2014 EPAC Season

[cycloneye]

Invest 95E is up

[Yellow Evan]

NOGAPS develops the 0/20. So make that model #3 after CMC and HWRF.

[Yellow Evan]

An area of low pressure located about 1550 miles east-southeast of
the Big Island of Hawaii is producing disorganized cloudiness and
showers. Upper-level winds are only marginally favorable, and any
development of this system should be slow to occur while it moves
westward at about 10 mph during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

An area of low pressure is expected to form well southwest of the
southern coast of Mexico this weekend. Some gradual development of
this system is possible after that time while it moves westward at
about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

[Yellow Evan]

Iselle and Julio



Peak

[Yellow Evan]

Before I forget, the 10/20 is now 96E.

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
a tropical wave located several hundred miles south-southwest of
Acapulco, Mexico. Some gradual development of this system is
possible during the next few days while it moves westward at 10 to
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

[Yellow Evan]

Here comes Julio (and 97E)

A tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms
several hundred miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.
Environmental conditions are conducive for gradual development of
this system during the next several days while it moves westward at
10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Edit:



GFS still shows this becoming a hurricane.

[somethingfunny]

This might be the year the EPAC finally runs out of names. They get 24 instead of 21 (I don't know why the Atlantic doesn't just share that list of emergency XYZ names) but consider that we're about to see J in early August, while 2005 in the Atlantic didn't see J until the 3rd week of August.

It's going to be tough because of the spatial constraints on simultaneous cyclones in the EPAC basin but this has got to be close to a record pace so far.

[Yellow Evan]

This might be the year the EPAC finally runs out of names. They get 24 instead of 21 (I don't know why the Atlantic doesn't just share that list of emergency XYZ names) but consider that we're about to see J in early August, while 2005 in the Atlantic didn't see J until the 3rd week of August.

It's going to be tough because of the spatial constraints on simultaneous cyclones in the EPAC basin but this has got to be close to a record pace so far.

EPAC peaks sonoer than the ATL.

Given that we are in an inactive era, I highly doubt we'll run out of names and go Greek. We ran out of names in 1983, 1985, and 1992. No more storms formed in 1983 and 1992. In 1985, they added emergency XYZ names, one of which was used, and became the 2nd latest EPAC major.

[cycloneye]

Invest 97E is up

[Extratropical94]

This might be the year the EPAC finally runs out of names. They get 24 instead of 21 (I don't know why the Atlantic doesn't just share that list of emergency XYZ names) but consider that we're about to see J in early August, while 2005 in the Atlantic didn't see J until the 3rd week of August.

It's going to be tough because of the spatial constraints on simultaneous cyclones in the EPAC basin but this has got to be close to a record pace so far.

EPAC peaks sonoer than the ATL.

Given that we are in an inactive era, I highly doubt we'll run out of names and go Greek. We ran out of names in 1983, 1985, and 1992. No more storms formed in 1983 and 1992. In 1985, they added emergency XYZ names, one of which was used, and became the 2nd latest EPAC major.

Comparing 2014 to those years, we can see that we'd need a long streak of storms and a prolonged (2 or more months) period of high activity in the EPAC to go greek this year. On August 1, 1983 was up to the letter H (Henriette), 1985 was already up to L (Linda) and 1992 was up to J (Javier). Even if this year is already further down the list than 1983, don't forget that the basin would need a wave train with lots or INVESTs like it is now until at least mid-October.

[Yellow Evan]

This might be the year the EPAC finally runs out of names. They get 24 instead of 21 (I don't know why the Atlantic doesn't just share that list of emergency XYZ names) but consider that we're about to see J in early August, while 2005 in the Atlantic didn't see J until the 3rd week of August.

It's going to be tough because of the spatial constraints on simultaneous cyclones in the EPAC basin but this has got to be close to a record pace so far.

EPAC peaks sooner than the ATL.

Given that we are in an inactive era, I highly doubt we'll run out of names and go Greek. We ran out of names in 1983, 1985, and 1992. No more storms formed in 1983 and 1992. In 1985, they added emergency XYZ names, one of which was used, and became the 2nd latest EPAC major.

Comparing 2014 to those years, we can see that we'd need a long streak of storms and a prolonged (2 or more months) period of high activity in the EPAC to go greek this year. On August 1, 1983 was up to the letter H (Henriette), 1985 was already up to L (Linda) and 1992 was up to J (Javier). Even if this year is already further down the list than 1983, don't forget that the basin would need a wave train with lots or INVESTs like it is now until at least mid-October.

