ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[WeatherEmperor]

What are your thoughts on the PDO? If it stays positive it may not matter how much El Nino weakens in regards to atlantic activity right or no?

Sub-surface oceanic heat content is dropping fast in the Tropical Pacific. I think the CFSv2 forecast of strengthening El Nino into Oct/Nov is quite wrong.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Looks as if the latest pattern shift is due to the shift in in the pacific to a modiki nino. Playing out well. Goodbye El nino

[AJC3]

Looks as if the latest pattern shift is due to the shift in in the pacific to a modiki nino. Playing out well. Goodbye El nino

I'd be REALLY careful about throwing around the term "Modoki" like that. Of all the NINO regions, 1+2 has greatest SST(A) fluctuations (since greater and more frequent upwelling occurs closer to the SOAM coast), and quite often will assume a transient "Modoki-looking" configuration that doesn't persist. It did this very thing in early (JAN-FEB) 2015 and hordes of folks were chiming in about the pending Modoki. It turned out to last all of about two months before transitioning to more of a traditional configuration.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Looks as if the latest pattern shift is due to the shift in in the pacific to a modiki nino. Playing out well. Goodbye El nino

I'd be REALLY careful about throwing around the term "Modoki" like that. Of all the NINO regions, 1+2 has greatest SST(A) fluctuations (since greater and more frequent upwelling occurs closer to the SOAM coast), and quite often will assume a transient "Modoki-looking" configuration that doesn't persist. It did this very thing in early (JAN-FEB) 2015 and hordes of folks were chiming in about the pending Modoki. It turned out to last all of about two months before transitioning to more of a traditional configuration.

I was saying for the moment and not something that will happen for the long term.

[AJC3]

Looks as if the latest pattern shift is due to the shift in in the pacific to a modiki nino. Playing out well. Goodbye El nino

I'd be REALLY careful about throwing around the term "Modoki" like that. Of all the NINO regions, 1+2 has greatest SST(A) fluctuations (since greater and more frequent upwelling occurs closer to the SOAM coast), and quite often will assume a transient "Modoki-looking" configuration that doesn't persist. It did this very thing in early (JAN-FEB) 2015 and hordes of folks were chiming in about the pending Modoki. It turned out to last all of about two months before transitioning to more of a traditional configuration.

I was saying for the moment and not something that will happen for the long term.

Precisely my point. Then it's not a shift to a "Modoki Nino".

[cycloneye]

I hope this update to CFSv2 fixes the bias it has to extend El Nino thru most of 2016.

@RyanMaue EMC will restart CFSv2 ocean init on Monday at 06z to fix the anomalously cold Atlantic
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/tin16-09cfs.htm

@TropicalTidbits · 11m11 minutes ago

Levi Cowan Retweeted Ryan Maue

This is very good news. The powerpoint shows the corrected forecasts now develop La Nina this summer.

[cycloneye]

Good blog at WeatherUnderground by Dr Henson about the state of ENSO.

https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffM ... xperts-tel

[cycloneye]

CPC made this blog about El Nino response team that has collected plenty of data about ENSO.Below is excerpt from blog:

The ongoing El Niño of 2015-2016 is a historically strong event, the likes of which is only seen once or twice during a scientific career. Not wanting to let this opportunity pass by, scientists from NOAA and NASA have embarked on an unprecedented and exciting mission to observe this El Niño like no other El Niño has been observed before! From January to March 2016, scientists have been collecting data in a notoriously data-sparse region of the Pacific via Gulfstream jets, high-tech unmanned aircraft, ship cruises, weather balloon launches, and instruments dropped right out of aircraft. This effort is known as the El Niño Rapid Response campaign.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/b ... nd-sea-and

[Hurricaneman]

Is it me or is the PDO going into a quick decline, looks like it to me looking at the SSTAs declining around Alaska and the NW coast which may bring a whole new set of challenges for the hurricane season

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[Yellow Evan]

Is it me or is the PDO going into a quick decline, looks like it to me looking at the SSTAs declining around Alaska and the NW coast which may bring a whole new set of challenges for the hurricane season

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

It always seems to go up and down but stay +PDO. I would not read too deeply into daily SST changes.

[Darvince]

The PDO weakening would involve the SSTAs in the region 170-150W and 30N-50N warming up and the warm anomalies dissipating. The warm anomalies are remaining but have been pushed more into the coast, indicating that the cold anomalies originating from that area are strengthening, so probably PDO becoming even stronger once the warm anomalies off the North American coast catch up.

[Ntxw]

Actually it is very +PDO still. A -PDO would nearly be the exact opposite of what is going on now with cold waters tucked up along the coast of North America and warm water building south of the Aleutians. And even if the switch did happen (no guidance is showing it for 2016) it would be a slow, long process as the PDO really is a multiyear event. We would need to string together negative values for many many months to consider it a transition. It's not coincidence one of the strongest Nino's just happened with a very strong +PDO

left is +PDO, right is -PDO


As you can see SST's currently resembles top left more than it does the right in the NPAC

[cycloneye]

CPC 3/28/16 update has Nino 3.4 down to +1.5C and is a good downward trend as last Monday it was at +1.7C.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

[cycloneye]

It was supposed that at 06z of March 28 CFSv2 would be fixed and not show the cold bias of the South Atlantic but that anomaly is still there.This has implications to the ENSO forecast of this model as they noted in the press release earlier.

[wxman57]

Yeah, no change yet in its forecast, Luis.

[WeatherEmperor]

With the Pdo being as strongly positive as it is I dont think Enso going neutral or la nina will lead to move favorable conditions in the Atlantic. Positive Pdo is kinda sorta the same as el nino with ripping shear. Perhaps other conditions may be a little more favorable compared to last year such as slp forecasts in the Mdr but I think the season is most likely to be neutral or ever so slightly below normal with something like 11-12 total named storms. I just dont see the highly positive factors that would lead to an above average season. Anybody care to chime in?

[Ntxw]

With the Pdo being as strongly positive as it is I dont think Enso going neutral or la nina will lead to move favorable conditions in the Atlantic. Positive Pdo is kinda sorta the same as el nino with ripping shear. Perhaps other conditions may be a little more favorable compared to last year such as slp forecasts in the Mdr but I think the season is most likely to be neutral or ever so slightly below normal with something like 11-12 total named storms. I just dont see the highly positive factors that would lead to an above average season. Anybody care to chime in?

PDO has more direct influence on the EPAC season more than the Atlantic. Its indirect influence is between the EPAC's influence on Atlantic activity. The difference between a 1983 vs 1998 type transition.

Again PDO is a long term index, you must view it in many months and years vs daily or weekly changes like the AMO. 2016 has already started strong positive and will continue for a few months if not longer. Even if -PDO does arise the long term we likely wont see it in time for the 2016 Hurricane season

[WeatherEmperor]

What are your thoughts on the Pdo in terms of atlantic activity for 2016? Do u think it will hurt activity or maybe there is no way to really know?

With the Pdo being as strongly positive as it is I dont think Enso going neutral or la nina will lead to move favorable conditions in the Atlantic. Positive Pdo is kinda sorta the same as el nino with ripping shear. Perhaps other conditions may be a little more favorable compared to last year such as slp forecasts in the Mdr but I think the season is most likely to be neutral or ever so slightly below normal with something like 11-12 total named storms. I just dont see the highly positive factors that would lead to an above average season. Anybody care to chime in?

PDO has more direct influence on the EPAC season more than the Atlantic. Its indirect influence is between the EPAC's influence on Atlantic activity. The difference between a 1983 vs 1998 type transition.

Again PDO is a long term index, you must view it in many months and years vs daily or weekly changes like the AMO. 2016 has already started strong positive and will continue for a few months if not longer. Even if -PDO does arise the long term we likely wont see it in time for the 2016 Hurricane season

[Ntxw]

I think the PDO will likely give us more of a Nino-Nina transition similar to 1983 vs 1998. Its a deterrent over calling a full blown hyperactive season. In 1998 there were stronger cold anomalies south of hawaii and west of Mexico already present. For now I would guess a more moderate Nina because of this vs a super Nina. If that changes then I would feel better accepting a much above average Atlantic season, closer to normal would be the conservative view.

Something more related to the Atlantic is the very large cold pool that has developed in the far North Atlantic since 2013. Perhaps analogs using that match?

[Hurricaneman]

Might use 2013 as an analog as well as 1973

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.