2015 Global model runs discussion

#721 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Wed Sep 02, 2015 6:14 pm

The CMC and the Tropics go together like beer on top of liquor!

#722 Postby **LarryWx** » Wed Sep 02, 2015 6:27 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:The CMC and the Tropics go together like beer on top of liquor!

I don't know if you know this, but JB nicknamed the CMC the Crazy Uncle years ago. I thought that was hilarious and also appropriate.

#723 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Thu Sep 03, 2015 5:02 pm

LarryWx wrote:
Dean4Storms wrote:The CMC and the Tropics go together like beer on top of liquor!

I don't know if you know this, but JB nicknamed the CMC the Crazy Uncle years ago. I thought that was hilarious and also appropriate.

Yea, I've heard that one several times. Funny stuff!

#724 Postby **terstorm1012** » Thu Sep 03, 2015 8:21 pm

I don't see that 12zCMC modelstorm into New Orleans.

I do see one into Los Angeles though. am i looking at the wrong model? I'm playing with them at tropicaltidbits.

(I know it's highly unlikely. I'm just exploring models.)

#725 Postby **fendie** » Fri Sep 04, 2015 12:42 pm

terstorm1012 wrote:I don't see that 12zCMC modelstorm into New Orleans.

I do see one into Los Angeles though. am i looking at the wrong model? I'm playing with them at tropicaltidbits.

(I know it's highly unlikely. I'm just exploring models.)

The CMC dropped the gulf storm on yesterday's 0z run. They were referring to the 12z run a few days ago.

#726 Postby **gatorcane** » Fri Sep 04, 2015 2:04 pm

The 12Z ECMWF with another Cape Verde system behind 91L:

#727 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Sep 05, 2015 5:04 pm

18Z GFS quite bullish on development of the system behind 91L. Maybe NHC mentions it in the next outlook.

emeraldislenc · #728 Postby **emeraldislenc** » Sat Sep 05, 2015 6:21 pm

It will be interesting to read.

floridasun78 · #729 Postby **floridasun78** » Sat Sep 05, 2015 6:33 pm

gatorcane wrote:18Z GFS quite bullish on development of the system behind 91L. Maybe NHC mentions it in the next outlook.

you saying behind TROPICAL STORM GRACE

#730 Postby **Frank P** » Sat Sep 05, 2015 6:49 pm

Regardless of what lies ahead in the tropics, I think this is perhaps the most boring hurricane season that I can recall in recent years... El Nino has so far done the job! And that is not a bad thing from where I live!

MetroMike · #731 Postby **MetroMike** » Sat Sep 05, 2015 6:57 pm

Regardless of what lies ahead in the tropics, I think this is perhaps the most boring hurricane season that I can recall in recent years... El Nino has so far done the job! And that is not a bad thing from where I live!

Well said. Nothing can sustain any intensity for a long tracker. Its not fun to track weak systems with no model support. Even if it does get interesting it doesn't necessarily mean you are going to be threatened with anything strong.

galaxy401 · #732 Postby **galaxy401** » Sat Sep 05, 2015 7:00 pm

Frank P wrote:Regardless of what lies ahead in the tropics, I think this is perhaps the most boring hurricane season that I can recall in recent years... El Nino has so far done the job! And that is not a bad thing from where I live!

2013 I feel was more boring. At least this season spawned a major hurricane.

CYCLONE MIKE · #733 Postby **CYCLONE MIKE** » Sat Sep 05, 2015 9:49 pm

But if you blinked or sneezed you missed it

#734 Postby **gatorcane** » Sun Sep 06, 2015 11:58 am

CMC long range with a hurricane into LA, the one approaching Florida is Grace.

#735 Postby **WPBWeather** » Sun Sep 06, 2015 12:10 pm

gatorcane wrote:CMC long range with a hurricane into LA, the one approaching Florida is Grace.

Well why not! The models have shown up to Cat 5s everywhere except North Dakota it seems.

#736 Postby **South Texas Storms** » Sun Sep 06, 2015 2:04 pm

The 12z Euro is indicating that a tropical storm will develop from the cold front that is forecast to stall in the NW Gulf next weekend. The model then forecasts the tropical storm to make landfall near Beaumont in about 8 days.

Hammy · #737 Postby **Hammy** » Sun Sep 06, 2015 2:15 pm

South Texas Storms wrote:The 12z Euro is indicating that a tropical storm will develop from the cold front that is forecast to stall in the NW Gulf next weekend. The model then forecasts the tropical storm to make landfall near Beaumont in about 8 days.

So we have model support from all but the GFS now on this? Could get interesting as we head into the middle to late part of the month if this appears on more runs.

Hammy · #738 Postby **Hammy** » Mon Sep 07, 2015 1:57 am

Euro showing three more storms in about a week, including what appears to be a hurricane impacting Texas.

Website · #739 Postby **Brent** » Mon Sep 07, 2015 2:22 am

#740 Postby **tolakram** » Mon Sep 07, 2015 7:42 am

Weatherbell maps show 992MB at 204 hours as it comes ashore near Matagorda Bay. Pretty far out, things will certainly change.

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