2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)

[Eric Webb]

You can get the hint that the 3 sigma CCKW passing over the Atlantic has reached west Africa.




On a somewhat related note, I really like this vertical cross section forecast plot from wxnerds. You can see the CCKW influence helping to moisten the MDR for the first few days of the forecast period then a subsequent dry period once it passes and then moistening near the level of the AEJ (~600-700 hPa) as AEWs triggered by the CCKW propagate into the Atlantic the following week.

Wow is that top image accurate or something wrong with the satellite? I don't know that I've ever seen that much convection over Africa like that lol.

West Africa is near the edge of the of the GOES-16 satellite's field of view and thus will appear smeared and what you're also seeing is a parallax error wherein the shape, orientation, and position of an object may be misplaced or skewed when viewed not from directly above as in the case of GOES-16.

[Kingarabian]

That'll bring me to the same question as the prior poster. What is causing then of the recent drop? Perhaps erroneous satellite data?

It's possible there's some error in data assimilation or noisy satellite data (data assimilation is in the CDAS acronym after all), I just have a hard time believing the MDR could have cooled almost 1C with near average trades and relatively more modest SAL in just a matter of a few days, the cumulative effect of stronger trades in July, a cold subsurface, and some SAL when the MDR is already cold certainly doesn't help and could explain some of this drop but it's so extreme in such a short period of time I'm personally skeptical it's actually real.

[img]https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/mdrssta.png[/
img]


[img]http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/timeLon/u.anom.30.10N-20N.gif[/ig]

We've dealt with erroneous CDAS data before in the ENSO thread. Itll likely adjust back up in a day or so when it re-adjusts. Too bad we dont have buoys in the ATL MDR to see what's really going like we do in the Pacific.

[NotSparta]

That'll bring me to the same question as the prior poster. What is causing then of the recent drop? Perhaps erroneous satellite data?

It's possible there's some error in data assimilation or noisy satellite data (data assimilation is in the CDAS acronym after all), I just have a hard time believing the MDR could have cooled almost 1C with near average trades and relatively more modest SAL in just a matter of a few days, the cumulative effect of stronger trades in July, a cold subsurface, and some SAL when the MDR is already cold certainly doesn't help and could explain some of this drop but it's so extreme in such a short period of time I'm personally skeptical it's actually real.

[img]https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/mdrssta.png[/
img]


[img]http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/timeLon/u.anom.30.10N-20N.gif[/ig]

We've dealt with erroneous CDAS data before in the ENSO thread. Itll likely adjust back up in a day or so when it re-adjusts. Too bad we dont have buoys in the ATL MDR to see what's really going like we do in the Pacific.

There are buoys there, but no maps

[Kingarabian]

It's possible there's some error in data assimilation or noisy satellite data (data assimilation is in the CDAS acronym after all), I just have a hard time believing the MDR could have cooled almost 1C with near average trades and relatively more modest SAL in just a matter of a few days, the cumulative effect of stronger trades in July, a cold subsurface, and some SAL when the MDR is already cold certainly doesn't help and could explain some of this drop but it's so extreme in such a short period of time I'm personally skeptical it's actually real.

[img]https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/mdrssta.png[/
img]


[img]http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/timeLon/u.anom.30.10N-20N.gif[/ig]

We've dealt with erroneous CDAS data before in the ENSO thread. Itll likely adjust back up in a day or so when it re-adjusts. Too bad we dont have buoys in the ATL MDR to see what's really going like we do in the Pacific.

There are buoys there, but no maps

Do the buoys send out data? If so, we can plot the data ourselves if we can get the outputs.

[NotSparta]

We've dealt with erroneous CDAS data before in the ENSO thread. Itll likely adjust back up in a day or so when it re-adjusts. Too bad we dont have buoys in the ATL MDR to see what's really going like we do in the Pacific.

There are buoys there, but no maps

Do the buoys send out data? If so, we can plot the data ourselves if we can get the outputs.

I think they're in the same site that has the Pacific buoys, under the "PIRATA" tab. Data can be spotty though

[Kingarabian]

There are buoys there, but no maps

Do the buoys send out data? If so, we can plot the data ourselves if we can get the outputs.

