ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Ntxw]

Also 2C or greater has been seen on the weeklies for every week since August. It's time to oust Ersstv4 and include satellite, real time measurements. I heard they are using a new dataset anyway next year.

[1900hurricane]

With record breaking warmth in the Nino 4 region, we could be setting up for a ridiculous SPac tropical cyclone season.

[cycloneye]

With record breaking warmth in the Nino 4 region, we could be setting up for a ridiculous SPac tropical cyclone season.

Interesting angle about this warmup.

[Hurricaneman]

The SOI index is showing signs that westerlies in the ENSO regions seem to be possibly reversing as the -values seem to be less negative and may head into positive dailys soon and it could mean that indeed El Nino has peaked or about to peak within a week or 2 and don't be surprised if the ENSO 1-2 drop

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Ntxw]

The SOI index is showing signs that westerlies in the ENSO regions seem to be possibly reversing as the -values seem to be less negative and may head into positive dailys soon and it could mean that indeed El Nino has peaked or about to peak within a week or 2 and don't be surprised if the ENSO 1-2 drop

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Actually there is another weak to moderate WWB forecasted in the coming week. Continued weakening of the easterlies from just west of the dateline on eastward. There is no sign yet of the return to any meaningful easterlies yet. We'll likely carry the 2C+ readings through December and potentially January as the OKW begins to surface. It's a very slow process it can take months for the entire basin to reverse, this is why back in Aug/Sept some were calling peak that did not happen then.

[cycloneye]

Ntxw,look at this record ONI at this chart that Eric Webb posted on Twitter.

Eric Webb ‏@webberweather · 8m8 minutes ago
Kaplan Extended SSTv2 ONI (1990-Present). The latest value is a new record high for ASO, beating 1877 & 1997 #ElNino

[Ntxw]

Ntxw,look at this record ONI at this chart that Eric Webb posted on Twitter.

Eric Webb ‏@webberweather · 8m8 minutes ago
Kaplan Extended SSTv2 ONI (1990-Present). The latest value is a new record high for ASO, beating 1877 & 1997 #ElNino



http://i.imgur.com/3FFz4IP.png

Pretty amazing what's going on. ERSST is so far behind the other datasets. It's basically bare minimum that's how I see we should treat it. Real time and satellite included datasets all are generally close to each other. I suspect there will be much adjusting the next several months, nothing is final until the event is done. Also a new method will be replacing the current one in 2016.

Regardless no doubt this is the strongest ENSO event of the digital age for us, it's been quite an experience to track it. We likely won't see another El Nino of this magnitude for possibly another decade or more.

[Hurricaneman]

With this being the strongest el nino recorded{will probably be official by January} will we have another similar one in 15 years since they tend to come this strong every 10 to 15 years

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Ntxw]

Another WWB going into November, Nino 3.4 could be sitting around 3C by December. That is really out there for ENSO. I think 1982 may have had a brief stint near 3C but there are no weekly readings prior to 1990.

[Blown Away]

Didn't are current hurricane active era begin @1995, so if the 2015 El Nino is matching 1997 and we are still in the active era, wouldn't 1998 be a likely analog year for the 2016 season?

[cycloneye]

With this, El Nino will not go away anytime soon.

[cycloneye]

The new update that CPC does monthly has El Nino peaking by the Winter and then going down thru the Spring and by the Summer Neutral comes.Let's see if it pans out like they are proyecting.

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
12 November 2015


ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory




Synopsis: El Niño will likely peak during the Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-16, with a transition to ENSO-neutral anticipated during the late spring or early summer 2016.

A strong El Niño continued during October as indicated by well above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1). Most Niño indices increased during the month, although the far eastern Niño-1+2 index decreased, accentuating the maximum in anomalous SST farther west (Fig. 2). The subsurface temperature anomalies also increased in the central and eastern Pacific, in association with another downwelling equatorial oceanic Kelvin wave (Figs. 3, 4). Low-level westerly wind anomalies and upper-level easterly wind anomalies continued over the western to east-central tropical Pacific. Also, the traditional and equatorial Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) values remained negative. These conditions are associated with enhanced convection over the central and eastern tropical Pacific and with suppressed convection over Indonesia (Fig. 5). Collectively, these atmospheric and oceanic anomalies reflect a strong and mature El Niño episode.

Most models indicate that a strong El Niño will continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-16, followed by weakening and a transition to ENSO-neutral during the late spring or early summer (Fig. 6). The forecaster consensus remains nearly unchanged, with the expectation that this El Niño could rank among the top three strongest episodes as measured by the 3-month SST departures in the Niño 3.4 region going back to 1950. El Niño will likely peak during the Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-16, with a transition to ENSO-neutral anticipated during the late spring or early summer 2016 (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period.

[Ntxw]

Something of note, most guidance (that goes out that far) remains +PDO configuration through early summer next year

[Dean_175]

SOI daily contributions have been positive for a few days now-also seeing weakened westerly wind anomalies compared to what we are used to seeing. Could continue since GFS is showing the MJO to remain trapped in the Indian Ocean for possibly more than 2 weeks. I wonder how the monthly SOI/ESOI and wind anomalies will respond.

[WeatherGuesser]

A whole bunch of words that basically say 'there doesn't appear to be much real correlation' and 'we don't really know' and ends with this paragraph:

"Usually the best you can hope for with a two week outlook is to tell whether the pattern looks wetter or drier and warmer or colder than normal. Occasionally, the model forecasts are advertising so much uncertainty even that is impossible. Anyway, winter is coming soon. We’ll have to wait to see what it brings. "


https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/cap ... is-winter/

[Ntxw]

Subsurface warmth continues to expand east of the dateline. Apex of this El Nino is ongoing. We may see 3C on Monday wow. Of course the TAO buoys are malfunctioning at such a critical time, historic potential at that.

[cycloneye]

Good blog by Dr Bob Henson talking about what to expect in the Winter in the U.S with this strong El Nino.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... _ven=tw-jm

[Hurricaneman]

How could we possibly have a weekly above 3c+ above normal in El Nino, we have found out for the first time it looks like and I could see it going even higher than that ithrough mid December possibly peaking between +3.2 to 3.5 which is completely nuts and would make this the strongest recorded El Nino since records have been kept which also makes the 2015 hurricane season that much more remarkable as who knows what would have happened without El Nino but I do have a feeling that 2016 will show us what could have happened without El Nino as its expected to transition to Neutral to weak La Nina by the 2016 hurricane season

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Ntxw]

It looks like this, when 3C+ covers most of the area between 170-120W (Nino 3.4). If not this week surely the next, or the next. That 2.8C record won't be standing for long.

[NDG]

A closer look at a more detailed anomoly of Nino 3.4