2014 EPAC Season

[Yellow Evan]

Ex-Bertha?

Not quite. I think it was Pouch 02L. Ex-Two is the one behind it (the CMC shows it)

[Yellow Evan]

An area of low pressure is forecast to form well south of southern
Mexico late this weekend. Some gradual development of this system
is possible after that time.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

Talk about favorable.

[Yellow Evan]

GFS shows the 0/20 to become a hurricane out at sea.

[Yellow Evan]

An area of low pressure could form well south of southern Mexico
in a few days. Some gradual development of this system is possible
after that time while it moves west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

Formation



Peak



CMC

Edit to add in 0z GFS

[Yellow Evan]

GFS still aggressive with this.

[TheStormExpert]

Has the GFS's forecasted strength actually panned out with any of these systems?

[Yellow Evan]

Has the GFS's forecasted strength actually panned out with any of these systems?

Yes, if anything they have underecasted Hernan. They sometimes overcast when the MJO is favorable like it is now (happened a lot in 2013, and twice this season).

[Yellow Evan]

2. A large area of cloudiness and showers extending several hundred
miles off the southwestern coast of Mexico is associated with a
tropical wave. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
gradual development of this system later this week while it moves
westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

Shows a tropical storm now.



Saw this on another forum. It was made by some met AFAIK. Very different from Cowan's graphic, and that means we could get more storms over the next few days.



Also, the CPAC is very busy right now.

2. A weak center of low pressure was located about 780 miles south southwest of Oahu. The surrounding environment may permit this system to develop slightly as it continues to move west near 10 mph during the next couple of days.* Formation chance through 48 hours, low, 20 percent.

Don't know where this came from, maybe an ITCZ breakdown.

Posted from the WPAC thread, here is Ana in the fantasy range being like Ele 02.

[somethingfunny]

[Yellow Evan]

CMC has the TC spam counting. Given the size, don't discount it. It was the first to show the last outburst.

The left system is currently near 130W, the middle one 0/30, and the right one the wave between 02L and 93L.



Is this 1985? Oh wait it it is CMC

Brings Julio to 990 mbar between those two images.





Last two GFS runs just make the 0/30 a mid-level TS.

Now, on to the CFS











Outburst. Also, worth pointing out it shows a storm like Guillermo 09/97 in there. Also shows that in about 4 weeks, we'll have to watch storms near the MX cost. The CFS is not good for exact tracks, but it gives an indication to how favorable conditions will be, especially during the peak of the season. Prior to both 2012 and 2013's peak, CFS showed plenty of systems.

Also, EPAC still forecast to be quite favorable in the long range. .

[Yellow Evan]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 292340
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure located about 900 miles south-southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
are conducive for gradual development of this system during the next
several days as this system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

An area of cloudiness and thunderstorms has formed in association
with a low pressure system about 1500 miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Environmental
conditions appear favorable for some slow development of this system
during the next several days as the low moves generally westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

[Yellow Evan]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 300543
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure located about 950 miles south-southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
are conducive for gradual development of this system during the next
several days while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Disorganized cloudiness and showers are associated with a broad
area of low pressure located about 1500 miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Some slow
development of this system is possible during the next several days
while it moves westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



Yum. A hurricane out of the 20/70 thingy.

[euro6208]

I really love the EPAC. Mostly nice fishes to track that won't harm anyone...Nature's at it's best...

[Yellow Evan]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 301142
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure located about 1000 miles south-southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to
produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions should support the gradual development of this system
during the next several days while it moves west-northwestward at 10
to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Disorganized cloudiness and showers are associated with a broad
area of low pressure located about 1500 miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Some slow
development of this system is possible during the next several days
while it moves westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky/Pasch

[Yellow Evan]

Looking at 06z GFS







Brings 30/80 near the Hawaiian Islands

Looking at 0z CMC







Last system is likely something behind 30/80.

Looking at 12z Euro from yesterday





Wow.

0z Euro less aggressive though.



HWRF shows 2 TS's and 1 hurricane within the next 5 days.

[cycloneye]

A broad area of low pressure located about 1000 miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
continues to produce showers and thunderstorms. Although the
disturbance is currently disorganized, environmental conditions
should support the gradual development of this system during the
next several days while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

2. Disorganized cloudiness and showers are associated with an area of
low pressure located about 1600 miles southwest of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula. Some development of this
system is possible during the next several days before environmental
conditions become less conducive this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

3. An area of low pressure is forecast to form well southwest of the
southern coast of Mexico in a few days. Some gradual development of
this system is possible after that time.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

GFS consistently makes this a hurricane.



CMC shows many storms after 30/80.