Not worth a new topic, but when do we decide if EPAC is stronger or Atlantic? (That is, strong EPAC = weak Atlantic vice versa)
Right now I would venture Atlantic is stronger because EPAC is sputtering again.
Central Atlantic / Eastern Atlantic
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
Re: Tropical Waves Between Lesser Antilles and West Africa
The wave still looks organized at 1:45am.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/avn-l.jpg
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/avn-l.jpg
0 likes
-
Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
000
AXNT20 KNHC 281054
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT JUN 28 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W/27W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR
10-15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF CONVECTION. ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS BETWEEN 6N-11N.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W S OF 11N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. A
BROAD MID TO LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NOTED ON INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 31W-37W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W/52W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR 15-20
KT. A SLIGHT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY CENTERED AROUND 9N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 150 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 8N-10N.
...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 11N25W 11N28W 9N36W 6N39W
4N45W 4N51W. IN ADDITION TO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL
WAVES...CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
MOVING OFF THE WEST AFRICAN COAST FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 14W-20W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE FROM
4N41W TO 8N47W.
AXNT20 KNHC 281054
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT JUN 28 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W/27W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR
10-15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF CONVECTION. ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS BETWEEN 6N-11N.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W S OF 11N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. A
BROAD MID TO LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NOTED ON INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 31W-37W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W/52W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR 15-20
KT. A SLIGHT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY CENTERED AROUND 9N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 150 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 8N-10N.
...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 11N25W 11N28W 9N36W 6N39W
4N45W 4N51W. IN ADDITION TO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL
WAVES...CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
MOVING OFF THE WEST AFRICAN COAST FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 14W-20W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE FROM
4N41W TO 8N47W.
0 likes
-
Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/avn-l.jpg
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/loop-avn.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/loop-rb.html
Nice cluster of convection exiting Africa, a very concentrated bulk not especially pretty large down the road....but let's see if it can survive as the models are showing a couple of disorganized lows travelling beetween Africa and the Lesser Antilles....
ITCZ...
IN ADDITION TO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL
WAVES...CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
MOVING OFF THE WEST AFRICAN COAST FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 14W-20W.
That's the mentionned cluster in the latest TWD.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS LOCATED NW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 23N27W AND IS PROVIDING AN UPPER DIFFLUENT PATTERN TO SUPPORT CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/loop-avn.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/loop-rb.html
Nice cluster of convection exiting Africa, a very concentrated bulk not especially pretty large down the road....but let's see if it can survive as the models are showing a couple of disorganized lows travelling beetween Africa and the Lesser Antilles....
ITCZ...
IN ADDITION TO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL
WAVES...CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
MOVING OFF THE WEST AFRICAN COAST FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 14W-20W.
That's the mentionned cluster in the latest TWD.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS LOCATED NW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 23N27W AND IS PROVIDING AN UPPER DIFFLUENT PATTERN TO SUPPORT CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ.
0 likes
-
Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg
Here is the area of concerned, i don't know if there's it's a surge or the convection associated with the wave at 52w ?!But but it's very windy for 10 minutes! and to complete i have moderate to strong passing showers too. The weather is grey , sad and windy here in Guadeloupe.
Here is the area of concerned, i don't know if there's it's a surge or the convection associated with the wave at 52w ?!But but it's very windy for 10 minutes! and to complete i have moderate to strong passing showers too. The weather is grey , sad and windy here in Guadeloupe.
0 likes
-
Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
000
AXNT20 KNHC 281805
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT JUN 28 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W/28W SOUTH OF 14N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING
WEST ABOUT 15 KT. SHOWERS FROM 8N TO 12N BETWEEN 34W AND 38W.
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W/53W SOUTH OF 14N
MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.
...THE ITCZ...
12N15W 10N29W 5N45W 10N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 16W AND
20W MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT WAVE NOT YET ON THE MAP
ANALYSIS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 39W
AND 51W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 56W AND 62W. ( here is the area of concerned i was talking about !) So if it's in the ITCZ that means very active ITCZ more to the north for a June month for this time, the itcz should be near Trinidad climatogically speaking for next month but sometimes as today it's pretty higher
...