If we have 2013's activity from here on out, we'd make it to W. So it's certainly doable, given that the J storm seems imminent. Or we could be like 1983, and just have steady activity from here on out.

[Kingarabian]

EPAC is swinging hard at Hawaii. Busy August.

[Yellow Evan]

GFS has been hinting at a Kenna long range for a while now.

[Yellow Evan]

CMC shows it by day 10, but it is the CMC.

[somethingfunny]

This might be the year the EPAC finally runs out of names. They get 24 instead of 21 (I don't know why the Atlantic doesn't just share that list of emergency XYZ names) but consider that we're about to see J in early August, while 2005 in the Atlantic didn't see J until the 3rd week of August.

It's going to be tough because of the spatial constraints on simultaneous cyclones in the EPAC basin but this has got to be close to a record pace so far.

EPAC peaks sonoer than the ATL.

Given that we are in an inactive era, I highly doubt we'll run out of names and go Greek. We ran out of names in 1983, 1985, and 1992. No more storms formed in 1983 and 1992. In 1985, they added emergency XYZ names, one of which was used, and became the 2nd latest EPAC major.

Comparing 2014 to those years, we can see that we'd need a long streak of storms and a prolonged (2 or more months) period of high activity in the EPAC to go greek this year. On August 1, 1983 was up to the letter H (Henriette), 1985 was already up to L (Linda) and 1992 was up to J (Javier). Even if this year is already further down the list than 1983, don't forget that the basin would need a wave train with lots or INVESTs like it is now until at least mid-October.

1992's Javier formed July 30 but its' Kay didn't form until August 18 -- and Lester on August 20, Madeline/Newton August 27... August 1992 only had 4 storms + a failed TD on Aug.10.

We're keeping pace with 1992 quite well and that's the only season that's made it to Zeke or Zelda. We're ahead of 1983 by a storm or two but behind 1985 by a couple right now.

For folks concerned about a lack of hurricanes in the EPAC compared to all of the weak named storms we've seen (and we're currently 9/3/2) ..... On August 1, 1983 was 8/4/2, 1985 was 12/4/4, and the recordholder 1992 was 10/5/4 (soon to be 10/6/4 but Javier hadn't become a hurricane yet, like Iselle has yet to do this year).

[Yellow Evan]

EPAC peaks sonoer than the ATL.

Given that we are in an inactive era, I highly doubt we'll run out of names and go Greek. We ran out of names in 1983, 1985, and 1992. No more storms formed in 1983 and 1992. In 1985, they added emergency XYZ names, one of which was used, and became the 2nd latest EPAC major.

Comparing 2014 to those years, we can see that we'd need a long streak of storms and a prolonged (2 or more months) period of high activity in the EPAC to go greek this year. On August 1, 1983 was up to the letter H (Henriette), 1985 was already up to L (Linda) and 1992 was up to J (Javier). Even if this year is already further down the list than 1983, don't forget that the basin would need a wave train with lots or INVESTs like it is now until at least mid-October.

1992's Javier formed July 30 but its' Kay didn't form until August 18 -- and Lester on August 20, Madeline/Newton August 27... August 1992 only had 4 storms + a failed TD on Aug.10.

We're keeping pace with 1992 quite well and that's the only season that's made it to Zeke or Zelda. We're ahead of 1983 by a storm or two but behind 1985 by a couple right now.

For folks concerned about a lack of hurricanes in the EPAC compared to all of the weak named storms we've seen (and we're currently 9/3/2) ..... On August 1, 1983 was 8/4/2, 1985 was 12/4/4, and the recordholder 1992 was 10/5/4 (soon to be 10/6/4 but Javier hadn't become a hurricane yet, like Iselle has yet to do this year).

We are 9/4/2 now. It's semi-doable, given that El Nino years having later finishes. But given this is part of an inactive era, I would not count on it.

[somethingfunny]

Just being close enough to consider the possibility is fun

[Yellow Evan]

Just being close enough to consider the possibility is fun

True. Who would have thought at this time last year we could have a record-breaking season?

[Hurricane_Luis]

http://i57.tinypic.com/30usi08.png

GFS has been hinting at a Kenna long range for a while now.

Kenna...You mean Karina.

[Yellow Evan]

http://i57.tinypic.com/30usi08.png

GFS has been hinting at a Kenna long range for a while now.

Kenna...You mean Karina.

Right, I live in a pre-2002 world sometimes.