Tropical Wave has emerged from West Africa (Is Invest 95L)

[us89]

This track seems like a combination of David, Matthew, and Dorian ... three hurricanes I'd rather not be comparing a future storm to.

[gatorcane]

Now we just need to see if the ECMWF, the CMC, the UKMET do something similar to the GFS. Basically the rest of the global models. The GFS is alone right now. Would like to see a GFS parallel run also.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

What's interesting to me is that we have zero consensus among any models. Usually, we have a few models in one camp and others in an entirely different one.

The GFS, CMC, and Euro runs don't even look remotely similar to one another.

[SFLcane]

Does this look familiar? I think we just saw this at 18z.

https://i.imgur.com/BFbunze.png

Yes sir!

[SFLcane]

[Aric Dunn]

Now we just need to see if the ECMWF, the CMC, the UKMET do something similar to the GFS. Basically the rest of the global models. The GFS is alone right now.

not through the important 72hrs.. they are all similar.


the rest is just entertaining.

[TheStormExpert]

Does this look familiar? I think we just saw this at 18z.

https://i.imgur.com/BFbunze.png

Similar to David only it gives every coastal SE U.S. city or town a scare will missing a landfall.

[RL3AO]

This thread seems different than 24 hours ago.

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave is located a few hundred miles southeast of the
Cabo Verde Islands and is producing a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is
forecast, and a tropical depression is expected to form within the
next few days while the system moves generally westward across the
eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[gatorcane]

[cycloneye]

This thread seems different than 24 hours ago.

We need the invest to lock this one.

[aspen]

700 posts for a wave that isn’t even an invest yet. This has got to be a record for s2k.

[Shell Mound]

:eek:

https://i.postimg.cc/HktX81ZS/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-atl-fh78-240.gif

Note that the strongest members are quite close to the strongest EPS clusters and take the system to the east of the Bahamas.

[us89]

There is no way this isn't an invest with the 00z best track update.

[toad strangler]

For the Florida peninsula a threat coming from the south is not the same as coming from the East. Trap door may not save you.

Long time to go.

I live 25 min from the NHC I am going personally if this isn’t tagged soon. lol

I agree on the approach from the S part but verbatim this is not a approach from S but the SE. Huge difference. It's the approach from the SSW or SW that trap doors won't save you but will actually hurt you. With this 18zGFS angle (and this is JUST FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES, NOT THAT I BELIEVE IT) the trap door will still save the day.

This is a great example of why FL will always be a top 'cane prone area even though much of the peninsula has been spared since 2005. The peninsula can get hit from almost every direction. No disrespect to Irma meant. Irma hit SW FL and the Keys very hard.

[SFLcane]

For the Florida peninsula a threat coming from the south is not the same as coming from the East. Trap door may not save you.

Long time to go.

I live 25 min from the NHC I am going personally if this isn’t tagged soon. lol

I agree on the approach from the S part but verbatim this is not a approach from S but the SE. Huge difference. It's the approach from the SSW or SW that trap doors won't save you but will actually hurt you. With this 18zGFS angle (and this is JUST FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES, NOT THAT I BELIEVE IT) the trap door will still save the day.

This!

[ConvergenceZone]

An Invest will pop tonight, otherwise, there imust be a technical glitch

[cycloneye]

Invest 95L is up