AXNT20 KNHC 281805
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT JUN 28 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W/28W SOUTH OF 14N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING
WEST ABOUT 15 KT. SHOWERS FROM 8N TO 12N BETWEEN 34W AND 38W.
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W/53W SOUTH OF 14N
MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.
...THE ITCZ...
12N15W 10N29W 5N45W 10N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 16W AND
20W MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT WAVE NOT YET ON THE MAP
ANALYSIS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 39W
AND 51W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 56W AND 62W. ( here is the area of concerned i was talking about !) So if it's in the ITCZ that means very active ITCZ more to the north for a June month for this time, the itcz should be near Trinidad climatogically speaking for next month but sometimes as today it's pretty higher
...
0 likes
Re: Tropical Waves Between Lesser Antilles and West Africa
I could be wrong, but conditions look like they are favorable for keeping system's in curvature across the Atlantic but then breaking them up with normal June hostility when they reach the islands. Purely cosmetic.
0 likes
-
Fego
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 767
- Age: 65
- Joined: Sun Apr 18, 2004 7:58 pm
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
- Contact:
The 2:00 p.m. TWD is an excellent example of succinct and brief writing:
...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W/28W SOUTH OF 14N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST ABOUT 15 KT. SHOWERS FROM 8N TO 12N BETWEEN 34W AND 38W.
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W/53W SOUTH OF 14N MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W/28W SOUTH OF 14N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST ABOUT 15 KT. SHOWERS FROM 8N TO 12N BETWEEN 34W AND 38W.
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W/53W SOUTH OF 14N MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.
0 likes
-
HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT JUN 28 2008
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE
WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ WITH LITTLE SIGNIFICANT
DEEP CONVECTION. ONLY A SMALL CLUSTER OF SCATTERED SHOWERS IS
FROM 9N-10N BETWEEN 27W AND THE WAVE AXIS.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W/39W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. A
BROAD AREA OF LOW-MID LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 33W-40W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALSO SEEN IN THIS REGION.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W S OF 12N MOVING W 15-20 KT. A
LOW-AMPLITUDE INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS WAVE.
A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 69W FROM
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO VENEZUELA. SWLY FLOW AND DIVERGENCE
ALOFT IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EAST OF THE
WAVE AXIS AND OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE FAR SW POTION OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
ALONG 96W/97W S OF 21N. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE IS
BEGINNING TO DISPERSE UNDER STRONG SHEAR ALOFT. ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION NOW LIES MAINLY OVER THE E PACIFIC...HOWEVER...A
CLUSTER OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS ALONG
THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM 19N-23N. PLEASE SEE THE EASTERN PACIFIC
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...TWDEP...FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON
THIS WAVE.
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT JUN 28 2008
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE
WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ WITH LITTLE SIGNIFICANT
DEEP CONVECTION. ONLY A SMALL CLUSTER OF SCATTERED SHOWERS IS
FROM 9N-10N BETWEEN 27W AND THE WAVE AXIS.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W/39W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. A
BROAD AREA OF LOW-MID LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 33W-40W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALSO SEEN IN THIS REGION.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W S OF 12N MOVING W 15-20 KT. A
LOW-AMPLITUDE INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS WAVE.
A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 69W FROM
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO VENEZUELA. SWLY FLOW AND DIVERGENCE
ALOFT IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EAST OF THE
WAVE AXIS AND OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE FAR SW POTION OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
ALONG 96W/97W S OF 21N. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE IS
BEGINNING TO DISPERSE UNDER STRONG SHEAR ALOFT. ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION NOW LIES MAINLY OVER THE E PACIFIC...HOWEVER...A
CLUSTER OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS ALONG
THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM 19N-23N. PLEASE SEE THE EASTERN PACIFIC
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...TWDEP...FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON
THIS WAVE.
0 likes
-
Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
000
AXNT20 KNHC 290552
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W S OF 12N MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT.
THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ WITH LITTLE
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION. ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 4N-6N
BETWEEN 27W AND THE WAVE AXIS.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT. A
BROAD AREA OF LOW-MID LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 35W-40W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 200 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W S OF 12N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. A
LOW-AMPLITUDE INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N WITHIN 200
NM E OF THE WAVE AXIS. THIS CONVECTION IS LIKELY EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE ITCZ.
