TD#9

[clfenwi]

WHXX01 KWBC 070646
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE (AL092005) ON 20050807 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050807 0600 050807 1800 050808 0600 050808 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 19.5N 44.2W 19.7N 45.4W 20.0N 46.6W 20.4N 47.8W
BAMM 19.5N 44.2W 20.0N 45.9W 20.4N 47.4W 20.8N 48.9W
A98E 19.5N 44.2W 20.1N 45.8W 20.6N 47.2W 21.3N 48.4W
LBAR 19.5N 44.2W 19.9N 45.8W 20.6N 47.8W 21.4N 49.7W
SHIP 30KTS 29KTS 30KTS 32KTS
DSHP 30KTS 29KTS 30KTS 32KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050809 0600 050810 0600 050811 0600 050812 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 20.9N 49.0W 22.7N 52.5W 25.3N 56.9W 27.7N 60.5W
BAMM 21.0N 50.2W 22.2N 53.5W 24.4N 57.5W 26.6N 60.9W
A98E 22.4N 49.4W 25.2N 52.1W 28.2N 54.5W 29.9N 53.8W
LBAR 22.1N 51.7W 24.7N 55.7W 28.1N 59.1W 31.2N 60.0W
SHIP 34KTS 43KTS 51KTS 54KTS
DSHP 34KTS 43KTS 51KTS 54KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 19.5N LONCUR = 44.2W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 18.8N LONM12 = 42.8W DIRM12 = 295DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 17.5N LONM24 = 41.0W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

06Z models...

[elysium]

The center hasn't reformed, it never separated in the first place. It's the same center. What i am referring to is that the convection has begun wrapping around the center on the western quadrants, with the heavier convection being pushed closer and closer to the actual center located just to the west of the heavier convection. The center has slowed down somewhat and the sheer has lessend significantly on the western side of the center. I have read some threads alluding to the circulation to the northwest of the main body of heavier convection, however, that circulation is the center. The rotation of heavy convection to its immediate S.E. is not an new LLC. It may look something like LLC, but it's actually turbulence within the heavy convection. It looks impressive but it's just convection. That convection in time will make its way to the center. In fact, just now on IR, we are getting the first indication of magenta entering into the actual center.

What is important is that the center is completely surrounded by building convection. The directional heading appears to be due west at the time of this writing. TD 9 should stay on this nearly due west heading for about 24 hrs and then begin heading W.N.W. into a weakness in the ridge. TD 9 should then revert back to a due west heading somewhere near the vicinity of 23N and 70W under prestine conditions conducive for rapid intensification. It is still too early to designate possible landfall sites or even give estimates on intensity at time of landfall. There is also some possibility that TD 9 will not respond sharply to the weakness in the ridge and this could possibly drive TD 9 across the spine of the Greater Antilles where it would be torn up.

[clfenwi]

The center hasn't reformed, it never separated in the first place. It's the same center. What i am referring to is that the convection has begun wrapping around the center on the western quadrants, with the heavier convection being pushed closer and closer to the actual center located just to the west of the heavier convection. The center has slowed down somewhat and the sheer has lessend significantly on the western side of the center. I have read some threads alluding to the circulation to the northwest of the main body of heavier convection, however, that circulation is the center. The rotation of heavy convection to its immediate S.E. is not an new LLC. It may look something like LLC, but it's actually turbulence within the heavy convection. It looks impressive but it's just convection. That convection in time will make its way to the center. In fact, just now on IR, we are getting the first indication of magenta entering into the actual center.

What is important is that the center is completely surrounded by building convection. The directional heading appears to be due west at the time of this writing. TD 9 should stay on this nearly due west heading for about 24 hrs and then begin heading W.N.W. into a weakness in the ridge. TD 9 should then revert back to a due west heading somewhere near the vicinity of 23N and 70W under prestine conditions conducive for rapid intensification. It is still too early to designate possible landfall sites or even give estimates on intensity at time of landfall. There is also some possibility that TD 9 will not respond sharply to the weakness in the ridge and this could possibly drive TD 9 across the spine of the Greater Antilles where it would be torn up.

Any resemblance between reality and this post is purely coincidental.

