2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Blown Away]

06z - GFS continues pumping out model canes late in the run.

[SFLcane]

Long range CFS picking up on some potential aew's trying to develop.

[aspen]

Long range CFS picking up on some potential aew's trying to develop.

https://i.postimg.cc/Jzn5r18H/cfs.gif

Where can I find the CFS model? The links I used last season don’t work anymore.

[crownweather]

Long range CFS picking up on some potential aew's trying to develop.

https://i.postimg.cc/Jzn5r18H/cfs.gif

Where can I find the CFS model? The links I used last season don’t work anymore.

https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=noat&MODELL=cfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=pslv&HH=396&ARCHIV=0&ZOOM=0&PERIOD=&WMO=

[skyline385]

Looking at the ensembles, we might be in for a quiet few weeks with the MJO moving away. Probably will resume once it's over Africa.

[Kingarabian]

Long range Euro has something dipping south off the eastern seaboard and attempting to consolidate east of Florida.

[AlphaToOmega]

Much slower start to this season than either 2020 or 2021

[SoupBone]

Long range Euro has something dipping south off the eastern seaboard and attempting to consolidate east of Florida.

https://i.imgur.com/rztRM1u.gif

I wonder if this is setting up to be a season of Florida and east coast threats. It has the feel of one of those death ridge type of seasons.

[FireRat]

Much slower start to this season than either 2020 or 2021

Sure feels that way, after being spoiled by the past two years, it feels like we'd expect to be at the C or D storm already

[captainbarbossa19]

Long range Euro has something dipping south off the eastern seaboard and attempting to consolidate east of Florida.

https://i.imgur.com/rztRM1u.gif

I wonder if this is setting up to be a season of Florida and east coast threats. It has the feel of one of those death ridge type of seasons.

Honestly, I would not be surprised to see several Florida strikes, but I don't think the Gulf Coast is safe either. Even the death ridge is known to move and open the door at peak season.

[weeniepatrol]

Much slower start to this season than either 2020 or 2021

Much more NORMAL start than '20 and '21. Actually, we are still a month ahead of the average second named storm

[SFLcane]

[NotSparta]

https://i.postimg.cc/ZRwrjRMj/AE2-F3863-B73-C-4-F8-E-AF97-9588-B3677383.gif

Ah, the GFS and its fantasyland storms lol

[DorkyMcDorkface]

https://i.postimg.cc/ZRwrjRMj/AE2-F3863-B73-C-4-F8-E-AF97-9588-B3677383.gif

There's a slight long-range signal for a strong tropical wave appearing on EPS related to that same storm on the GFS, kinda doubt anything will come of it though.

[cycloneye]

https://i.postimg.cc/ZRwrjRMj/AE2-F3863-B73-C-4-F8-E-AF97-9588-B3677383.gif

Here in PR, we are in a moderate drought period so any strong wave is welcomed but not stronger than that.

[weeniepatrol]

https://i.postimg.cc/ZRwrjRMj/AE2-F3863-B73-C-4-F8-E-AF97-9588-B3677383.gif

This would be an ominous sign.. IF it verified. Good luck with that

[skyline385]

https://i.postimg.cc/ZRwrjRMj/AE2-F3863-B73-C-4-F8-E-AF97-9588-B3677383.gif

This would be an ominous sign.. IF it verified. Good luck with that

There are a few members on the EPS too but the EURO with its stronger ridging pushes them into the Carribean

[captainbarbossa19]

Long range Euro has something dipping south off the eastern seaboard and attempting to consolidate east of Florida.

https://i.imgur.com/rztRM1u.gif

Since it looks very unlikely 93L will become Bonnie, it would be interesting if we saw a similar situation like Bonnie (1986).

[wxman57]

I'm beginning to think that we'll see Bonnie form over the 4th of July weekend offshore of the Carolinas, starting out as thunderstorms along the trailing end of a cold front. Very common occurrence in early July. Arthur (2014) formed in early July in the same manner. Not saying a hurricane taking Arthur's track, just that it's the place most likely to produce Bonnie over the next couple of weeks. In addition, I'm taking a vacation day July 5th to have a 4-day weekend. The tropics generally develop a storm to spoil my vacation days. Don't tell the tropics I'm taking tomorrow off.

[Category5Kaiju]

One of them take Frances/Irma type track towards South Florida. Long range CFS so use with extreme caution but the fact its showing wave after wave trying to develop is a good sign a few make could surely make it west.

https://i.postimg.cc/mgJKD7YM/train.gif

https://i.postimg.cc/6qMdQLvN/cfs4-jpeg.gif

https://i.postimg.cc/xdGNCywF/cfs.gif

https://i.postimg.cc/Yq44gHcF/cfs7.gif

I genuinely still find it quite amazing and interesting that we actually have the technology to develop TC models that go out +85 days in advance. The day we are actually able to actually nail down distinct TCs that far out in time is the day many lives would be changed undeniably.