...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 8N29W 9N32W 8N38W 7N40W
5N45W 7N54W AND INTO S AMERICA NEAR 6N57W. IN ADDITION TO
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF A LINE FROM 10N18W TO 5N29W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 38W-42W. ALSO SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE
AXIS BETWEEN 49W-54W.
AXNT20 KNHC 290552
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W S OF 12N MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT.
THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ WITH LITTLE
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION. ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 4N-6N
BETWEEN 27W AND THE WAVE AXIS.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT. A
BROAD AREA OF LOW-MID LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 35W-40W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 200 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W S OF 12N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. A
LOW-AMPLITUDE INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N WITHIN 200
NM E OF THE WAVE AXIS. THIS CONVECTION IS LIKELY EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE ITCZ.
...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 8N29W 9N32W 8N38W 7N40W
5N45W 7N54W AND INTO S AMERICA NEAR 6N57W. IN ADDITION TO
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF A LINE FROM 10N18W TO 5N29W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 38W-42W. ALSO SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE
AXIS BETWEEN 49W-54W.
0 likes
-
Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
000
AXNT20 KNHC 291055
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W/31W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR 10-15
KT. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ WITH NO ORGANIZED
DEEP CONVECTION IS OBSERVED.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT. A
BROAD AREA OF LOW-MID LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 36W-41W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 36W-45W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W S OF 12N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. A
LOW-AMPLITUDE INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN
52W-58W. THIS CONVECTION IS LIKELY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ.
IN ADDITION TO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL
WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
MOVING OFF THE W AFRICA COAST FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 5W-16W. ( maybe the famous player that the models want to develop
matter of time...wait and see what pan's out
AXNT20 KNHC 291055
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W/31W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR 10-15
KT. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ WITH NO ORGANIZED
DEEP CONVECTION IS OBSERVED.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT. A
BROAD AREA OF LOW-MID LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 36W-41W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 36W-45W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W S OF 12N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. A
LOW-AMPLITUDE INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN
52W-58W. THIS CONVECTION IS LIKELY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ.
IN ADDITION TO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL
WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
MOVING OFF THE W AFRICA COAST FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 5W-16W. ( maybe the famous player that the models want to develop
matter of time...wait and see what pan's out
0 likes
Re: Tropical Waves Between Lesser Antilles and West Africa
I think the Puerto Rican flare-up is shear related.
0 likes
-
Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
000
AXNT20 KNHC 300554
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W/35W S OF 12N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE
WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ WITH SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 32W-35W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W S OF 14N MOVING W 10-15 KT. A
LOW-AMPLITUDE INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
FROM 8N-11N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN
43W-46W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 61W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. THE
POSITION OF THE AXIS IS BASED ON CONTINUITY.
...ITCZ...
IN ADDITION TO ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 10W-18W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF A LINE FROM 11N21W TO 7N32W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 40W-43W.
AXNT20 KNHC 300554
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W/35W S OF 12N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE
WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ WITH SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 32W-35W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W S OF 14N MOVING W 10-15 KT. A
LOW-AMPLITUDE INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
FROM 8N-11N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN
43W-46W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 61W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. THE
POSITION OF THE AXIS IS BASED ON CONTINUITY.
...ITCZ...
IN ADDITION TO ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 10W-18W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF A LINE FROM 11N21W TO 7N32W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 40W-43W.
0 likes
-
knotimpaired
- Category 1
- Posts: 495
- Joined: Fri May 20, 2005 4:14 am
- Location: Vieques, PR
- Contact:
000
FXCA62 TJSJ 300856
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
456 AM AST MON JUN 30 2008
.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A BREEZY EAST NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WIND
FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A LARGE MASS
OF HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...BRINGING VARIABLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS PUERTO RICO
AND THE US VI TODAY. IN ADDITION...SOME HAZE CAN BE EXPECTED IN
SAL MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...BUT AS MENTIONED IN PRIOR
AFD...THIS HAZE SHOULD THIN OUT LATER IN THE DAY AS A MORE
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL BRING CLEANER MID LATITUDE AIR ACROSS
THE ISLANDS BY THIS EVENING. FOR TODAY...EXPECT VERY DRY AIR
ACROSS THE REGION TO RESULT IN LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS...WITH A DIURNALLY INDUCED SHOWER OR TWO EXPECT TO
DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR. WITH A MORE
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW TONIGHT...EXPECT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH COAST OF PR AND THE US VI OVERNIGHT.
THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WAVE EXPECTED TO BRING AN INCREASE
IN WEATHER ACROSS THE ISLANDS IS CURRENTLY EXITING THE EAST COAST
OF AFRICA...AND IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL AREA OVER THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WAVE IS BEING FOLLOW BY A SECOND...WELL
ORGANIZED WAVE...THAT GFS BRINGS NEAR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEXT
MONDAY. OVERALL...PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS IN LINE WITH LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE...SO ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO INHERITED
FORECAST PACKAGE THIS MORNING.
FXCA62 TJSJ 300856
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
456 AM AST MON JUN 30 2008
.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A BREEZY EAST NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WIND
FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A LARGE MASS
OF HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...BRINGING VARIABLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS PUERTO RICO
AND THE US VI TODAY. IN ADDITION...SOME HAZE CAN BE EXPECTED IN
SAL MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...BUT AS MENTIONED IN PRIOR
AFD...THIS HAZE SHOULD THIN OUT LATER IN THE DAY AS A MORE
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL BRING CLEANER MID LATITUDE AIR ACROSS
THE ISLANDS BY THIS EVENING. FOR TODAY...EXPECT VERY DRY AIR
ACROSS THE REGION TO RESULT IN LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS...WITH A DIURNALLY INDUCED SHOWER OR TWO EXPECT TO
DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR. WITH A MORE
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW TONIGHT...EXPECT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH COAST OF PR AND THE US VI OVERNIGHT.
THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WAVE EXPECTED TO BRING AN INCREASE
IN WEATHER ACROSS THE ISLANDS IS CURRENTLY EXITING THE EAST COAST
OF AFRICA...AND IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL AREA OVER THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WAVE IS BEING FOLLOW BY A SECOND...WELL
ORGANIZED WAVE...THAT GFS BRINGS NEAR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEXT
MONDAY. OVERALL...PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS IN LINE WITH LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE...SO ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO INHERITED
FORECAST PACKAGE THIS MORNING.
0 likes
-
Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
Re:
knotimpaired wrote:000
FXCA62 TJSJ 300856
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
456 AM AST MON JUN 30 2008
.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A BREEZY EAST NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WIND
FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A LARGE MASS
OF HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...BRINGING VARIABLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS PUERTO RICO
AND THE US VI TODAY. IN ADDITION...SOME HAZE CAN BE EXPECTED IN
SAL MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...BUT AS MENTIONED IN PRIOR
AFD...THIS HAZE SHOULD THIN OUT LATER IN THE DAY AS A MORE
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL BRING CLEANER MID LATITUDE AIR ACROSS
THE ISLANDS BY THIS EVENING. FOR TODAY...EXPECT VERY DRY AIR
ACROSS THE REGION TO RESULT IN LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS...WITH A DIURNALLY INDUCED SHOWER OR TWO EXPECT TO
DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR. WITH A MORE
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW TONIGHT...EXPECT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH COAST OF PR AND THE US VI OVERNIGHT.
THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WAVE EXPECTED TO BRING AN INCREASE
IN WEATHER ACROSS THE ISLANDS IS CURRENTLY EXITING THE EAST COAST
OF AFRICA...AND IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL AREA OVER THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WAVE IS BEING FOLLOW BY A SECOND...WELL
ORGANIZED WAVE...THAT GFS BRINGS NEAR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEXT
MONDAY. OVERALL...PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS IN LINE WITH LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE...SO ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO INHERITED
FORECAST PACKAGE THIS MORNING.
Hi my friend from the north knotimpaired
, hey tkanks for the info, very interresting paragrah, seems that organized waves are in tape... something to watch
0 likes