Tropical Wave over the SE Bahamas (Is INVEST 91L)

[MississippiWx]

Well, that was a crazy run of the Euro. Would like to see the ensembles show some support for this idea before believing it too much.

[Brent]

what a turn of events that was

it looks like a decent hurricane on the IR satellite on weathermodels

[bamajammer4eva]

192 near Corpus Christi headed sw parallel hugging the TX coast.

[drezee]

Do not write this off. I still think this will be a TC in the GOM. Pattern is tricky, but loaded. Euro maybe having issues bundling energy south and north of the islands. It could actually spin up before FL ...

I tried to let everyone know that the euro was having problems bundling because of islands. This has happened before. Get prepared!

[Haris]

Im in Austin folks! Im gonna be hooked on this one ! Interesting times ahead

[Steve]

Oh wow. El Campo, Victoria and Corpus now in the mix as well. Euro low res actually intensifies as it’s dropping SW along the Texas Coastline. Can’t wait to see what it does for the last two plots. Does it loop or stall in Texas or drop all the way to Brownsville?

[Cpv17]

192 near Corpus Christi headed sw parallel hugging the TX coast.

If that happens then Texas and Louisiana is in for a tremendous amount of rain, no doubt.

[Cpv17]

Oh wow. El Campo, Victoria and Corpus now in the mix as well. Euro low res actually intensifies as it’s dropping SW along the Texas Coastline. Can’t wait to see what it does for the last two plits. Does it loop or stall in Texas or drop all the way to Brownsville?

I live in the Wharton/El Campo area. Crazy stuff indeed!

[MississippiWx]

That's a really bad track for piling water into the Louisiana and Mississippi coasts. It's only one run showing a hurricane, but even a weaker hurricane can cause bad surge problems with that approach.

[bamajammer4eva]

hr 216 it hangs out over Texas meanwhile (Off topic) there are 3 other systems in the Atlantic with the Front runner (TD 6/Flo) headed west a few hundred miles N of Puerto Rico.

[Steve]

216 it cuts a bit NW towards Gonzales and Luling so a bit east of Austin but at 996. How is that even possible after 3 days on land.

If this was going to be stronger, it would be a nightmare storm affecting probably close to 15 million people. Crazy.

[Haris]

i can not sleep now ! this night has turned 50x more interesting

[chaser1]

What the hell?? I woke up, took one weary look at the Euro up to the 216 hr., and swore I was looking at Andrew AND Katrina.... both on the same model run. Think I'd better go back to sleep lol

[Steve]

Ends up around Abilene (Abilene) as a 1008. So everyone from Slidell to Corpus and then East-Central Texas north gets some of this. Hopefully it stays minimal because it’s probably a few hundred million dollar storm. That’s not much, but you figure Slidell, nola, Metairie, Hammond, Baton Rouge, Lafayette, lake Charles, orange/Beaumont/Port Arthur, Houston, Corpus, etc would get impacts and power outages, that would be a new track we haven’t seen.

[Cpv17]

Ends up around Abilene (Abilene) as a 1008. So everyone from Slidell to Corpus and then East-Central Texas north gets some of this. Hopefully it stays minimal because it’s probably a few hundred million dollar storm. That’s not much, but you figure Slidell, nola, Metairie, Hammond, Baton Rouge, Lafayette, lake Charles, orange/Beaumont/Port Arthur, Houston, Corpus, etc would get impacts and power outages, that would be a new track we haven’t seen.

That high pressure is gonna be the key.

[Hammy]

Looks like the Euro is back to doing that strange thing again where it'll show something out in the long range, drop it for several days, and then show up again about 3-4 days before developing.

[drezee]

Do not write this off. I still think this will be a TC in the GOM. Pattern is tricky, but loaded. Euro maybe having issues bundling energy south and north of the islands. It could actually spin up before FL ...

I tried to let everyone know that the euro was having problems bundling because of islands. This has happened before. Get prepared!

I will explain a bit more:
If you look at the 850 mb vorticity @ 8/30 12z Euro run, you would see the model holding back vorticity because of interactions with the DR mountains. The physics have done this multiple times with storms that pass directly over DR. The difference is that southern part of the wave accelerated south of Cuba. This allowed addition inflow and bundling north of the islands. The convection last night in the mona passage indicated the unmodeled convergence. The new euro sees it now. We will likely see a scenario that a TC strengthens all the way into the coast. Frankly, this setup has a very high ceiling (may not achieve, but possible).

[Aric Dunn]

I figured the models would swing back once there was something to latch onto. The Euro has had this solution for many days besides the last few runs. the shear is likely going to be the key to development. if you all remember this wave was a dry wave just a couple days ago. it took that upper trough to enhance the convection. Obviously, there are a lot of variables as usual and it could turn either way. it could find the sweet spot or never develop. Given the setup getting a TS is very possible.

[Aric Dunn]

Do not write this off. I still think this will be a TC in the GOM. Pattern is tricky, but loaded. Euro maybe having issues bundling energy south and north of the islands. It could actually spin up before FL ...

I tried to let everyone know that the euro was having problems bundling because of islands. This has happened before. Get prepared!

I will explain a bit more:
If you look at the 850 mb vorticity @ 8/30 12z Euro run, you would see the model holding back vorticity because of interactions with the DR mountains. The physics have done this multiple times with storms that pass directly over DR. The difference is that southern part of the wave accelerated south of Cuba. This allowed addition inflow and bundling. The convection last night in the mona passage indicated the unmodeled convergence. The new euro sees it now. We will likely see a scenario that a TC strengthens all the way into the coast. Frankly, this setup has a very high ceiling (may not achieve, but possible).

Good observation, yeah there is always that element of land interaction helping to slow the southern portion of the wave allowing to axis to tilt negatively and along with enhanced upper divergence you will get a surface reflection. the question is will the timing be right...

[Cpv17]

When will the ensembles be out? They should be very interesting.