ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Kingarabian]

Going down down down. Things from this point on ain't no repeat of '83. By this time in '83 Nino 1+2 is nearing +3 deg C on its way up to a whopping +4.62 deg C in June.

1+2 are volatile, don't forget.

[NDG]

Going down down down. Things from this point on ain't no repeat of '83. By this time in '83 Nino 1+2 is nearing +3 deg C on its way up to a whopping +4.62 deg C in June.

http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b245/ ... oh4ste.png

1+2 are volatile, don't forget.

Yes, I understand it is volatile, but all I am saying now is that it is cooling off while this same time in '83 it was on its way back up close to a whopping +5 deg C during the early summer months, it will be almost impossible for the current Nino 1+2 conditions to go back up close to those numbers in '83.

[NDG]

One thing that I have noticed with today's ECMWF's update on its Nino 3 & 3.4 ENSO forecast is that it keeps trending colder for June-July Period, but as usual for this time of the year it does that uptick in temps towards the end of its forecast. So I will not doubt that over the next couple of months it will start trending colder for September.

[Ntxw]

Just something out of curiosity, Ecuador just experienced a 7.8 earthquake that has been devastating (prayers). Death toll is rising. Out of interest I looked at some of their most notable quakes and Wikipedia lists 1958 (1957-58 Nino), 1987 (1986-87), 1998 (1997-98), 2010 (2009-10) and now 2016 (2015-16). All of these were near 6.9 or higher and consequently coming on the back end of El Nino's (or transitioning from El Nino). Curious. I decided to look since Ecuador sits on the Equator next to the ENSO regions.

[Ntxw]

Nino 3.4 holds steady at 1.3C this week

[NDG]

I am thinking this year big time cooling from the Nino Regions is going to go from east to west starting at Nino 1+2, as we are seeing now. Unlike '83.

[cycloneye]

Text of CPC update of 4/18/16 that has Nino 3.4 the same as last week update. (+1.3C)

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[Hurricaneman]

I could see the number being 1.1 or 1.0 next week based on what I'm seeing on tropical tidbits

[Hurricaneman]

I am thinking this year big time cooling from the Nino Regions is going to go from east to west starting at Nino 1+2, as we are seeing now. Unlike '83.

Which from my years of watching these transitions is quite unusual which may be wrong but that's how I interpret it

[Kingarabian]

30 day SOI is -14.

[Ntxw]

+PDO is the slugger for 3.4 relative to the cooling of the other regions probably. 1+2 is heavily influenced by the southern hemisphere, and one of the reasons the Nino didn't go extreme in the east like in 97 or 83 is probably due to the southern hemisphere (off SA) not cooperating. It hasn't been since the failed 2012 NIno dud. It's almost the final half of April and we aren't at neutral yet. In 1998 this same update was 0.6C and 2010 was 0.7C

[NDG]

+PDO is the slugger for 3.4 relative to the cooling of the other regions probably. 1+2 is heavily influenced by the southern hemisphere, and one of the reasons the Nino didn't go extreme in the east like in 97 or 83 is probably due to the southern hemisphere (off SA) not cooperating. It hasn't been since the failed 2012 NIno dud. It's almost the final half of April and we aren't at neutral yet. In 1998 this same update was 0.6C and 2010 was 0.7C

You are right about Nino 3.4 being at 0.6C by this same time in '98 but it went back up to +1.3C in early May, it did not go fully Neutral until the end of May then negative by early June. Meanwhile Nino 1+2 was boiling at +3.1C and continued going up to +3.9C by the end of May, the reason why I say that year the hurricane season took a while to get going and the reason why the EPAC produced 5 Major Hurricanes between June and August, IMO.

[Hunabku]

One thing that I have noticed with today's ECMWF's update on its Nino 3 & 3.4 ENSO forecast is that it keeps trending colder for June-July Period, but as usual for this time of the year it does that uptick in temps towards the end of its forecast. So I will not doubt that over the next couple of months it will start trending colder for September.

Interesting, I thought the reason why ECMWF had June-July at the lowest SSTs had to do with the speed, volume and temp of the current cold tongue. It almost seems that it could bottom out around June-July and start heating up, especially with negative trade anomalies around that time. Anyway, seems that the more eastern regions (1+2 & 3) will cool the most and the quickest, so I wonder if those regions, in general relative to regions 3.4 & 4, are capable of causing a more profound reduction of the Atlantic horizontal wind shear? Also curious about El Nino atmospheric lag times related to the wind shear, if there is any appreciable lag?

[Ntxw]

+PDO is the slugger for 3.4 relative to the cooling of the other regions probably. 1+2 is heavily influenced by the southern hemisphere, and one of the reasons the Nino didn't go extreme in the east like in 97 or 83 is probably due to the southern hemisphere (off SA) not cooperating. It hasn't been since the failed 2012 NIno dud. It's almost the final half of April and we aren't at neutral yet. In 1998 this same update was 0.6C and 2010 was 0.7C

You are right about Nino 3.4 being at 0.6C by this same time in '98 but it went back up to +1.3C in early May, it did not go fully Neutral until the end of May then negative by early June. Meanwhile Nino 1+2 was boiling at +3.1C and continued going up to +3.9C by the end of May, the reason why I say that year the hurricane season took a while to get going and the reason why the EPAC produced 5 Major Hurricanes between June and August, IMO.

The thermocline slope for 1998 was much more impressive than this April thus far. I don't think the collapse to Nina will be quite as fast as that year. There are still yet not any significant bursts of trades to upwell the cold waters to the surface in the near term. So far it's mostly been the natural balance of a fading Nino vs springing to a bolstering Nina. The lack of WWB's in late 2012 and 2014 dampened those potential Nino's. The surface, as we have learned over the past several ENSO (or non events) is that winds are so important.






We'll get the Nina, still waiting for significant signs of change as well as how strong it will get.

[Hunabku]

It appears that the trades, as of late, have been a solid factor in the cooling-upwelling in eastern regions.

[cycloneye]

The latest from the ENSO Models show El Nino going away by June and Weak La Nina thru ASO.Graphic from Phil Klotzbach.

[Dean_175]

Though very much limited to the equator, cool anomalies have progressed to 120 W over the last week :






Very thin, and rest of the ocean is still very Nino-like , but worth mentioning.

[Ntxw]

You can also see it via SSH's. The great moses split (lower ocean with higher heights above and below), infamous in the Nino->Nina transitions.

[dexterlabio]

Is there news about the effects of the outgoing El Nino in Western US? Was it successful in easing the drought? I have relatives in the San Francisco Bay Area and they said they are receiving thunderstorm almost every day. Though I'm not sure if the rainfall amount was enough to combat the 7-year drought.

[stormwise]

SSTA in ºC predicted by the ensemble-averaged nonlinear model for the four consecutive seasons starting with MJJ 2016.Thick black curve is used for the zero contour.