I think they're in the same site that has the Pacific buoys, under the "PIRATA" tab. Data can be spotty though

Just ran through it. Very little buoy data as I was thinking. Just a few locations @ 23W from 0-20N. Oh well.

[JPmia]

Anyone want to start focusing in on predictions for coastal target areas now that we're getting closer to the busy part of the hurricane season? Steering, TUTTs, Areas of Low Shear, ridges, fronts, etc.. what coastal areas have the highest probability of a hit?

[Ian2401]

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1022210803431366657

[stormlover2013]

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/High- ... ent-Eddies

[chaser1]

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/High-Octane-Hurricane-Fuel-Gulf-Mexico-2-Loop-Current-Eddies

Not sure if others are having similar difficulties but this link keeps coming back as a "dead link".

[TheStormExpert]

The NAO may finally go negative in the next 6-10 days according to the Euro Ensembles.

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1022469761559658497

[SoupBone]

The NAO may finally go negative in the next 6-10 days according to the Euro Ensembles.

Well this would be crap during peak season, but great for a cold winter for the south (if it hung around). Less recurves and a much greater Gulf Coast threat.

EDIT: Wait, do i have this reversed? - Nao usually means less recurves? I really need a layman's course on the NAO. I thought a - NAO meant a more sprawled out Bermuda High, meaning more ridge coverage closer to the U.S. meaning less chance of a recurve.

[CyclonicFury]

Today's NOAA/NESDIS SST anomaly map was released. Although it does have a warm bias in the MDR, it shows little change in MDR SSTA within the past 3 days when the CDAS data showed rapid cooling. The rate of cooling in the MDR on CDAS was likely extreme & inaccurate.

[NDG]

The NAO may finally go negative in the next 6-10 days according to the Euro Ensembles.

Well this would be crap during peak season, but great for a cold winter for the south (if it hung around). Less recurves and a much greater Gulf Coast threat.

EDIT: Wait, do i have this reversed? - Nao usually means less recurves? I really need a layman's course on the NAO. I thought a - NAO meant a more sprawled out Bermuda High, meaning more ridge coverage closer to the U.S. meaning less chance of a recurve.

You have it reversed but for the past few weeks the models have been wishcasting the NAO to go negative to go only near neutral to go back to positive right away, I will believe them when I see the NAO actually go negative.

[NDG]

Windshear across the NW Caribbean has really gone down this week, overall now near average across the Caribbean.

[CyclonicFury]

Windshear across the NW Caribbean has really gone down this week, overall now near average across the Caribbean.

Not looking very El Niño like out there yet. However, the cooler than normal MDR SSTs (though likely warmer than what CDAS is suggesting), along with dry air, should limit this season from being too active. You should not get complacent though in any season.

[Kingarabian]

Windshear across the NW Caribbean has really gone down this week, overall now near average across the Caribbean.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/Bgi43Jn.gif[img]

I think the W-Caribbean and the GOM will continue to have favorable upper level conditions. But there will be some saving grace this season, due to the E-Caribbean having high shear and also MDR conditions remaining poor as CycloneFury mentioned.

[TheStormExpert]

Windshear across the NW Caribbean has really gone down this week, overall now near average across the Caribbean.

https://i.imgur.com/Bgi43Jn.gif

It’s hard to believe that there would even be high shear in the Caribbean in the first place with no definite El Niño and a quiet and hostile East Pacific.

[TheStormExpert]

Windshear across the NW Caribbean has really gone down this week, overall now near average across the Caribbean.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/Bgi43Jn.gif[img]

I think the W-Caribbean and the GOM will continue to have favorable upper level conditions. But there will be some saving grace this season, due to the E-Caribbean having high shear and also MDR conditions remaining poor as CycloneFury mentioned.

Yeah it’s going to be tough for any wave to make it past those hostile conditions alive. But don’t be fooled!

[gatorcane]

Today's SST anomaly maps shows a swath of above normal SSTs from Africa through the deep MDR all the way through the Lesser Antilles and to the Bahamas/Florida with a cooler than normal subtropical Atlantic and much above normal northern Atlantic. This configuration is more conducive for Cape Verde activity than what we were seeing months ago.

Also NW Caribbean and southern GOM are much above normal now compared to months ago: