Global Model Runs for W.Caribbean Early Season Development

#681 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon May 26, 2008 4:42 pm

18z GFS at 18 Hours 1007 mb low near north coast of Costa Rica.

Cyclone1 · #682 Postby **Cyclone1** » Mon May 26, 2008 4:42 pm

So... it's gone from a low in 48 hrs to a low at initiation?

Aric Dunn · #683 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Mon May 26, 2008 4:42 pm

lots of convergence going on down there...and vorticity is on the rise...

MiamiensisWx · #684 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Mon May 26, 2008 4:43 pm

Real development does not occur until 36 hours, when the upper level anticyclone with anticyclonic flow begins to establish over the area.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_500_036l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_036l.gif

Low level ridge at 850 mb:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_850_036l.gif

#685 Postby **RL3AO** » Mon May 26, 2008 4:44 pm

I'm pulling for it! I want to see $4.00 gas before it peaks for the summer!

MiamiensisWx · #686 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Mon May 26, 2008 4:45 pm

RL3AO wrote:I'm pulling for it! I want to see $4.00 gas before it peaks for the summer!

No...

KWT · #687 Postby **KWT** » Mon May 26, 2008 4:45 pm

There certainly is improving conditions presently in that far SW spot of the Caribbean, the fact that convergence is on the rise doesn't suprise me given the convection that has formed over the past 12hrs down there. IF it carries on then we could well see an invest for this region...may also see an invest for the EPAC convection as well if any type of circulation becomes evident.

The key is to see what the GFS does after 72hrs IMO.

MiamiensisWx · #688 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Mon May 26, 2008 4:47 pm

48 hours indicates a well defined surface low that is nearly stationary and slowly deepening.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_048l.gif

Semi-conducive upper level wind vectors support very modest development.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_500_048l.gif

#689 Postby **tgenius** » Mon May 26, 2008 4:47 pm

RL3AO wrote:I'm pulling for it! I want to see $4.00 gas before it peaks for the summer!

Don't know about things in Minnesota, but in Miami gas is ALREADY at 4 bucks.. a cane will push it to 5+!

Eyewall · #690 Postby **Eyewall** » Mon May 26, 2008 4:49 pm

1007 Ml low just north of panama in 48 hours.

jaxfladude · #691 Postby **jaxfladude** » Mon May 26, 2008 4:50 pm

Bad news if a nasty storm comes about in the Atlantic Basin....

MiamiensisWx · #692 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Mon May 26, 2008 4:51 pm

Deepening trend commences.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_060l.gif

250 mb environment is more favorable with better positioning of upper ridge.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_250_060l.gif

#693 Postby **Vortex** » Mon May 26, 2008 4:52 pm

H+60 Deepening slightly just east of nicaragua

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_060l.gif

#694 Postby **Vortex** » Mon May 26, 2008 4:53 pm

MiamiensisWx wrote:Deepening trend commences.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_060l.gif

250 mb environment is more favorable with better positioning of upper ridge.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_250_060l.gif

Nice divergence..should generate very deep convection with that set-up at H+60

KWT · #695 Postby **KWT** » Mon May 26, 2008 4:55 pm

Yep thats true Vortex, should imagine if there is a developing LLC present which there probably will be if the GFS is right you'd probably see the system develop hefty convection on that eastern side though I do think land interaction wouldd slow any development that would occur down somewhat.

You know hurricane season is near when you have a thread that is nearly 700 posts long about something that hasn't even formed yet!

#696 Postby **Vortex** » Mon May 26, 2008 4:56 pm

Ridge and location of low on this run may take it inland for a day or so before exiting N coast of Honduras

#697 Postby **RL3AO** » Mon May 26, 2008 4:58 pm

tgenius wrote:
RL3AO wrote:I'm pulling for it! I want to see $4.00 gas before it peaks for the summer!

Don't know about things in Minnesota, but in Miami gas is ALREADY at 4 bucks.. a cane will push it to 5+!

3.83 here.

#698 Postby **Vortex** » Mon May 26, 2008 4:59 pm

H+72 Over or Just East of Nic.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_072l.gif

MiamiensisWx · #699 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Mon May 26, 2008 5:01 pm

Mean ridge position brings the vorticity inland.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_500_072l.gif

#700 Postby **Vortex** » Mon May 26, 2008 5:02 pm

H+90 Inland

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_090l.gif

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