2020 EPAC Season

[Kingarabian]

The 12Z ECMWF looking more bullish for the system the GFS insists will become a significant hurricane. Seems if the storm can stay away from Mexico, could become a major:

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/SNbb8r6Y/ecmwf-mslpa-Norm-epac-8.png[/rl]

Would love to see a major hurricane fish but if it manages to stay off of the Mexico coastline. But it's going to be traversing the same region where Cristina and Elida struggled -- mainly due to dry air. So i'll have reservations on just how strong it will get.

[aspen]

The 18z GFS has the 20/70 AOI form in the next 48-60 hours and stay a little further off the coast, which allows it to become a major in only 5 days.

[cycloneye]

A trough of low pressure is located just offshore the Pacific
coast of Central America. Conditions are expected to be conducive
for a low to develop from this trough over the next couple of days,
and and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend or
early next week while the system moves generally west-northwestward
just offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[Extratropical94]

No change at 11pm

A trough of low pressure is located just offshore of the Pacific
coast of Central America. Conditions are expected to be conducive
for a low pressure system to develop from this trough over the next
couple of days, and a tropical depression is likely to form this
weekend or early next week while the system moves generally
west-northwestward just offshore of the southwestern coast of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[cycloneye]

The southwestern portion of the aforementioned trough is also
producing a large are of disturbed weather nearly 1000 miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
Environmental conditions are expected to be favorable for the
development of this system and it could become a tropical depression
while it moves slowly northward during the next few days. after that
time.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.


A trough of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms just offshore of the Pacific coast of Central America.
Conditions are expected to be conducive for a low pressure system
to develop from this trough over the next couple of days, and a
tropical depression is likely to form this weekend or early next
week while the system moves generally west-northwestward just
offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[cycloneye]

3. A trough of low pressure continues to produce disorganized
showers and thunderstorms just offshore of the Pacific coast of
Central America. Conditions are expected to be conducive for a low
pressure system to develop from this trough over the next couple of
days, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend or
early next week while the system moves generally west-northwestward
just offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[cycloneye]

70%/90%

A trough of low pressure continues to produce disorganized
showers and thunderstorms just offshore of the Pacific coast of
Central America. Conditions are expected to be conducive for a low
pressure system to develop from this trough over the next day or
so, and a tropical depression or storm is likely to form this
weekend or early next week while the system moves generally
west-northwestward just offshore of the southwestern coast of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[gatorcane]

Quite active:

[CyclonicFury]

Despite the strong MJO pulse and TC outbreak, none of the TCs so far have developed into classic longtrackers from this MJO event. This isn't 2014, 2015 or 2018. The EPAC will likely quiet down late this month as the MJO propagates eastward.

[Kingarabian]

Despite the strong MJO pulse and TC outbreak, none of the TCs so far have developed into classic longtrackers from this MJO event. This isn't 2014, 2015 or 2018. The EPAC will likely quiet down late this month as the MJO propagates eastward.

Don't forget 2016 and 2017. They boith had respectable long trackers and bursts of activity despite being cool neutral/La Nina year.

The 2014-2018 EPAC era probably generated the most EPAC ACE on record.

[gatorcane]

The GFS insists the EPAC will stay active:

[gatorcane]

The GFS parallel ensembles with some weak activity in the EPAC:

[aspen]

The GFS parallel has another major hurricane in the EPAC following in the wake of 95E:

https://i.postimg.cc/J0rXYm5v/gfsp-mslp-pcpn-epac-44.png

The GFS-Para hasn’t had an updated run in five days; the most recent run is from August 10th.

[gatorcane]

The GFS parallel has another major hurricane in the EPAC following in the wake of 95E:

https://i.postimg.cc/J0rXYm5v/gfsp-mslp-pcpn-epac-44.png

The GFS-Para hasn’t had an updated run in five days; the most recent run is from August 10th.

Thanks for pointing this out. I removed that image and replaced with the GFS parallel ensembles.

[NDG]

The GFS insists the EPAC will stay active:

https://i.postimg.cc/tgNfHMDG/gfs-mslp-pcpn-epac-41.png

That's probably because the GFS is erroneously retrograding the MJO back to the EPAC side as Michael Ventrice pointed that out.
The GEFS-Para is less aggressive on the EPAC and more aggressive on the Atlantic side on its long range forecast compared to the GFS & GEFS.

[gatorcane]

The GFS insists the EPAC will stay active:

https://i.postimg.cc/tgNfHMDG/gfs-mslp-pcpn-epac-41.png

That's probably because the GFS is erroneously retrograding the MJO back to the EPAC side as Michael Ventrice pointed that out.
The GEFS-Para is less aggressive on the EPAC and more aggressive on the Atlantic side on its long range forecast compared to the GFS & GEFS.

Yes I saw Michael’s post. If the GFS is not correctly handling the MJO then yes it is just spinning up phantoms. Latest 12Z GFS run still has not given up on the EPAC:

[CyclonicFury]

This "hyperactive period" will be lucky to produce 10 ACE.

[MarioProtVI]

Really wish Avila was still at NHC so he could do 11E’s advisory and the state of the EPac right now. It’d be hilarious

[gatorcane]

The GFS is trending a stronger with yet another storm behind TD 12. Timeframe is coming in each run (development actually starts around 168 hours):

[Yellow Evan]

GFS is keeping the MJO in the basin for too long. Disregard.