other NON Pro-Met in this forum, are unofficial. Please do not take my opinions as an official forecast and warning. I am NOT a meteorologist. Following my forecasts blindly may lead to false alarm, danger and risk if official forecasts from agencies are ignored.
Re: 2017 WPAC Season
2017 WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONES
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season
The ATCR report will be out next month or sooner.
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season
Below are some of the major adjustments that JTWC has made in their 2017 best track.
1. Noru’s peak intensity was adjusted downward to 135 knots, meaning that 2017 was the first WPAC season since 1977 without a category 5 based on JTWC best track.
2. Banyan’s peak intensity was bumped up to 110 knots.
3. Nammadol’s peak intensity was adjusted to 65 knots, making it a category 1.
4. Nalgae’s peak intensity was bumped up to 60 knots but it was classified as a subtropical storm during its peak.
Storms in SHEM generally received an upward adjustment of 5-10 knots in peak intensity. In particular,
1. Ernie’s peak intensity was adjusted to 140 knots, making it a category 5;
2. Debbie’s peak intensity was also revised to 115 knots, making it a category 4;
3. Donna’s peak intensity was bumped up to 125 knots as well.
For NIO, Mora’s peak intensity was revised to 80 knots while there were no major adjustments for other storms.
1. Noru’s peak intensity was adjusted downward to 135 knots, meaning that 2017 was the first WPAC season since 1977 without a category 5 based on JTWC best track.
2. Banyan’s peak intensity was bumped up to 110 knots.
3. Nammadol’s peak intensity was adjusted to 65 knots, making it a category 1.
4. Nalgae’s peak intensity was bumped up to 60 knots but it was classified as a subtropical storm during its peak.
Storms in SHEM generally received an upward adjustment of 5-10 knots in peak intensity. In particular,
1. Ernie’s peak intensity was adjusted to 140 knots, making it a category 5;
2. Debbie’s peak intensity was also revised to 115 knots, making it a category 4;
3. Donna’s peak intensity was bumped up to 125 knots as well.
For NIO, Mora’s peak intensity was revised to 80 knots while there were no major adjustments for other storms.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC and NWS products.
Re: 2017 WPAC Season
40 year record of category 5's broken. Incredible.
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- 1900hurricane
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Re: 2017 WPAC Season
Here are the 2017 totals and differences from operational in the table format I like to use.
I haven't done any reanalysis for 1977 yet, but I do suspect that year had a system or two worthy of category 5 intensity. The next year prior to that without a category 5 is 1974, although I'm also a little skeptical with 1999 and Bart personally.
I haven't done any reanalysis for 1977 yet, but I do suspect that year had a system or two worthy of category 5 intensity. The next year prior to that without a category 5 is 1974, although I'm also a little skeptical with 1999 and Bart personally.
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Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
Opinions expressed are mine alone.
Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/
Opinions expressed are mine alone.
Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/
Re: 2017 WPAC Season
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
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