Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea (Is INVEST 91L)

[p1nheadlarry]

More on the 51 member 0Z EPS, which was much more active than any earlier run, along with Oct. 1-10 genesis climo:

13 H landfalls on FL (in addition to several TS hits):
- 5 Panhandle
- 5 Apalachicola to N of Tampa (includes Big Bend)
- 2 Tampa-Sarasota area
- 1 south tip


Not to be ignored, it also has 3 landfalls on LA (in addition to 2 TSs):
- 1 LA/MS border on 10/10
- 1 W LA 10/13
- 1 central LA 10/15


Tracks of TC with genesis 10/1-10 1851-2015:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/images/oct_1_10.png

Favors a NE mover over FL but a significant 2nd max (just like the 0Z EPS has) moving N to NE over LA, especially central and eastern LA.

OT but I'll be the guy. Nobody in Florida calls Apalachicola the Big Bend. Everything west and including Jefferson CO is the Panhandle, the rest the peninsula.

[Dean4Storms]

I’m now perplexed that this isn’t an Invest yet.

[floridasun78]

I’m now perplexed that this isn’t an Invest yet.

no invest because low is weak now off coast and storm are not organizing yet nhc dont invest by models only their look sat pic other data we likely see invest sat or sunday like some here been saying

[AnnularCane]

I’m now perplexed that this isn’t an Invest yet.

Invest declaration has taken forever this year for some reason.

[floridasun78]

I’m now perplexed that this isn’t an Invest yet.

Invest declaration has taken forever this year for some reason.

not thing organizing yet yes low by coast down their but enough be invest yet

[caneman]

More on the 51 member 0Z EPS, which was much more active than any earlier run, along with Oct. 1-10 genesis climo:

13 H landfalls on FL (in addition to several TS hits):
- 5 Panhandle
- 5 Apalachicola to N of Tampa (includes Big Bend)
- 2 Tampa-Sarasota area
- 1 south tip


Not to be ignored, it also has 3 landfalls on LA (in addition to 2 TSs):
- 1 LA/MS border on 10/10
- 1 W LA 10/13
- 1 central LA 10/15


Tracks of TC with genesis 10/1-10 1851-2015:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/images/oct_1_10.png

Favors a NE mover over FL but a significant 2nd max (just like the 0Z EPS has) moving N to NE over LA, especially central and eastern LA.

OT but I'll be the guy. Nobody in Florida calls Apalachicola the Big Bend. Everything west and including Jefferson CO is the Panhandle, the rest the peninsula.

Matter or preference maybe but I and many others have always classified Appalach. as the northern part of the big bend.

[Hammy]

I’m now perplexed that this isn’t an Invest yet.

Invest declaration has taken forever this year for some reason.

not thing organizing yet yes low by coast down their but enough be invest yet

There's something like three or four low pressures down there--they're probably trying to see which one takes hold since that'll determine what it does.

[LarryWx]

0Z UKMET FL panhandle into SE AL and then west central GA: way right of 24 hours ago; nearly identical to 0Z CMC; pressure at hour 144 of 979 mb looks funky since that's well inland

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 17.9N 86.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 06.10.2018 36 17.9N 86.9W 1005 27
0000UTC 07.10.2018 48 18.7N 86.5W 1005 27
1200UTC 07.10.2018 60 19.9N 87.2W 1003 35
0000UTC 08.10.2018 72 20.3N 87.1W 1001 34
1200UTC 08.10.2018 84 21.6N 88.4W 1001 35
0000UTC 09.10.2018 96 22.4N 88.4W 1000 33
1200UTC 09.10.2018 108 23.9N 88.6W 999 37
0000UTC 10.10.2018 120 26.0N 88.3W 997 37
1200UTC 10.10.2018 132 28.9N 87.0W 990 49
0000UTC 11.10.2018 144 32.0N 85.2W 979 36

[LarryWx]

JMA fwiw is still east of the consensus; 20N, 83W at hour 72; still weak

[LarryWx]

0Z GEFS 21 members: still quite busy and much more active than GFS

FL: 7 TS+ hits 10/11-14; 4 H (2 Apalach., Pan City, Big Bend) 3 TS (Tampa, Pensacola, Big Bend)

AL: 1 H 10/11

E LA: 1 TS 10/13

E LA/MS: 1 H 10/16-7

[LarryWx]

0Z FV3: H LA/MS border 10/9

[LarryWx]

0Z Euro: TS landfall AL 10/13

[AJC3]

0Z Euro: TS landfall AL 10/13

Both the 00Z ECM and GFS have now trended toward a slowdown/stall scenario for at least 2-3 days, over the central, or east-central GOMEX. At this point, it's a massively uncertain forecast. Given the utter lack of continuity in the OP-model runs over the past week, I'd have no choice but to lean very heavily on the ensembles. and emphasize "LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST" in any solution.

[Aric Dunn]

0Z Euro: TS landfall AL 10/13

Both the 00Z ECM and GFS have now trended toward a slowdown/stall scenario for at least 2-3 days, over the central, or east-central GOMEX. At this point, it's a massively uncertain forecast. Given the utter lack of continuity in the OP-model runs over the past week, I'd have no choice but to lean very heavily on the ensembles. and emphasize "LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST" in any solution.

lol.... my broken record self the past 2 days ...

and why I have been sticking to nothing past 24 to 48 hours..

[robbielyn]

More on the 51 member 0Z EPS, which was much more active than any earlier run, along with Oct. 1-10 genesis climo:

13 H landfalls on FL (in addition to several TS hits):
- 5 Panhandle
- 5 Apalachicola to N of Tampa (includes Big Bend)
- 2 Tampa-Sarasota area
- 1 south tip


Not to be ignored, it also has 3 landfalls on LA (in addition to 2 TSs):
- 1 LA/MS border on 10/10
- 1 W LA 10/13
- 1 central LA 10/15


Tracks of TC with genesis 10/1-10 1851-2015:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/images/oct_1_10.png

Favors a NE mover over FL but a significant 2nd max (just like the 0Z EPS has) moving N to NE over LA, especially central and eastern LA.

OT but I'll be the guy. Nobody in Florida calls Apalachicola the Big Bend. Everything west and including Jefferson CO is the Panhandle, the rest the peninsula.

Matter or preference maybe but I and many others have always classified Appalach. as the northern part of the big bend.

absolutely we call apalach points eastward to perry fl the big bend.

[caneman]

Looks to be really firing some convection this morning. I too am shocked that this isn't yet labeled an invest. Maybe this morning

[N2FSU]

Big shift east for the UK:

[N2FSU]

0z Euro ensembles

[Dean4Storms]

Big shift east for the UK:

https://imageshack.com/a/img924/3117/j1vIkW.jpg

Ha...right over my noggin!

[NDG]

A lot of mid level vortices rotating around the monsoonal gyre, including 97E.
Things usually take longer to consolidate with these big C.A. monsoonal lows and models always struggle with it, never fails. IMO.