ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Ntxw]

Unbelievable, there is raw westerlies in there. WWB?

[AJC3]

Luis,

What's the URL for that site? I use this one but values are not as precise:

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml

The ONI was just posted on the CPC site. Here: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/oni.ascii.txt

November's monthly came in at 2.35C , while October's was adjusted upwards to 2.04C (it was previously 1.86C).

The NOV (also the revised OCT) monthly can be seen here. Interestingly, both are 0.1C lower (OCT 2.03C, NOV 2.34C) than in CPC's other table.
Regardless, a truly historic warm episode.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... .ascii.txt

[Darvince]

Ntxw, where do you get the pics of the westerlies+forecast from?

[Ntxw]

Ntxw, where do you get the pics of the westerlies+forecast from?

Here you go, from Dr Ventrice's site. Depictions are from the GFS

http://mikeventrice.weebly.com/hovmollers.html

At the surface there are no anomalous easterlies to weaken the current state of the Nino to any significant degree within the next 2 weeks it seems. Also there is warm water pushing down again in the central Pacific with associated OKW. In short we may go through December without much change in the state of the El Nino. By eyeballing of trimonthly; OND could be around 2.2C +/- and NDJ will likely be very close to that as well.

[cycloneye]

The Doc says this El Nino has reached the peak.We will see.

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice · 4m4 minutes ago
We are likely in the peak of this year's Super El Nino. This El Nino will be recognized for years to come.

[Dean_175]

The older dataset's (ERSSTv3) ONI is even more impressive at 2.3C for SON -which exceeds the highest ONI for 1982 and is the same as 1997 for that trimonthly.

Even with this newer dataset- we will very likely reach an ONI of 2.0+ for 3 consecutive months- provided that the value of 2.0 for SON still stands after the climo is adjusted to 1986-2015.

[Ntxw]

The older dataset's (ERSSTv3) ONI is even more impressive at 2.3C for SON -which exceeds the highest ONI for 1982 and is the same as 1997 for that trimonthly.

Even with this newer dataset- we will very likely reach an ONI of 2.0+ for 3 consecutive months- provided that the value of 2.0 for SON still stands after the climo is adjusted to 1986-2015.

As long as the weeklies continues above 2.5C for the rest of December we will likely tie or eclipse 1997's ONI record.

[ronjon]

What El Nino? The weather in west-central Florida has been acting like a strong La Nina over the last two months - warm and dry. Might be another forecasting bust for our weather professionals regarding seasonal rainfall forecasts.

[cycloneye]

CPC update of 12/7/15 has Nino 3.4 down to +2.9C.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[Hurricaneman]

CPC update of 12/7/15 has Nino 3.4 down to +2.9C.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

It looks like we have a slow fall of ENSO until Spring and thats when the bottom drops out as the below normal Subsurface surfaces and we go to some form of neutral or low end La Nina as summer comes in

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[cycloneye]

BoM in it's 12/8/15 update says El Nino is near the peak.

2015 El Niño near its peak

Issued on 8 December 2015 | Product Code IDCKGEWW00

The strong 2015 El Niño event is near its peak. While sea surface temperatures remain close to record-high values, some El Niño indicators are now showing signs of easing. However, the current El Niño is likely to persist well into 2016.

El Niño indicators, notably sea surface and sub-surface temperatures, westerly wind anomalies in the central Pacific, and cloudiness near the Date Line, remain well above El Niño thresholds. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has eased back into neutral values, though this may be short-lived: the SOI tends to be more variable during the northern Australian wet season (October–April). Model outlooks and the strength of the current event suggest El Niño thresholds may continue to be exceeded well into the southern hemisphere autumn.

The 2015–16 El Niño is strong, and likely to rank in the top three events of the past 50 years. Presently, several key indicators fall short of their 1997–98 and 1982–83 values, both in the ocean (e.g. sub-surface temperatures, which have peaked around +8 °C this year, compared to +12 °C in 1997–98), and atmosphere (e.g. SOI, for which monthly values peaked around −20, while 1982–83 had several months at −30).

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

[cycloneye]

CPC December update of 12/10/15 says El Nino will remain strong thru Winter and then begins to fade by Spring.

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
10 December 2015


ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory




Synopsis: El Niño is expected to remain strong through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-16, with a transition to ENSO-neutral anticipated during late spring or early summer 2016.

A strong El Niño continued during November as indicated by well above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1). The Niño-4, Niño-3.4 and Niño-3 indices rose to their highest levels so far during this event, while the Niño-1+2 index remained approximately steady (Fig. 2). The subsurface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific, while still well above average, decreased slightly (Fig. 3) due to the eastward push of the upwelling phase of an equatorial oceanic Kelvin wave (Fig. 4). Low-level westerly wind anomalies and upper-level easterly wind anomalies continued over the most of the tropical Pacific. The traditional and equatorial Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) values remained negative. These conditions are associated with enhanced convection over the central tropical Pacific and suppressed convection over Indonesia (Fig. 5). Collectively, these atmospheric and oceanic anomalies reflect a strong El Niño episode that has matured.

Most models indicate that a strong El Niño will continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-16, followed by weakening and a transition to ENSO-neutral during the late spring or early summer (Fig. 6). The forecaster consensus remains nearly unchanged from last month, with the expectation that this El Niño will rank among the three strongest episodes as measured by the 3-month SST departures in the Niño 3.4 region dating back to 1950. El Niño is expected to remain strong through Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-16, with a transition to ENSO-neutral anticipated during the late spring or early summer 2016 (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

El Niño has already produced significant global impacts and is expected to affect temperature and precipitation patterns across the United States during the upcoming months (the 3-month seasonal outlook will be updated on Thursday December 17th). Seasonal outlooks indicate an increased likelihood of above-median precipitation across the southern tier of the United States, and below-median precipitation over the northern tier of the United States. Above-average temperatures are favored in the West and northern half of the country with below-average favored in the southern Plains and along the Gulf Coast.



http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... odisc.html

[cycloneye]

As always interesting blog from them.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/b ... mic-powers

[HURRICANELONNY]

Good read. Every El Nino is different. As he said. Will have to see the effects it will have this winter.

[Ptarmigan]

Good read. Every El Nino is different. As he said. Will have to see the effects it will have this winter.

I have looked at past strong Equatorial El Nino like the current one. I know there were strong ones in 1877-1878 and 1888-1889. 1896-1897 was drier for America, while 1997-1998 was wetter.

The 1877-1878 El Nino looks to be comparable to the current one. However, there are not a lot of weather data from that time. I noticed the 1870s had a multi-year La Nina. I see more of those, but the data from 1870s is limited. This is from ERSST v4 data.

ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v4/index/

[Ntxw]

2.8C this week, I think its safe to say the decline of the El Nino is on the works. ONI will still rise for a trimonthly and hold for another but the weeklies will be lowering. May fall below 2C mid January early Feb

[cycloneye]

The text of the update by CPC that has Nino 3.4 down to +2.8C.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

[cycloneye]

The latest PDO data shows a dip from +1.47 to the November data at +0.56.

http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest

[Hurricaneman]

Its looking like El Nino might be decreasing a bit faster than modeled and don't be surprised if the PDO goes negative sometime between February and early spring

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[xironman]

30 day SOI is not horrible at -11.05, so maybe not a total crash right away.