[Sanibel]

The center looks to have jumped north.

[elysium]

Just hit the IR one last time before turning in and unbelievable. The center is actually beginning to wrap around the heavier main body of magenta convection. Magenta has clearly entered the center as the center continues to slow its forward speed. The hostile conditions this system has fought for a long time now finally have relaxed and are allowing for more complete development. This is the best that TD 9 or 95L for that matter, has ever looked.

Tropical cyclones prefer the slow tranquil type of development in their early stages above all else. Slow is good.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Just hit the IR one last time before turning in and unbelievable. The center is actually beginning to wrap around the heavier main body of magenta convection. Magenta has clearly entered the center as the center continues to slow its forward speed. The hostile conditions this system has fought for a long time now finally have relaxed and are allowing for more complete development. This is the best that TD 9 or 95L for that matter, has ever looked.

Tropical cyclones prefer the slow tranquil type of development in their early stages above all else. Slow is good.

The LLC was under the new convection in which now appears to be getting sheared. The convection is now east of the LLC. Take a look at those clouds over the northwest quad blowing eastward. That is shear. The dry air is also very strong. Believe me the energy this system has used to stay alive is more then enough for it to have been a hurricane by this time.


1# The system is slightly better oreganized with the convection closer to the LLC. But that is slowly doing its same old game of getting sheared eastward.

2# The system is forming farther north at each reformation. Which means it is less likely to be a threat.

3# I expect once its get picked up(If its pass 55 west) That as its moving northeastward that it will finally move with the shear=a more favable enviroment.

So even so this is a sheared system=normal Gulf of Mexico system. It iwll likely stay a depression for the next few days.

[Astro_man92]

Just hit the IR one last time before turning in and unbelievable. The center is actually beginning to wrap around the heavier main body of magenta convection. Magenta has clearly entered the center as the center continues to slow its forward speed. The hostile conditions this system has fought for a long time now finally have relaxed and are allowing for more complete development. This is the best that TD 9 or 95L for that matter, has ever looked.

Tropical cyclones prefer the slow tranquil type of development in their early stages above all else. Slow is good.

The LLC was under the new convection in which now appears to be getting sheared. The convection is now east of the LLC. Take a look at those clouds over the northwest quad blowing eastward. That is shear. The dry air is also very strong. Believe me the energy this system has used to stay alive is more then enough for it to have been a hurricane by this time.


1# The system is slightly better oreganized with the convection closer to the LLC. But that is slowly doing its same old game of getting sheared eastward.

2# The system is forming farther north at each reformation. Which means it is less likely to be a threat.

3# I expect once its get picked up(If its pass 55 west) That as its moving northeastward that it will finally move with the shear=a more favable enviroment.

So even so this is a sheared system=normal Gulf of Mexico system. It iwll likely stay a depression for the next few days.

lol Idea!!!!

in the gulf it is like a hurricane is in the eye of a bigger hurricane it is moist, calm, HOT, NO SHEAR, do you get my Idea????????

[elysium]

Look at how the convection around the center is stacking outward to the west and flattening at the top. What that is telling you is that high pressure is building in from the east to west, and has gotten in between the ULL up to the north and the center. There is no evidence of sheer impacting the system's western quadrants. And no Matt, the LLC was never under the magenta.

What is important is how the lighter convection that has wrapped arounf the LLC just to the west of the heavier magenta convection, how that convection is oriented bulging forward on the western side and flattened downward at the top. That's telling you that high pressure is bearing down and that the system is free of sheer to its west.

Didn't mention it but if you look behind the system to the north and to the east, you will notice a large smattering field of high pressure cummulus racing east to west. That is the subtropical ridge building in powerfully. Notice also the ULL to the north of TD 9 being shunted up and over the ridge. That is what was causing the previous sheer. The only other sheer involves the trough which is being reinforced by Harvey. But that is ahead of TD 9 at about 55W. The only environmental factor effecting TD 9 at this hour is the building subtropical ridge over it. This ridge has been vastly underestimated as regards strength. It may have actually killed off TD 9 if it had lead to an appreciable increase in TD 9's forward speed. However, since the LLC slowed down, this will allow the heavier magenta convection to also wrap around the LLC, as the ridge bears down onto TD 9 from the east and northeast. TD 9 will also be heading pretty nearly due west as it begins its first real developmental stage as a closed system.

