TS Irene=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[WeatherEmperor]

anyone have this mornings 12Z model runs? They are a bit late dont you think which could mean one of a few things....

<RICKY>

[storms in NC]

And what would that be? A open wave?

[WeatherEmperor]

And what would that be? A open wave?

your guess is as good as mine. maybe they just took a coffee break. I remember another instance when this happened before with some Invest out in the Atlantic and it was because the system was no more. Im not sure if the same will apply here though.

<RICKY>

[Coredesat]

As of 9:05 AM EDT, only the GFDL's been run. This image will eventually be replaced when the rest are run.

[WeatherEmperor]

I know TeamRagnarok. Its just that the other models on that website are usually finished running by this time. I guess I already know what this means but Im just making sure.

<RICKY>

[Gorky]

I kinda fear this disorganising into a wave, as I think if it does this, it has the most potential to do some damage in the future. It's ironic that if it strengthened, it would be swept north a lot sooner, but several models are now starting to indicate an east coast threat. GFDL, which has been dissipating this storm later today for the past 2 days, shows a SSW movement towards the end of its run. BAM shows constant W-WNW movement all the way towards Florida, A98E is similar but a bit north, and ECMFW is showing a South Carolina hit. UKMET has it stalling around Bermuda and where it goes after is open to interpretation. The MM5 recurves it but also brings it to major hurricane within days so it's safe to ignore that completely. It seems strange but the NHC advisory is the easerly outlier, with exception to the UKMET which stalls it anyway.

It will be interesting to follow this over the next few days. It maybe that it does keep going west but never reorganises due to atmospheric conditions, but if they ease, it could be more serious once it reaches the 70W mark and has nothing but 29c+ temperatures. Certainly something to keep an eye on and not write off write now.

[Coredesat]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

I don't think this thing's dissipated yet. I can still make out a circulation at around 22N 53W, which is close to where the SSD plotted it at.

Even if it does open up into a wave, I imagine that'd only make it more likely to miss the weakness in the ridge and send it WNW-ward into a more favorable environment.

[WeatherEmperor]

I am tempted to say the same. I really dont know for sure. I would like to have more visible imagery before I can really say whats down there and not.

<RICKY>

[rockyman]

Chad...the weatherperson from CNN...just said that 5 of the computer models turn it (Irene) to the left and strengthen it.

[gatorcane]

has the image updated yet?

[Thunder44]

724
WHXX01 KWBC 091308
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE (AL092005) ON 20050809 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050809 1200 050810 0000 050810 1200 050811 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 22.2N 53.4W 22.3N 55.0W 22.5N 56.9W 23.1N 59.0W
BAMM 22.2N 53.4W 22.3N 55.3W 22.5N 57.5W 23.0N 59.8W
A98E 22.2N 53.4W 22.2N 55.0W 22.5N 56.9W 23.2N 58.9W
LBAR 22.2N 53.4W 22.3N 55.1W 22.9N 57.2W 23.6N 59.5W
SHIP 30KTS 33KTS 38KTS 43KTS
DSHP 30KTS 33KTS 38KTS 43KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050811 1200 050812 1200 050813 1200 050814 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 23.8N 61.0W 25.7N 64.9W 26.7N 67.6W 26.9N 70.6W
BAMM 23.6N 62.0W 24.8N 66.4W 25.4N 69.8W 25.6N 72.9W
A98E 24.3N 61.1W 25.7N 64.9W 26.8N 67.7W 27.0N 70.0W
LBAR 24.4N 61.9W 26.4N 65.7W 27.8N 67.9W 28.5N 69.6W
SHIP 48KTS 56KTS 61KTS 62KTS
DSHP 48KTS 56KTS 61KTS 62KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 22.2N LONCUR = 53.4W DIRCUR = 265DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 22.5N LONM12 = 52.0W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 22.2N LONM24 = 49.9W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 105NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[WeatherEmperor]

Chad...the weatherperson from CNN...just said that 5 of the computer models turn it (Irene) to the left and strengthen it.

really? I gotta meet this Chad. lol

<RICKY>

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE (AL092005) ON 20050809 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050809 1200 050810 0000 050810 1200 050811 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 22.2N 53.4W 22.3N 55.0W 22.5N 56.9W 23.1N 59.0W
BAMM 22.2N 53.4W 22.3N 55.3W 22.5N 57.5W 23.0N 59.8W
A98E 22.2N 53.4W 22.2N 55.0W 22.5N 56.9W 23.2N 58.9W
LBAR 22.2N 53.4W 22.3N 55.1W 22.9N 57.2W 23.6N 59.5W
SHIP 30KTS 33KTS 38KTS 43KTS
DSHP 30KTS 33KTS 38KTS 43KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050811 1200 050812 1200 050813 1200 050814 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 23.8N 61.0W 25.7N 64.9W 26.7N 67.6W 26.9N 70.6W
BAMM 23.6N 62.0W 24.8N 66.4W 25.4N 69.8W 25.6N 72.9W
A98E 24.3N 61.1W 25.7N 64.9W 26.8N 67.7W 27.0N 70.0W
LBAR 24.4N 61.9W 26.4N 65.7W 27.8N 67.9W 28.5N 69.6W
SHIP 48KTS 56KTS 61KTS 62KTS
DSHP 48KTS 56KTS 61KTS 62KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 22.2N LONCUR = 53.4W DIRCUR = 265DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 22.5N LONM12 = 52.0W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 22.2N LONM24 = 49.9W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 105NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

12:00z Models.

[WeatherEmperor]

Thank you Luis for putting me out of my misery. lol

<RICKY>

[BensonTCwatcher]

I keep trying to ignore this storm dangit but it looks like a new circulation is forming south of the old one. That would explain the pause and need to re-initialize for new data. Not looking like a re-curve/dissipating right now. looking like W to WNW and strengthening to me. I also don't like the other scenario...an almost recurve with a stall waiting for the ridge to build. That is worse...more time over warm water.

[Coredesat]

Models continue shifting to the left. If the models verify and the ridge does move westward, this could be bad news for the East Coast, as Irene could end up in a more favorable environment in a couple days.

[WeatherEmperor]

Models continue shifting to the left. If the models verify and the ridge does move westward, this could be bad news for the East Coast, as Irene could end up in a more favorable environment in a couple days.

yeah i know. now im waiting to see what the NHC has to say about this at 11am.

<RICKY>

[wxwatcher91]

a couple of 35kt flags showing up on the quikSCAT around 24N 52W

[WeatherEmperor]

but there is no circulatioin on that QSCAT image.

<RICKY>

[Scorpion]

Why do the models strengthen it if its being downgraded to a wave?