Tropical Wave over the SE Bahamas (Is INVEST 91L)

[Siker]

00z CMC develops this for the first time, as a TD in the Florida Straits.

[wxman22]

Yep, it has it as a strong Tropical Storm/Hurricane heading Towards the middle Texas coast

[Steve]

That’s much farther south of a track than EC or gfs has shown in a while. However, GFS through 114 hours is a bit flatter of an angle and heads a little farther west for landfall in Louisiana - toward Grand Isle instead of St. Bernard or Plaquemines parishes. The ridge is stronger and even eventually links up across the country. I think this would lend more credence to the ECMWF’s more western solution across south central and sw Texas because there’s no getting out on this run like it showed at 18z.

^^^ so that’s wrong. Through 138, it’s up near SE OK again. Surprised what it’s doing at the surface considering the pattern it is showing at 500mb which would make that almost impossible unless a piece sheared off which the GFs does not show. Interesting run so far but looks like the physics are questionable. There is a front not too far to the north. So either the mid or upper level piece goes that way and the low Center travels west (which again it doesn’t show) or it’s wrong.

[Siker]

00z UKMET develops this on its way to Texas. Wish I had state lines and a better color scale but oh well.

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 28.6N 94.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 06.09.2018 120 28.2N 94.4W 1008 29
1200UTC 06.09.2018 132 28.3N 95.7W 1006 32
0000UTC 07.09.2018 144 27.3N 97.1W 1002 35

[Steve]

Note the south of west bend in the UKMET track. That follows the European at 12z but is much farther south (taking the Gulf route instead of an inland route).

Early hint might be that the ridge in the eastern US (with reinforcing pulses coming in off the Atlantic) must be coming in stronger. I wonder if the European will nudge farther south on the 00z track?

[stormlover2013]

Icon model shows same thing

[MississippiWx]

As several of us have been stating, a further south track allows more time over water. Thus, a stronger storm. The CMC is interesting because it develops it in the Straits. If that becomes a trend that could become a problem. The models are certainly latching onto the more favorable Gulf conditions and a stronger disturbance on approach to Florida.

[Steve]

Agreed MS. The European has been fairly consistent, but if it also comes in farther south this run, it’s going to be about the ridge building in stronger. (12z EC was a similar track but a few hundred miles farther north than the 00z CMC). I wasn’t going to stay up but it’s nice on the porch. We have those tiny tropical raindrops you get sometimes and some lightning off in the distance.

[MississippiWx]

It probably doesn't mean much, but the wave is starting to come into range of our hi-res models. The 00z RGEM develops this into a tropical storm before it even reaches the Florida Straits.

[Steve]

I ran it, but you’d think that’s suspect. It’s counter to everything else so far. But if it were for some reason to be right and down to 1004 and intensifying as its passing just under or along the tip of Florida, we’ve all got a bigger problem. As per earlier, a hit on LA was 28-30 hours after crossing south Florida. So there wasn’t much time to get to anything beyond a minimal TS. But if it’s already that a couple days in advance, that’s a potentially much stronger system for here and possibly a hurricane if it stayed south of Louisiana and headed toward Texas. Again, I’m not buying it but...

[MississippiWx]

0z NAVGEM with its strongest run in a while as well. Has a TD or low-end tropical storm across the Northern Gulf. Basically every model has a bonafide tropical cyclone now. The differences lie in the strength because of just how far south it manages to consolidate.

[Hurricaneman]

Looking at it currently the shear is coming down and may be low within the next 24 hrs and wouldn’t be surprised if we have an invest by tomorrow night or sunday

[HurricaneBrain]

If this wave can make it through the straits with no land interaction we might be looking at a moderate TS threat in central GOM by Wednesday.

[MississippiWx]

There is a very obvious spin to the clouds now with a nice 850mb vort representation on CIMSS maps.

[Cpv17]

We’ll see what King Euro has to say in a few minutes lol

[SoupBone]

Still 20%

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Sep 1 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Six, located about a hundred miles west-southwest of the
Cabo Verde Islands.

A tropical wave interacting with an upper-level trough is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms from Hispaniola northward
across the Turks and Caicos Islands. This activity is forecast to
spread west-northwestward, enhancing rainfall across portions of
Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, Florida, and
the northern Gulf of Mexico coast through the middle of next week.
Strong upper-level winds are expected to prevent development of this
system during the next couple of days, but environmental conditions
could become less hostile when the system moves across the northern
Gulf of Mexico during the early to middle part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[Cpv17]

Western Gulf is definitely not out of the question.

[MississippiWx]

Euro coming in stronger at 48 hours.

[Cpv17]

Euro coming in stronger at 48 hours.

Quite a bit stronger. Looks like it wants to brush S Florida as a depression or weak ts.

[MississippiWx]

At 72 hours, 0z Euro has a tropical storm off the West Coast of Florida.