Global Model Runs for W.Caribbean Early Season Development

[Eyewall]

Movement very slow on this run steering currents still weak.

[Vortex]

100 miles with this system may make all the difference in the early stages!

['CaneFreak]

100 miles with this system may make all the difference in the early stages!

Not really...this pattern is just like '06 and '07....there is just too much ridging in the GOM...nothing can penetrate a 588 or 584 dm ridge at 500 mb...sorry....it just ain't gonna happen...

[Eyewall]

High pressure very strong on this run so far.

[MiamiensisWx]

Possible crossing into the eastern tropical Pacific or southern Bay of Campeche is suggested.

[NDG]

Supporting the East Pac instead of Caribbean basin, is a pre-existing blob in the East Pac, and not in the Caribbean.

Watch the Caribbean burst in convection by early to mid next week, until then nothing.

So far everything that the gfs has been coming out for more than a week has been materializing.

['CaneFreak]

I would be watching the tropical wave over Venezuela more than anything folks...I mean...the blob down there now is probably not the one that is going to develop...

[MiamiensisWx]

I would be watching the tropical wave over Venezuela more than anything folks...I mean...the blob down there now is probably not the one that is going to develop...

The wave axis and weak convergence line is going to interact with the surface trough in the southern Caribbean.

[KWT]

Possible crossing into the eastern tropical Pacific or southern Bay of Campeche is suggested.

I doubt it because the high is weakening to the north, it certainly could end up crossing inland though over the Yucatan but the general trend should still be generally northwards in the longer term.

['CaneFreak]

I would be watching the tropical wave over Venezuela more than anything folks...I mean...the blob down there now is probably not the one that is going to develop...

The wave axis and weak convergence line is going to interact with the surface trough in the southern Caribbean.

Correct....that is what I am saying...dont watch the blob down there now...the wave over Venezuela has to converge with the surface trough that is dying now before anything will spin up...

[RL3AO]

Like I said last night, the EPac has had a May storm every year since 1999. Looks like the streak will probably end this year.

[NDG]

Actually on this run there is a slight weakness in the ridge over the west central gulfcoast

[Ivanhater]

Only spends a brief time over land..back over water..

[Eyewall]

I have been saying it all along I think this system is going to go against what climatology says it should do this time of year.

[Opal storm]

I'm about to jump off this bandwagon, I don't see anything significant coming out of this anymore. Too much land to deal with and not very favorable conditions aloft either. Unless that ridge breaks down and gives it more room to work with it's just going to get sheared off to the west into Mexico and be a big rain maker. May have a brief window of opportunity off the Yucatan before going inland though.

[Vortex]

Back of over water..Gulf of Honduras


H+108

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_108l.gif

[Eyewall]

very well organized after coming off of the land.

[MiamiensisWx]

I'm about to jump off this bandwagon, I don't see anything significant coming out of this anymore. Too much land to deal with and not very favorable conditions aloft either. Unless that ridge breaks down and gives it more room to work with it's just going to get sheared off to the west into Mexico and be a big rain maker. May have a brief window of opportunity off the Yucatan before going inland though.

1. Most June conditions for cyclogenesis are not optimal, but they do not prohibit slight development to a weak or moderate system (TS). In some cases, hurricanes like Alma 1966 and Allison 1995 have developed, but that is highly unlikely in this situation.
2. Several tropical depressions have actually developed over land in Central America during May and June in the historical records.

[Vortex]

H+120 Inland near Chetemul

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_120l.gif

[NDG]

It will be very hard for a system to move much westward this time of the year, ridges are usually not that strong yet, and the whole atmosphere still moves from W to east in the mid latitudes, if indeed we have development it will find a NE path sooner or later.