2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[cycloneye]

I have a interesting take of the area GFS and now ICON develop off the Carolinas and that is this may break the ridge a little to then allow any CAG area to lift north.

[wxman57]

If the GFS lacks support from other models, then this is almost certainly a modelcane. It tried to do the same thing the second week of May, predicting a hurricane into the northern Gulf around May 23-25. It did see increasing moisture in the East Pacific (eventual development of Agatha) but it focused development in the Caribbean, which was wrong. Looks like the same situation now. We will likely see development in the EPAC next week. If some of the moisture eventually makes it into the Gulf, then we'll have to keep an eye on it, but the current GFS solution of a major hurricane into Louisiana has a near zero chance of happening.

GFS on May 15th valid Sunday, May 22. That's Agatha that the Euro and Canadian are developing in the EPAC.

[skyline385]

I have a interesting take of the area GFS and now ICON develop off the Carolinas and that is this may break the ridge a little to then allow any CAG area to lift north.

That would kinda explain the spread in the recent ensembles

[hurricane2025]

Gfs is finally figuring it out lol

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Something is going to develop in the next 10 days it’s a matter of how strong will it be. IMO

Yep, on the EPAC side. Development looks unlikely in the Atlantic over the next 10 days.

Maybe in the deep tropics but models have been subtly hinting at some sort of MCS/frontal disturbance emerging off the SE coast that could spin up into a (S)TC. So I wouldn't conclusively say Atlantic development won't occur the next 10 days.



 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1535298989167214592

[South Texas Storms]

Something is going to develop in the next 10 days it’s a matter of how strong will it be. IMO

Yep, on the EPAC side. Development looks unlikely in the Atlantic over the next 10 days.

Maybe in the deep tropics but models have been subtly hinting at some sort of MCS/frontal disturbance emerging off the SE coast that could spin up into a (S)TC. So I wouldn't conclusively say Atlantic development won't occur period over the next 10 days.

https://i.ibb.co/pRSq0cL/icon-mslp-pcpn-watl-60-1.png
https://i.ibb.co/XYXpmMV/gfs-mslp-pcpn-seus-25-1.png
https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1535298989167214592

Yeah we certainly can't rule development out off the Southeast U.S. coast next week, but like Eric said in his tweet, chances are pretty low right now. Notice how I said "Development looks unlikely in the Atlantic over the next 10 days". I never speak in absolute terms when it comes to predicting the weather.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Yep, on the EPAC side. Development looks unlikely in the Atlantic over the next 10 days.

Maybe in the deep tropics but models have been subtly hinting at some sort of MCS/frontal disturbance emerging off the SE coast that could spin up into a (S)TC. So I wouldn't conclusively say Atlantic development won't occur period over the next 10 days.

https://i.ibb.co/pRSq0cL/icon-mslp-pcpn-watl-60-1.png
https://i.ibb.co/XYXpmMV/gfs-mslp-pcpn-seus-25-1.png
https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1535298989167214592

Yeah we certainly can't rule development out off the Southeast U.S. coast next week, but like Eric said in his tweet, chances are pretty low right now. Notice how I said "Development looks unlikely in the Atlantic over the next 10 days". I never speak in absolute terms when it comes to predicting the weather.

Yeah sorry I misunderstood.

[zzh]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1535301560477040641

[SFLcane]

Um....

[cycloneye]

And then there is this.

[Kingarabian]

Not surprising considering that some models show actual westerlies in the MDR at this time frame.

[Category5Kaiju]

Um....

https://i.postimg.cc/SKL9G8tG/wave.gif

Elsa 2.0??

[toad strangler]

Um....

https://i.postimg.cc/SKL9G8tG/wave.gif

SAL will doom this lol

[MHC Tracking]

Um....

https://i.postimg.cc/SKL9G8tG/wave.gif

Rising motion over Africa modeled around this time, well-amplified waves shown in the long range should come as no huge surprise.

[skyline385]

Both GEFS and EPS showing activity in the Gulf, not much on the wave in the MDR except for a handful of members. GEFS is showing a lot of members for the MCS off NC.

[ChrisH-UK]

Both GFS and ECWMF are having a storm in the Atlantic near Bermuda next thursday. The vortices are stacked at 850, 700 and 500mb and the GFS has it in a low shear environment, looks like it could be a area to watch.

[aspen]

18z GFS drops the MCS system.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

 https://twitter.com/wxtrackercody/status/1535352434163429376

[skyline385]

0Z GFS looks like a realistic solution based on climo, a Cat 1/2 in the BoC. Texas could be in play here as well as both GEFS and EPS have some members slightly more north.

[Category5Kaiju]

0Z GFS looks like a realistic solution based on climo, a Cat 1/2 in the BoC. Texas could be in play here as well as both GEFS and EPS have some members slightly more north.

https://i.imgur.com/AcD825Y.png

Yeah, not sure about a Cat 3/4 hitting Louisiana or Florida at this time of the year...(I mean, I personally am not expecting something as anomalous as Audrey or Alma anyways)