99L Invest,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[WeatherEmperor]

wow it doesnt look like the GFDL has much interest in 99L at the moment.

<RICKY>

[Stratosphere747]

Worst possible track of whatever it becomes, right thru the YC...

[hurricanefloyd5]

looks like these models are shifting more and more north? could this be in responce to a front? opinions!

yes it is IMHO but i would sit back and wait and see ok!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Brent]

so you don't think they will upgrade by 5?
did someone tell you they might?

LOL ... this is how rumors start.

My best friend's sister's boyfriend's brother's girlfriend heard from this guy who knows this kid who's going with the girl who saw Stacy Stewart say it would be a Category 5 at 31 Flavors last night. I guess it's pretty serious.

[JTD]

This thing doesn't even have a T number yet. "Too weak". Let's all calm down please.

[HurryKane]

so you don't think they will upgrade by 5?
did someone tell you they might?

LOL ... this is how rumors start.

My best friend's sister's boyfriend's brother's girlfriend heard from this guy who knows this kid who's going with the girl who saw Stacy Stewart say it would be a Category 5 at 31 Flavors last night. I guess it's pretty serious.

......lol what??

<RICKY>

Not a Ferris Bueller fan, eh?

[Brent]

This thing doesn't even have a T number yet. "Too weak". Let's all calm down please.

This reminds me of the 100 page thread on the Invest that later became Katrina. For days though it was a bunch of nothing.

[sponger]

I was thinking the same thing Brent. At least we had a mid level circulation to follow.



Save Ferris!

[Stratosphere747]

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.shtml


Looking at the latest loops, it appears as there is the definitive circulation beginning to take shape. There was a time that it was fun....Those days are long gone..

Scott

[WeatherEmperor]

it just looks to flare up and down, up and down. But then again Katrina and Rita did some of that as well and look what became of them.

<RICKY>

[Swimdude]

looks like these models are shifting more and more north? could this be in responce to a front? opinions!

Those models mean nothing right now. Ignore them. They're fun to look at, but they don't mean much... yet.

Haha amen! Those are all over the place!

[WeatherEmperor]

Yeah especially late in the season the tropical models are becoming more and more worthless. I just wanna see some more global model runs. gimme more!

<RICKY>

[O Town]

I have a quick question. How often do they update the wind stats? At the NRL site the only one they have is from yesterday.

[Weatherfreak14]

It looks like a TD now. Looks very organized to me.

[Brent]

5:30pm TWO:

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING
CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER JAMAICA... PORTIONS OF
HISPANIOLA... AND ADJACENT CARIBBEAN WATERS. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION... AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM TOMORROW... IF NECESSARY.
INTERESTS IN JAMAICA... THE CAYMAN ISLANDS... AND ELSEWHERE IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS... SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

[JTD]

5:30pm TWO:

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING
CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER JAMAICA... PORTIONS OF
HISPANIOLA... AND ADJACENT CARIBBEAN WATERS. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION... AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM TOMORROW... IF NECESSARY.
INTERESTS IN JAMAICA... THE CAYMAN ISLANDS... AND ELSEWHERE IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS... SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

Based on that, we'll have a T.D. as soon as Recon sends back a VDM tommorow. Here we go again.

Ships forecasting this to get to 91 kts certainly has my attention.

[baitism]

It does seem to be getting its act together looking at the last couple frames.

[WeatherEmperor]

5:30pm TWO:

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING
CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER JAMAICA... PORTIONS OF
HISPANIOLA... AND ADJACENT CARIBBEAN WATERS. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION... AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM TOMORROW... IF NECESSARY.
INTERESTS IN JAMAICA... THE CAYMAN ISLANDS... AND ELSEWHERE IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS... SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

Based on that, we'll have a T.D. as soon as Recon sends back a VDM tommorow. Here we go again.

Ships forecasting this to get to 91 kts certainly has my attention.

Doesnt the SHIPS always raise intensity too high?

<RICKY>

[JTD]

5:30pm TWO:

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING
CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER JAMAICA... PORTIONS OF
HISPANIOLA... AND ADJACENT CARIBBEAN WATERS. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION... AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM TOMORROW... IF NECESSARY.
INTERESTS IN JAMAICA... THE CAYMAN ISLANDS... AND ELSEWHERE IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS... SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

Based on that, we'll have a T.D. as soon as Recon sends back a VDM tommorow. Here we go again.

Ships forecasting this to get to 91 kts certainly has my attention.

Doesnt the SHIPS always raise intensity too high?

<RICKY>

SHIPS has been high on many a invest this year but in past years it has been accurate to be sure. Also, it did predict near major hurricane status for Both Katrina and Rita and turned out to be more than right.

It's more the GFDL though that tends to make everything a category 5 680 MB cane.

Back to the SHIPS model though. It is based off the GFS and what I extrapolate from that is that the environmental conditions will unfortunately be very good for the storm.

As an aside, it's hillarious. The day before Katrina hit ABC News had a story saying "A new experimental model called SHIPS predicts that this storm could rapidly intensify" Of course, it is neither new nor experimental. LOL.

[WeatherEmperor]

lol thats pretty funny. Yeah I forget that its usually the GFDL that over-intensifies systems so much. But yeah it needs to be watched though.

<RICKY>