TS Irene=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[cycloneye]

12:00z Models shift more west.

[WeatherEmperor]

provided Irene survives, it could become very interesting for FL if those models verify.

<RICKY>

[gatorcane]

Irene is just being stealthy by temporarily weakening to avoid getting dragged out into the Atlantic graveyard...she has her eyes set on the U.S in my opinion...

[Hyperstorm]

12:00z Models shift more west.

Those are exactly the 5 models that Rockyman was talking about...

BAMD
BAMM
LBAR
NHCA98E
GFDL

I wouldn't put any faith on 80% of these models, since Irene is far enough north of the deep tropics...

[DESTRUCTION5]

12:00z Models shift more west.

Told Everyone...Circ or no Circ..This thinf is trending west!

[HURAKAN]

Now, how would this influence the NHC forecast at 11 am? Continue shifting leftward?

[WeatherEmperor]

Now, how would this influence the NHC forecast at 11 am? Continue shifting leftward?

well Sandy you know how the NHC is. They pretty much focus on continuity before they make any significant leftward shift but it seems likely they will shift left.

<RICKY>

[BensonTCwatcher]

They say the trend is your friend on the models...sheesh. But I must admit I flip flopped. Last week I gave this a 20% of impacting the east coast. 80% recurve or dissipate. Then thought that it had an 80% of continuing west and recurving before the coast based on the pros here and the NHC plus my take on the winds and synoptics.

I never bought that weakness in the ridge. The GFS has said that many times and it did not happen. This storm has never gained any height so the low level winds have pushed it west the whole time. (correct me if I am wrong ) and hence has never been affected by the ridge weakness. What has surprised the heck out of me is the vigorous LLC that has reformed or persisted though the shear AND dry air. The biggest factor now is the new circulation I think.

[gatorcane]

Now, how would this influence the NHC forecast at 11 am? Continue shifting leftward?

They will shift west but only slightly. The NHC is very conservative on making drastic changes...they go with trends...if the trend continues expect more of a shift by the 5pm advisory.

[jabber]

Now, how would this influence the NHC forecast at 11 am? Continue shifting leftward?

They will shift west but only slightly. The NHC is very conservative on making drastic changes...they go with trends...if the trend continues expect more of a shift by the 5pm advisory.

I agree but only if the do not downgrade her to an open wave.

[BensonTCwatcher]

I think what we are seeing on QS is that made the pass when the new LLC was forming.

[ThunderMate]

Im still not buying a Florida hit but more of a perhaps carolina hit which just seems more likely due to the latitude Irene is at and the ridge weakening a couple days from now allowing her to curve up behind the ridge and impact the carolinas and virginia.

[Hyperstorm]

I never bought that weakness in the ridge. The GFS has said that many times and it did not happen. This storm has never gained any height so the low level winds have pushed it west the whole time. (correct me if I am wrong ) and hence has never been affected by the ridge weakness. What has surprised the heck out of me is the vigorous LLC that has reformed or persisted though the shear AND dry air. The biggest factor now is the new circulation I think.

The system has definitely gained height since it was a tropical wave. During the first 2-3 days of it being classified, the system responded to a weakness in the Central Atlantic by moving NW. Now that weakness is NE of the system, the system will continue to move WNW for a while until another weakness approaches from the Eastern United States. It will all depend on the strength of Irene if it moves north toward the weakness or it continues WNW.

[Derek Ortt]

as I said before, a weaker storm is far more likely to move out to sea than a stronger storm. Look at the deep layer steering with the northerly upper level flow affecting the cyclone and look at the BAM solutions. Previously it was right that a weaker storm would move more westerly since the upper flow was SW, but now its NW, making that idea incorrect

[WeatherEmperor]

ah the much awaited 11am NHC discussion cant get her any sooner.

<RICKY>

[Derek Ortt]

also, we are not killing this off at 11, afetr careful sonsideration

[Scorpion]

Derek do you think it will reintensify to a TS under favorable conditions?

[WeatherEmperor]

also, we are not killing this off at 11, afetr careful sonsideration

ah hah! the mighty Derek Ortt has changed his mind!!!! He is a flip flopper! lol just messin with you dude.

<RICKY>

[BensonTCwatcher]

Perhaps I shoudl not have said ANY height. It was in high shear and never built up enough height to follow the model guidance. I agree that from here forward it will respond to ridge/weakness. I can't see a W movement into FL or the GOM at all

[gatorcane]

Derek, yes as Scorpion asks, I see no reason why this can't be a major hurricane 7+ days out given the warm SSTs, the Gulf stream, and the conditions becoming more favorable.