Teban54 wrote:chaser1 wrote:Teban54 wrote:I have been watching this too much for someone who doesn't know any better, but here's my interpretation of it:This evolution seems pretty similar to other runs in the past 3 days that developed the system in Western Caribbean, but all these runs have varying degrees of tilt, with this run probably being the most extreme. On the other hand, thanks to increased organization prior to entering the Caribbean (one of the strongest in the short term if we exclude those runs that form a TC in Eastern Caribbean), the wave holds itself together enough to actually sort out these issues in Western Caribbean.
- The wave fails to close off a circulation before entering the Caribbean, which is not surprising.
- Due to what's likely to be strong trades in Eastern Caribbean (and possibly some shear), even though the system still tries to organize during the first 12 hours in the Caribbean, it starts becoming decoupled very soon. Low-level vorticity starts outrunning mid-level rotation.
- Around 96-120 hrs, there's now a 5-degree gap between the low-level and mid-level vorts. The low-level center, which is further SW, tries to develop a LLC that reaches just offshore Nicaragua. But the MLC is over Jamaica, and it attempts -- and succeeds -- to work its way down to form a new LLC just west of there, which then absorbs the old LLC. Basically a center relocation.
- The system now finally becomes vertically stacked between Jamaica and Yucatan, and intensifies (down to 998 mb at 168 hrs as of writing).
I could be wrong with this, so it would be good for someone else to confirm.
Your thought experiment seems entirely plausible. Just to be fair, I wouldn't rule out the earlier GFS 18z model run either. I'm not referring to the extent of deepening but simply the implication depicting Caribbean development and some level of establishing run to run consistency.
To be clear, I was describing my understanding of the 0z GFS run, not suggesting a hypothetical "thought experiment" that I imagine the system can develop.
Yes I understood that. I think your interpretation of the GFS run is entirely plausible.
I interpreted this part of your post-
".....On the other hand, thanks to increased organization prior to entering the Caribbean (one of the strongest in the short term if we exclude those runs that form a TC in Eastern Caribbean), the wave holds itself together enough to actually sort out these issues in Western Caribbean",
as logically "hypothesizing" the end result by which the 0Z GFS run lead to a tropical cyclone evolving in the W Caribbean
