Tropical Wave over the SE Bahamas (Is INVEST 91L)

[stormlover2013]

Cp does ridge look stronger ?

[Steve]

Euro coming in stronger at 48 hours.

I was just about to post that. It’s a hair southwest of the previous run as well. 72 hours stronger and west of Sarasota. Ridge around the Carolinas is getting stronger and is depicted so vs the last run and is centered a bit west - now in WV instead of NOVA.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 90100&fh=6

[Cpv17]

Cp does ridge look stronger ?

No not really maybe a tad stronger, but not much. With the way this run is looking it looks like it will end up going towards the central Louisiana coast which is slightly west of its last run unless it makes a sharp hook west before that.

[Steve]

Cp does ridge look stronger ?

No not really maybe a tad stronger, but not much. With the way this run is looking it looks like it will end up going towards the central Louisiana coast which is slightly west of its last run unless it makes a sharp hook west before that.

Notice the center of the ridge had nudged west though so it’s influence would be westward with the system.

[MississippiWx]

Well, this just got interesting again. Euro shows a strengthening strong tropical storm approaching the SE Louisiana coast at 96 hours.

[Steve]

B line for Boothville at 96 hours. 998 and depicted concentric on the European. That’s a mid grade TS.

Also, that’s like day after day for the EC track wise. There was the one east track and the one west one earlier in the week.

[Cpv17]

Euro through 96 hours has it going into NOLA as a strong ts. Euro seems fixated on a NOLA landfall and has for a while now.

[Brent]

well that escalated quickly

[MississippiWx]

Track is still up for debate, but I think the thing we take away from tonight's runs is that the models are picking up on a more favorable environment for development. The Euro even has this as a tropical depression or weak storm crossing Florida.

[Steve]

well that escalated quickly

Remember it went west and then southwest last run so maybe it stays closer to the coast this time around meaning Houston could get a taste. Big high building in from the nw Crossing the country. Should go west at 144.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 100&fh=120

[Cpv17]

well that escalated quickly

Remember it went west and then southwest last run so maybe it stays closer to the coast this time around meaning Houston could get a taste.

Texas needs the rain. 81% of the state is experiencing some sort of drought conditions so a weak storm through Texas would be a blessing as long as it doesn’t stall out. Euro isn’t budging from NOLA landfall. Has been pretty much dead set on that area for the past 3-4 days and it’s hard to ignore that, but a lot of other models say differently.

[MississippiWx]

What you guys can't see on Tropical Tidbits is a higher resolution version. The higher resolution has this coming ashore in Louisiana at 984mb...a hurricane.

[PTrackerLA]

Borderline Cat 1 with 985mb at 108hrs on 00z Euro.

[Steve]

What you guys can't see on Tropical Tidbits is a higher resolution version. The higher resolution has this coming ashore in Louisiana at 984mb...a hurricane.

Do you have access to lesser increments than 24 hours, and if so, where does it show it coming in and valid for what time? Gracias

[Steve]

well that escalated quickly

Remember it went west and then southwest last run so maybe it stays closer to the coast this time around meaning Houston could get a taste.

Texas needs the rain. 81% of the state is experiencing some sort of drought conditions so a weak storm through Texas would be a blessing as long as it doesn’t stall out. Euro isn’t budging from NOLA landfall. Has been pretty much dead set on that area for the past 3-4 days and it’s hard to ignore that, but a lot of other models say differently.

Yeah. I was there in May and July. All the water stuff in hill country was dry. But EC now recognizes the low pressure in the gulf we are dealing with now. I think the Triangle at least will get a couple inches from that.

[bamajammer4eva]

[Cpv17]

well that escalated quickly

Remember it went west and then southwest last run so maybe it stays closer to the coast this time around meaning Houston could get a taste. Big high building in from the nw Crossing the country. Should go west at 144.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 100&fh=120

Steve, you were right on with this post with that high building in. Big bend back west at hr 144 into the Golden Triangle. Almost back out over the Gulf.

[Steve]

Damn. A Cat 2? That’s a surprise. Also the move across Louisiana is farther south. Initially it gets up to like Kentwood (North of Hammond) near the MS border and then cruises Baton Rouge, Lafayette, Lake Charles Beaumont and is on a drop. So Houston looks to be in on this too and then maybe south of Austin for the 168?

[Steve]

well that escalated quickly

Remember it went west and then southwest last run so maybe it stays closer to the coast this time around meaning Houston could get a taste. Big high building in from the nw Crossing the country. Should go west at 144.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 100&fh=120

Steve, you were right on with this post with that high building in. Big bend back west at hr 144 into the Golden Triangle. Almost back out over the Gulf.

Thanks. I’m not a euro hugger (I usually cheer for the underdog models) but sometimes when it’s consistent, you have to give it its due. And with the other models coming on board with a W/WSW move (except GFS), it’s being telegraphed a little imho.

[Cpv17]

Euro run is crazy...man, wow