[elysium]

A little ragged, W.N.W. now. Not too concerned. Not catching as well as hoped.

[wxman57]

Here's a visible image. Seems to indicate it may be nearing TS strength. Center is very near the convection. At 20N/45W, it's hard to imagine this storm reaching the U.S. east coast.

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/irene16.gif">

[cycloneye]

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE AT 07/0900 UTC WAS NEAR
19.6N 44.7W MOVING WNW 9 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC OR MIATCPAT4/ WTNT34
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE DEPRESSION IS VERY CLOSE TO TROPICAL
STORM INTENSITY WITH CURVED CONVECTION CLOSE TO THE CENTER FOR
THE FIRST TIME. A LARGE UPPER LOW/TROUGH HAS BEEN SHEARING THE
SYSTEM BUT ITS INFLUENCE SEEMS TO BE WANING AS THE DEPRESSION
HAS PASSED THE TROUGH AXIS. COMPUTER MODELS ARE SPLIT ON
WHETHER THE SHEAR WILL CONTINUE AT MODERATE LEVELS DUE TO THE
UPPER TROUGH SPLITTING AND MOVING WESTWARD WITH THE DEPRESSION
OR ABATE DUE TO UPPER RIDGING BUILDING IN THE CENTRAL ATLC.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS IN THE ERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE
DEPRESSION FROM 18.5N-21.5N BETWEEN 41.5W-44.5W.

From the 8:05 AM Discussion.

I will not be surprised if we see Irene by the 11 AM advisorie or the 5 PM one as the center is not completly exposed as it was in the past few days.

[Thunder44]

I think if Dvorak estimates go up this morning we will see Irene at 11am.

[drezee]

It will be very hard to convice me that this is not a TS.

[Hyperstorm]

It appears that yesterday's LLC has dissipated and a new LLC has reformed further north. As long as this continues, it will remain alive. I now think that this has a good chance of becoming a named system due to these constant reformations. Now that the LLC center is tucked underneath of the heavier thunderstorms it deserves a name.

I really don't see this going past the latitude of Bermuda based on the initial position and the negative NAO we're in, which indicates a weaker subtropical ridge...

[cycloneye]

It appears that yesterday's LLC has dissipated and a new LLC has reformed further north. As long as this continues, it will remain alive. I now think that this has a good chance of becoming a named system due to these constant reformations. Now that the LLC center is tucked underneath of the heavier thunderstorms it deserves a name.

I really don't see this going past the latitude of Bermuda based on the initial position and the negative NAO we're in, which indicates a weaker subtropical ridge...

You meant longitud of Bermuda right not latitud?

[Hyperstorm]

It appears that yesterday's LLC has dissipated and a new LLC has reformed further north. As long as this continues, it will remain alive. I now think that this has a good chance of becoming a named system due to these constant reformations. Now that the LLC center is tucked underneath of the heavier thunderstorms it deserves a name.

I really don't see this going past the latitude of Bermuda based on the initial position and the negative NAO we're in, which indicates a weaker subtropical ridge...

You meant longitud of Bermuda right not latitud?

Oops...You're right. You can tell I'm still half asleep at this hour...

[txwatcher91]

I think TD 9 is a TS already. Look at the satellite picture and you can see the center is almost completely covered with convection.
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... E=al092005

[cycloneye]

If TD#9 is classified as TS Irene later today this thread will close and then I will make the Irene one where all the members can post their comments,sat pics,models etc same as this one.The Irene advisorie thread will be made but I would want to limit replies there and concentrate them in the Irene thread.Thanks for your cooperation as it has been what I wanted to see with this long thread and the advisorie thread.

[wxman57]

Well, it's Sunday morning and I'm at work, so I can make some nice McIdas images of Irene (I mean TD 9). TD 9 looks every bit as strong as Harvey now, which isn't saying much for Harvey. The center is beneath the convection near 20.4N/44.9W. I'll just post a link to my large image here:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/irene19.gif

[Thunder44]

07/1145 UTC 20.2N 44.8W T2.0/2.0 09