2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1159498588042518529

[SFLcane]

Lol maybe we are done for the year...

 https://twitter.com/mpalmertwc/status/1159625508855828480

[Hammy]

From the last several tweets linked along with what the CFS has consistently shown after mid-September, this season just screams late-blooming version of 1985, which also had a nearly dead MDR

[TheStormExpert]

From one post showing a tweet saying ABOVE NORMAL U.S. landfall risk to the next post showing a tweet saying season cancel the Atlantic is BONE DRY. You can see why everyone is going crazier than usual with what to expect or not within the next 4-8 weeks or so.

[CyclonicFury]

From one post showing a tweet saying ABOVE NORMAL U.S. landfall risk to the next post showing a tweet saying season cancel the Atlantic is BONE DRY. You can see why everyone is going crazier than usual with what to expect or not within the next 4-8 weeks or so.

The ECMWF seems to have a dry bias in the Atlantic year in and year out. And Eric Blake said that TCs are too small to strongly show up in rainfall anomaly forecasts.

[gatorcane]

That’s a really warm Atlantic and note lack of El Niño. It is much warmer than 2018 at this time and similar to 2017 with anomalies centers a bit further north:

[Hurricaneman]

Another thing to watch for when the rising air moves into the Atlantic is for dry waves with vorticity as they move into the rising air as some of those went on to be nasty hurricanes like Fran, Elena, Andrew, and Katrina

[NotSparta]

Lol maybe we are done for the year...

https://twitter.com/mpalmertwc/status/1159625508855828480

Yeah, these models tend to overdo the dryness

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1151215167146885120

[SFLcane]

That’s a really warm Atlantic and note lack of El Niño. It is much warmer than 2018 at this time and similar to 2017 with anomalies centers a bit further north:

https://i.postimg.cc/fTxSFBJZ/anomw-8-8-2019.gif

https://i.postimg.cc/prvRnYxY/anomw-8-10-2017.gif

Dry air/subsidence is the issue.

[WeatherEmperor]

I dont know if there are any other NAO graphs or charts out there, but this one has kept showing NAO going positive end of August but then it reverts back to staying negative....which it has been for many months now. Makes you wonder if it will ever go into a sustained positive at all this season




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[psyclone]

As is usual, the weather fans are getting antsy...and some of that is justified given the calendar. But...we've been here before. Patience is needed...along with an ability to delineate possibility from probability. These traits are often lacking in the weather world. In addition, becoming conversant in landfall climo for your geographic region is essential. In my neck of the woods peak landfall season is the latter half of Sept through October.. a dead August is of minimal help to mitigate risk here. We've got a lot of gas in the tank. Let me refer you to my favorite hurricane season song...depeche mode's "enjoy the silence"...

[Patrick99]

Is a negative NAO really an inhibiting factor? I thought the NAO just helped influence potential tracks of anything that does form.

[cycloneye]

This is a great long discussion on twitter about 2004 and 2010 being possible analogs for 2019.

 https://twitter.com/tcrawf_nh/status/1159842292582080512




 https://twitter.com/TARCweather/status/1159850253492871168




 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1159844858741190656




 https://twitter.com/tcrawf_nh/status/1159846585150263299




 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1159846745406234624




 https://twitter.com/tcrawf_nh/status/1159847324983668736




 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1159849597365301248




 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1159850212258566146




 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1159850464437035013




 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1159851833801793539




 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1159852353178128384

[cycloneye]

CCKW for late August.

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1159853369785110528

[AutoPenalti]

The same “weak” MJO that helped spawn 2 canes in the west pac?

[SFLcane]

To all those season ending tweets please refer to this tweet below.

Bingo bingo bingo!!

 https://twitter.com/BMcNoldy/status/1159867978600419328

[Hammy]

Not to say that's what'll occur but wouldn't 90% yet to come still only be 33 for the season?

[AxaltaRacing24]

:uarrow: Not to say that's what'll occur but wouldn't 90% yet to come still only be 33 for the season?

no. what this tweet is saying is that upcoming storms in peak season are what truly define the season, not what happens before it. therefore, although it’s dead now. what happens during the peak is what truly determines if a season is above or below average.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/bennollweather/status/1159938006528098304

[cycloneye]

He is very emphatic on that.

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1159940009564299266