2025 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

[chaser1]

In other words, if a wave gets into Western Caribbean like the 0z Euro and 6z GFS show... Watch out.

Could be a Mitch redux?

[galaxy401]

The Caribbean has been dead due to how active the EPAC has been consistently. The storms over there pushes all the wind shear over the Caribbean.

This feels right, but shear over the Caribbean has been below average almost all season. Part of the issue seems to be a lack of tropical waves. Andy Hazleton has talked about this a few times. The waves either develop too early, are pulled north, or get desiccated by SAL before arriving. It’s just that the very few solid waves to track through the Caribbean have lined up with shear from the EPAC or dry conditions. So ‘bad luck’ (good luck?) has played a part.

Only question I have regarding that is the EPAC itself. The majority of storms that form in that basin originate from tropical waves. Considering the high number of storms there, that seems to imply there were many tropical waves that made it there. Most of these must have failed to develop in the Atlantic.

If there weren't a lot of tropical waves, then shouldn't there be less storms to form in the EPAC? Probably more reasons for that but it's just a surface-level observation.