2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

[zzzh]

2024 feels the pressure . Anyway, current MDR SST is at July 23 level.

[Long John]

can you send me the link to this graph please

[zzzh]

can you send me the link to this graph please

I plotted it myself, there is no link.

[cycloneye]

This was said in the X chat and for our friends and myself in the Caribbean Islands is not good news at all. He was talking about the warm North Atlantic waters.

The window for average activity is open well into the hurricane season but well above average SST is basically locked in at this point

[Category5Kaiju]

https://i.imgur.com/DkJV74H.png
2024 feels the pressure . Anyway, current MDR SST is at July 23 level.

Man last year's rate of warming was crazy. It was quite warm, then all of a sudden in June it just skyrockets.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

[cainjamin]

Wow looks like very low trades for the next several weeks in the MDR. Now that the SAL outbreak as passed the anomolies should start to get even higher which is hard to believe.

[Jr0d]

The Bermuda high looks like it may be setting up in an ominous spot for the SE US and GoM.

All the indicators are a bit troublesome.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

 https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1782753843719123011

[Hurricane2022]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1782736183287796183

[cainjamin]

Easy to see the SAL surge just east of the Antilles causing a reduction in SSTAs, and then warming back up rapidly after it passed around Cabo Verde. I bet we'll start to see between 40-60W warm up quickly as well as the next few days pass.

[CyclonicFury]

Even with how favorable the Atlantic base state appears, it's important to note that Atlantic hurricane seasons coming off a strong or very strong El Nino often start fairly slow and tend to be more backloaded. 2010, with comparable MDR warmth to this year, did not have its first NATL tropical cyclone until June 25 (which did become a rare late June hurricane); however, July and early August were fairly quiet in 2010 with activity not picking up until the last third of August. 1998 did not have its first tropical cyclone until July 27th (Tropical Storm Alex). 2016 did have three tropical storms between late May and late June (including the controversial Colin), but July was completely dead with no tropical cyclogenesis at all. Seasons coming off a significant El Nino in the -AMO era had even slower starts, though I don't think they are comparable to 2024 with its remarkable MDR warmth.

North Atlantic tropical cyclogenesis during the month of May tends to be non-tropical in origin for the most part. Even with how favorable the base state is, I'd be surprised if we saw a TC in the North Atlantic of tropical origin before the very end of May/start of June.

[cycloneye]

Wow, 2024. Impressive but at the same time worrisom.

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1782845560644354137

[cycloneye]

Even with how favorable the Atlantic base state appears, it's important to note that Atlantic hurricane seasons coming off a strong or very strong El Nino often start fairly slow and tend to be more backloaded. 2010, with comparable MDR warmth to this year, did not have its first NATL tropical cyclone until June 25 (which did become a rare late June hurricane); however, July and early August were fairly quiet in 2010 with activity not picking up until the last third of August. 1998 did not have its first tropical cyclone until July 27th (Tropical Storm Alex). 2016 did have three tropical storms between late May and late June (including the controversial Colin), but July was completely dead with no tropical cyclogenesis at all. Seasons coming off a significant El Nino in the -AMO era had even slower starts, though I don't think they are comparable to 2024 with its remarkable MDR warmth.

North Atlantic tropical cyclogenesis during the month of May tends to be non-tropical in origin for the most part. Even with how favorable the base state is, I'd be surprised if we saw a TC in the North Atlantic of tropical origin before the very end of May/start of June.

In other words, we may see some season canceled posts.

[Teban54]

Wow, 2024. Impressive but at the same time worrisom.

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1782845560644354137

To be very honest, seeing these makes me wonder why it was universally agreed upon that 2020 would be hyperactive in the first place. (Not "season canceling" 2020, but in hindsight, indicators for 2020 at this time seem much less favorable than 2024.)

[cycloneye]

2024 sticks out.

 https://twitter.com/WeatherProf/status/1782861849404338272

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Even with how favorable the Atlantic base state appears, it's important to note that Atlantic hurricane seasons coming off a strong or very strong El Nino often start fairly slow and tend to be more backloaded. 2010, with comparable MDR warmth to this year, did not have its first NATL tropical cyclone until June 25 (which did become a rare late June hurricane); however, July and early August were fairly quiet in 2010 with activity not picking up until the last third of August. 1998 did not have its first tropical cyclone until July 27th (Tropical Storm Alex). 2016 did have three tropical storms between late May and late June (including the controversial Colin), but July was completely dead with no tropical cyclogenesis at all. Seasons coming off a significant El Nino in the -AMO era had even slower starts, though I don't think they are comparable to 2024 with its remarkable MDR warmth.

North Atlantic tropical cyclogenesis during the month of May tends to be non-tropical in origin for the most part. Even with how favorable the base state is, I'd be surprised if we saw a TC in the North Atlantic of tropical origin before the very end of May/start of June.

In other words, we may see some season canceled posts.

They'll come when there's a 1 to 2-week long lull in activity sometime in late July/early August, as if even the most hyperactive seasons haven't had their quieter/weaker periods.

By the way that's a great point regarding seasons following significant Niño events often having somewhat delayed starts. I would imagine some of that has to do with a lag in atmospheric response to the changing ENSO state.

[cycloneye]

Even with how favorable the Atlantic base state appears, it's important to note that Atlantic hurricane seasons coming off a strong or very strong El Nino often start fairly slow and tend to be more backloaded. 2010, with comparable MDR warmth to this year, did not have its first NATL tropical cyclone until June 25 (which did become a rare late June hurricane); however, July and early August were fairly quiet in 2010 with activity not picking up until the last third of August. 1998 did not have its first tropical cyclone until July 27th (Tropical Storm Alex). 2016 did have three tropical storms between late May and late June (including the controversial Colin), but July was completely dead with no tropical cyclogenesis at all. Seasons coming off a significant El Nino in the -AMO era had even slower starts, though I don't think they are comparable to 2024 with its remarkable MDR warmth.

North Atlantic tropical cyclogenesis during the month of May tends to be non-tropical in origin for the most part. Even with how favorable the base state is, I'd be surprised if we saw a TC in the North Atlantic of tropical origin before the very end of May/start of June.

In other words, we may see some season canceled posts.

They'll come when there's a 1 to 2-week long lull in activity sometime in late July/early August, as if even the most hyperactive seasons haven't had their quieter/weaker periods.

By the way that's a great point regarding seasons following significant Niño events often having somewhat delayed starts. I would imagine some of that has to do with a lag in atmospheric response to the changing ENSO state.

It could be a backloaded season.

[Cpv17]

In other words, we may see some season canceled posts.

They'll come when there's a 1 to 2-week long lull in activity sometime in late July/early August, as if even the most hyperactive seasons haven't had their quieter/weaker periods.

By the way that's a great point regarding seasons following significant Niño events often having somewhat delayed starts. I would imagine some of that has to do with a lag in atmospheric response to the changing ENSO state.

It could be a backloaded season.

That would most likely keep most of the Gulf states safe if that happens.

[Hurricaneman]

They'll come when there's a 1 to 2-week long lull in activity sometime in late July/early August, as if even the most hyperactive seasons haven't had their quieter/weaker periods.

By the way that's a great point regarding seasons following significant Niño events often having somewhat delayed starts. I would imagine some of that has to do with a lag in atmospheric response to the changing ENSO state.

It could be a backloaded season.

That would most likely keep most of the Gulf states safe if that happens.

Not necessarily as a good chunk of intense systems have hit the gulf states in late September into October